Sorry to be a bearer of bad news but this idea is a non starter.
Why would anyone trust someone in china to hold their money? I do not trust my local UK bank much for that matter. Where are the guarantees that even if you are an upstanding gentleman and a paragon of virtue, someone simply does not break in and takes the money? Where are the guarantees that some government stoodge does not show up at your place and say "I am from government, I am here to help."? I can list hundreds of hypothetical adverse scenarios all which would have some fairly significant probability.
Moreover, in a purely hypothetical case that you at one point disappear with all the money, particularly being all that anonymous and in unknown location. What recourse your depositors would have? Who would they sue and in which court of law? Or where should they show up to shoot some kneecaps?
One surety I have is that when my BTC's are in my wallet.dat heavily encrypted and distributed for storage in multiply places they are more or less safe and even then there are some risks. But why any reasonable person would swap it on some yuans held by some guy in china?
As an Information Security professional I will tell you now that there is no need to do sophisticated risk analysis, the answer is obvious: no way any sane person would prefer "yuans held for him/her by some guy in china" to heavily encrypted and backuped wallet.dat in own pocket. As simple as that.
I suggest you to think about another business plan. Sorry again, But it would be a disservice to tell you anything else.
P.S. Amnesia might be a very expensive illness in bitcoin world ;-)
I do not understand what you mean by "Amnesia might be a very expensive illness in bitcoin world", could you explain, I am sorry I missed the joke.
But for your post, I agree with almost everything you say, except....
To prevent government people (or anyone else) from just coming and taking everything the exchange itself is a secret. No one except me knows where it is, and no one knows who I am except for my online persona (which, if bitcoin becomes successful will probably be worth more than my real identity). This is the whole point of it being in a secret location.
For bitcoin to succeed people must be able to enter and exit the bitcoin economy by being able to exchange currency. This means that there must be reserves of these currencies that someone doing the exchange must have in order to keep liquidity. So exchangers must have reserves, enough to cover the needed exchanges.
If bitcoin becomes successful it will quickly be banned by governments around the world, in the EU and US money laundering and terrorism laws will be used to take all assets(in other countries they don't even need that excuse). Anyone doing exchange openly will be put in prison and have everything taken from them. This is more obvious for someone like me, where I am; but it also applies to you where you are, you just don't realise it yet (some do).
And you are also right about what is to stop me from just taking these reserves and leaving. I don't want to hold a lot of cash, or btc for other people, this is a huge responsibility. But until there are enough people buying and selling btc for yuan I need to provide some liquidity so new people can start using bitcoins. The more people that use bitcoins the more my bitcoins are worth.
What is to stop me? Incentive to make more btc, I will make much more operating an exchange and keeping the spread than a once off theft.
What would happen if I left with all the money and btc? Those who have saved or invested would lose it, very simple. Buyer beware. However this is not all that different from what happens in the real world, how many people have lost money from big companies defrauding them? And how many of those responsible have been put in prison or even fined.
The answer is simple, but more obvious, buyer beware, the only difference is there is no illusion of security or protection here.
Yes you can be sure of btc when they are in your wallet.dat, so keep them there, it is a bad idea to put all your money into only one thing. I have only been able to accept small amounts, and have had all my reserves bought for the next month or two (that is, new reserves that I introduce, a kind of futures contract). Keep things small so if something bad does happen you don't lose a lot.
Currently I have enough reserves.