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聊聊比特币定投
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Topic: 聊聊比特币定投 (Read 295 times)
caosz
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聊聊比特币定投
April 20, 2022, 01:32:01 AM
#1
惊讶的发现中文区竟然没有人聊过这个话题,而本论坛按理来讲是调性最适合定投的。
我个人对定投的态度还是有转变的。
18-19年我对定投的态度都是“弱者才定投”,“定投都是骗人的,3年了还不是亏钱”。
但是20年市场大跌,后面又创新高,让我明白短期行情无法预测,我开始对定投这个事情持比较积极的态度。
个人觉得:
1、定投的本质逻辑在短期涨跌无法预测,而又长期看好。
2、优点是能降低平均持仓成本,缺点是不可能任意时点都赚钱。
3、策略上定时定量比较重要,每月一次或每周一次都可以。
更多阅读:
1、李笑来的《定投改变人生》是个不错的书,它的官网原文见
李笑来聊定投
2、我个人也整理了我对定投的看法,见
定投比特币靠谱吗?
抛砖引玉,也听听大家的想法。
Hanseihou
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Re: 聊聊比特币定投
April 20, 2022, 05:14:54 PM
#2
熊市适合定投,牛市适合一次性投资
wikisem
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加密货币价值投资需不需要择时?
April 22, 2022, 04:37:49 AM
#3
加密货币价值投资需不需要择时?
有些投资大佬,如戴维史文森等认为:价值投资是不要考虑择时的,而你经常说的,对象,时机,力度三要素,显然是考虑择时。本人一直没有很好理解价值投资为什么不提倡择时,后来想到其重视安全边际或低估值时,实际上已经把择时考虑进来,因为大多数时候,估值较低时,也很可能是较好的选择时机,如果安全边际足够,确实也不需要择时了。你对此,有何看法。
对这个问题首先要定义什么是择时?如果择时意味着总是试图精确地判断市场计划,那么择时与其说不重要,不如说是不可能。如果择时代表着选择更好的投资机会出手,那么就像你说的,价值投资的体现中早就有这个考虑因素,安全边际就是择时的核心指标,恐惧贪婪论就是择时的基本原则。
比特币的黄金时代
比特币的黄金时代
从更长的时间维度来看,以btc比特币为例,即便你购买在2018年的牛市的最顶点1万多美金,相对于现在的价格来讲也是很便宜的。如果我们把时间维度拉长,比特币在以前的牛熊价格的波动起伏也会变成一直上涨的曲线。但从周期轮替的维度来看,市场波动极大,可观上存在着利用市场非理性因素去避免损失或者扩大收益的基础。
当然,投资的落脚点永远在于项目本身,以BTC的分叉币BCH为例,再也回不到历史最高点。所以要结合项目的特征来考虑这个问题,对于长期增长价值的项目而言,其初期状态的静态高估值和昂贵其实也不必择时,因为未来的累积回报远远超过短期择时的贡献。
所以最终我们会发现,问题回到我们自己身上。你是什么能力特征才是最关键的。如果你具有敏锐的商业洞察力和前瞻性,并且资金状况稳定,性格可以承受波动,那么坚持优质项目长期持有而极大忽略时机因素(当然买入阶段需要考虑,这里指持有阶段)是比较合适的。若能力中庸一些,可能大多数情况以持有为主,忽律一般性的时机差异,但对市场极端态势则必须做出反应。这两者各有其优劣,公共之处都是不把时机作为一种低层次的交易手段,而是从项目价值角度出发,以安全边际和赔率为准绳的原则性,战略性要素进行低频次但关键时刻的决策选项。
原文地址:
https://mirror.xyz/0x6ACb28b8FF66AbAB7959355697fAaF348099996b/jIgJfULr9iaBFpDsFspDqWrzsFuNHU865VFSWLWyg5w
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