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Author Topic: Pool mining is dead...  (Read 1572 times)
bbxx (OP)
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September 09, 2013, 11:12:57 AM
 #1

Have look at this...


256919   6  minutes    128   1,507.06 BTC   98.201.114.81   51.29
256918   10 minutes   394   2,971.58 BTC   176.255.75.174   166.18
256917   19 minutes   408   3,895.86 BTC   BTC Guild   147.28
256916   30 minutes   302   1,653.08 BTC   176.255.75.174   115.40
256915   36 minutes   281   1,229.68 BTC   64.136.242.202   104.98
256914   39 minutes   692   7,915.62 BTC   98.201.114.81   240.06
256913   1 hminutes   333   6,473.08 BTC   60.29.146.165   170.03
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September 09, 2013, 11:16:35 AM
 #2


bbxx (OP)
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September 09, 2013, 11:19:56 AM
 #3

Last hour, 8 blocks, pools  got only 12%
Unknown 88%

Goverment? Bitfury? Who is hacking the network?
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September 09, 2013, 12:05:36 PM
 #4

Last hour, 8 blocks, pools  got only 12%
Unknown 88%

Goverment? Bitfury? Who is hacking the network?

Variance is so high with mining that using statistics for a single hour is meaningless. Come back when pools are down to 12% network share for 36hr or more.
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September 09, 2013, 12:12:42 PM
 #5

Last hour, 8 blocks, pools  got only 12%
Unknown 88%

Goverment? Bitfury? Who is hacking the network?

Variance is so high with mining that using statistics for a single hour is meaningless. Come back when pools are down to 12% network share for 36hr or more.

large part of this "unknown" is ghash.io. Look at this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77000.0
pikeadz
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September 09, 2013, 01:30:04 PM
 #6

Have look at this...


256919   6  minutes    128   1,507.06 BTC   98.201.114.81   51.29
256918   10 minutes   394   2,971.58 BTC   176.255.75.174   166.18
256917   19 minutes   408   3,895.86 BTC   BTC Guild   147.28
256916   30 minutes   302   1,653.08 BTC   176.255.75.174   115.40
256915   36 minutes   281   1,229.68 BTC   64.136.242.202   104.98
256914   39 minutes   692   7,915.62 BTC   98.201.114.81   240.06
256913   1 hminutes   333   6,473.08 BTC   60.29.146.165   170.03


A sample size of 7.  Clearly you've done your research.
bbxx (OP)
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September 09, 2013, 02:37:57 PM
 #7

Have look at this...


256919   6  minutes    128   1,507.06 BTC   98.201.114.81   51.29
256918   10 minutes   394   2,971.58 BTC   176.255.75.174   166.18
256917   19 minutes   408   3,895.86 BTC   BTC Guild   147.28
256916   30 minutes   302   1,653.08 BTC   176.255.75.174   115.40
256915   36 minutes   281   1,229.68 BTC   64.136.242.202   104.98
256914   39 minutes   692   7,915.62 BTC   98.201.114.81   240.06
256913   1 hminutes   333   6,473.08 BTC   60.29.146.165   170.03


A sample size of 7.  Clearly you've done your research.

i have been studing economics and statistics.

Please remind me such event in the past. This is an indicator of new era. Community mining is shrinking...
crazyates
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September 09, 2013, 02:38:05 PM
 #8

There's a bug in Bitcoind that crashed a lot of miners (sort of). I know my 0.8.3 had to rebuild the entire blockchain, and other people are saying the same thing. I guess some pools went down when this happened, lowering the network.

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bcp19
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September 09, 2013, 03:18:35 PM
 #9

Have look at this...


256919   6  minutes    128   1,507.06 BTC   98.201.114.81   51.29
256918   10 minutes   394   2,971.58 BTC   176.255.75.174   166.18
256917   19 minutes   408   3,895.86 BTC   BTC Guild   147.28
256916   30 minutes   302   1,653.08 BTC   176.255.75.174   115.40
256915   36 minutes   281   1,229.68 BTC   64.136.242.202   104.98
256914   39 minutes   692   7,915.62 BTC   98.201.114.81   240.06
256913   1 hminutes   333   6,473.08 BTC   60.29.146.165   170.03


A sample size of 7.  Clearly you've done your research.

i have been studing economics and statistics.

Please remind me such event in the past. This is an indicator of new era. Community mining is shrinking...
You're using blockchain.info which is your 1st mistake.  You're using far too few data points which is your 2nd mistake.

Try using this:


You've got a MUCH clearer picture of where blocks are going.

I do not suffer fools gladly... "Captain!  We're surrounded!"
I embrace my inner Kool-Aid.
pikeadz
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September 09, 2013, 03:56:36 PM
 #10

Have look at this...


256919   6  minutes    128   1,507.06 BTC   98.201.114.81   51.29
256918   10 minutes   394   2,971.58 BTC   176.255.75.174   166.18
256917   19 minutes   408   3,895.86 BTC   BTC Guild   147.28
256916   30 minutes   302   1,653.08 BTC   176.255.75.174   115.40
256915   36 minutes   281   1,229.68 BTC   64.136.242.202   104.98
256914   39 minutes   692   7,915.62 BTC   98.201.114.81   240.06
256913   1 hminutes   333   6,473.08 BTC   60.29.146.165   170.03


A sample size of 7.  Clearly you've done your research.

i have been studing economics and statistics.

Please remind me such event in the past. This is an indicator of new era. Community mining is shrinking...

First you claim it's dead.  Then with a little resistance, you then say it is "shrinking."  If I simply said "no it isn't," maybe your next reply will be "It is growing." 

Don't make sensationalist claims and then you won't have to rephrase what you really mean. Wink
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September 09, 2013, 04:18:03 PM
 #11

how much do they spend in electricity to pull that off? Shocked
cp1
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September 09, 2013, 04:22:22 PM
 #12

0% of the last block was mined by a pool.  Pools are dead!   Long live pools.

Guide to armory offline install on USB key:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=241730.0
vesperwillow
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September 09, 2013, 05:59:44 PM
 #13

Have look at this...


256919   6  minutes    128   1,507.06 BTC   98.201.114.81   51.29
256918   10 minutes   394   2,971.58 BTC   176.255.75.174   166.18
256917   19 minutes   408   3,895.86 BTC   BTC Guild   147.28
256916   30 minutes   302   1,653.08 BTC   176.255.75.174   115.40
256915   36 minutes   281   1,229.68 BTC   64.136.242.202   104.98
256914   39 minutes   692   7,915.62 BTC   98.201.114.81   240.06
256913   1 hminutes   333   6,473.08 BTC   60.29.146.165   170.03


A sample size of 7.  Clearly you've done your research.

i have been studing economics and statistics.

Please remind me such event in the past. This is an indicator of new era. Community mining is shrinking...

7 data points is a leading indicator?

More like a blip on a scatterplot.

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September 10, 2013, 01:41:25 AM
 #14

Have look at this...


256919   6  minutes    128   1,507.06 BTC   98.201.114.81   51.29
256918   10 minutes   394   2,971.58 BTC   176.255.75.174   166.18
256917   19 minutes   408   3,895.86 BTC   BTC Guild   147.28
256916   30 minutes   302   1,653.08 BTC   176.255.75.174   115.40
256915   36 minutes   281   1,229.68 BTC   64.136.242.202   104.98
256914   39 minutes   692   7,915.62 BTC   98.201.114.81   240.06
256913   1 hminutes   333   6,473.08 BTC   60.29.146.165   170.03


A sample size of 7.  Clearly you've done your research.

i have been studing economics and statistics.

Please remind me such event in the past. This is an indicator of new era. Community mining is shrinking...

That is not a suspicious random occurrence.

Unkown is 27% of network. Chances of unknown receiving 7 consecutive blocks is 27%^7, or 1 in ~9560. A block is found every 10 minutes. So, in roughly every 9560*10 minutes (about 66 days) you should see this pattern with a probability of 1.



bbxx (OP)
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September 10, 2013, 11:51:14 AM
 #15

Have look at this...


256919   6  minutes    128   1,507.06 BTC   98.201.114.81   51.29
256918   10 minutes   394   2,971.58 BTC   176.255.75.174   166.18
256917   19 minutes   408   3,895.86 BTC   BTC Guild   147.28
256916   30 minutes   302   1,653.08 BTC   176.255.75.174   115.40
256915   36 minutes   281   1,229.68 BTC   64.136.242.202   104.98
256914   39 minutes   692   7,915.62 BTC   98.201.114.81   240.06
256913   1 hminutes   333   6,473.08 BTC   60.29.146.165   170.03


A sample size of 7.  Clearly you've done your research.

i have been studing economics and statistics.

Please remind me such event in the past. This is an indicator of new era. Community mining is shrinking...

That is not a suspicious random occurrence.

Unkown is 27% of network. Chances of unknown receiving 7 consecutive blocks is 27%^7, or 1 in ~9560. A block is found every 10 minutes. So, in roughly every 9560*10 minutes (about 66 days) you should see this pattern with a probability of 1.


Next block was also unknown so once per 2 years is much closer estimate...

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