Maybe someone can answer this. Right now the S9 miners are mining about 0.0025 BTC per day or roughly 0.0775 BTC per month on Slushpool. The mining difficulty level has been on a steady increase of about 4.92% (average over the past few months
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty). Lets call it 5% for simplicity. This can simply be attributed to more miners coming online which also means less profit being shared among all miners. We can assume the inc. in difficulty to be directly correlated to the reward and can expect this decrease across the board in all BTC mined with the increase in miners. We also have the halving of BTC expected in June 2020.
Assuming we model out the BTC being mined till 2022 with this 5% decrease and the halving we end up mining only a fraction of a Bitcoin or 0.001879. Some of the lowest costs of electricity are around $50-60 USD per Kw and at 1.4 Kw you are looking at $84/mo. Obviously at today's price of $10K we aren't making much profit ($19) at those numbers. But in order to break even we would still need a price of ~$75K. A 750% increase. And even then its not a profitable model. My question is, I guess, am I correct to assume that the amount of BTC mined per month will decrease by roughly 98% from today's value by 2022 and in order for Bitcoin to stay a valid model the price needs to hit around $100K for miners to stick around?
