Will August bring an additional 200TH?

[kaerf]

What's the projection using the 30 day average?

[rolling]

The 30 day average will be at around 400 TH/s at the end of the month.  The 7 day average seems to be the best statistical indicator though.

[Ytterbium]

BTCGarden claims they'll put 200-300THash online in september, check it out: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=213172.msg2761067#msg2761067

I hesitate to guess at what will happen after August, but it is going to be insane...probably over 1PH in November.

I haven't been following BTCGarden too closely, but are they still doing 130nm? The power needed to deploy 200-300TH of 130nm chips is not trivial. I'd really be surprised if they had no delays after September...every other ASICs producer has had delays after getting chips.

They've had trouble shipping their chips.  They haven't had trouble getting their chips, as far as we know.

I am projecting around 600 TH/s by the end of Aug.

Eh, there's no reason to think the hashrate growth can be modeled with a simple exponential function anymore. It's all about how many companies decide to make chips, and how many they make. There's no way to predict that.

[rolling]

Yeah, you wouldn't think that there was such a good statistical fit but the growth rate has been pretty predictable since April.

[toddtervy]

Let's take a look at what's coming online soon:

Lower bound: 70+50+20+15+15+30 = 180TH
More likely: 100+50+20+15+15+30 = 210TH


If someone has better guesstimates about what ASICMINER is going to do, I'd be interested in those numbers.


The bloodbath coming in the fall is going to be even worse

That would a good percentage up.  But with the evidence, I think that's what we'll see.  Total hashrate right now is around 270 from the webpage I checked.  We could double that up if your figures are low.

[toddtervy]

100TH should come online almost immediately after they get their PCBs (assuming no PCB flaws). 100TH is only 250 of the 400GH units and they expect to have those deployed in a day.

After August it's a whole other story. Bitfury, KNC, BFL, Avalon chips, several other ASICs projects...

At some point things will need to plateau though. There's only ~108K BTC generated a month and at $100/BTC that's only $10.8M to be mined a month. I see that as the limiting factor on how fast difficulty will grow. That plus power consumption. ASICMINER is probably hitting a limit with their solo mining due to power concerns since they are currently still on 130nm (pure speculation).

At a price of $100/BTC I see the difficulty increase slowing down in 12-18 months. Obviously, as the price of USD/BTC goes up, so will the diff.

I see this happening eventually, and depending on how much the Asics are costing should effect whether they decide to deploy more Asics.  Let's say I was thinking of deploying 10 TH/s of mining devices.  I could calculate how much I expect to earn based on the current total hashrate, the bitcoin exchange rate, how much production cost, and then enter in estimate of how much hash rate will increase in future to determine how fast profit will drop off.  Say BTC price is $100, 108k BTC/ month available.  At 270 TH/s total hash rate if I add my 10 TH/s I will have 3.5%, and expect 12.6 BTC, $1300 per day or so.  If hash rate goes up 20x to 5400 TH/s, my 10 TH/s will only mine maybe 0.6 BTC, not so much anymore.  Electricity cost and production cost becomes a bigger factor and profitability down a lot.  Unless BTC goes up the plateau will show up when there's no longer profit.

[kaerf]

Half way through august and half way to +200TH =P

The 100TH mine has been delayed a few days, so this run up has probably been attributed to Avalon B3 and BFL. Maybe those missing avalon chips are hashing somewhere too.

[id10tothe9]

it seems the exponential fit of 7 days average is toooo slow
it hit 500TH/s and it's not 8/19th yet!!
is there a simple tool online to create these graphs?

[rolling]

I am showing the 7 day average right now is 433 TH/s.

[rolling]

7 Day average is now 525.72.  Its looking like the projection was pretty close...

[smoothie]

BTCGarden claims they'll put 200-300THash online in september, check it out: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=213172.msg2761067#msg2761067

I hesitate to guess at what will happen after August, but it is going to be insane...probably over 1PH in November.

I haven't been following BTCGarden too closely, but are they still doing 130nm? The power needed to deploy 200-300TH of 130nm chips is not trivial. I'd really be surprised if they had no delays after September...every other ASICs producer has had delays after getting chips.

They've had trouble shipping their chips.  They haven't had trouble getting their chips, as far as we know.

I am projecting around 600 TH/s by the end of Aug.

Eh, there's no reason to think the hashrate growth can be modeled with a simple exponential function anymore. It's all about how many companies decide to make chips, and how many they make. There's no way to predict that.

The exponential graph is spot on prediction so far.

[GigaWave]

Seems like a 100TH kick in the last 24 hrs. Anyone know where it came from?

[Heutenamos]

Seems like a 100TH kick in the last 24 hrs. Anyone know where it came from?

Maybe just a luck. Wait a bit more

[readonlyaccess]

Looks like the estimate might be a little low.

bitcoincharts.com = Network total   672.653 Thash/s

[rolling]

Looks like the estimate might be a little low.

bitcoincharts.com = Network total   672.653 Thash/s

That's the rate over a very short period which could include some luck.  We will have to see it it holds.  Currently showing 702 TH/s.  7 Day average is still about 550 TH/s.

[GigaWave]

If it holds at 670'ish TH, the stage is set for 100 Million difficulty.