Counting Bitcoin Holders

[Rob Lister]

I'm looking for a estimate as to the total number of people holding BTC. 

Actually, I'm looking for the means by which such a number can be estimated.

I was going to put some qualifiers on 'holding BTC' but any definition might limit otherwise useful answers.  Therefore, a useful answer must define a holder to some degree.

Any ideas?

[spruce]

Does the bitcoin software show a count of how many computers are online and running it at any one time?

[Rob Lister]

Does the bitcoin software show a count of how many computers are online and running it at any one time?

Any way to expand on that?  For example, I don't run my BTC client all the time.

Still, that would be a useful metric in itself.

[froggy]

It doesn't quite answer your question but some interesting statistics from http://bitcoinwatch.com/ which you may want to base some assumptions/guesses around:

Total BTC    6,843,950 BTC
Market Cap based on latest prices    89,795,362 USD
Transactions last 24h    7,978
Transactions avg. per hour    332.42

[Rob Lister]

It doesn't quite answer your question but some interesting statistics from http://bitcoinwatch.com/ which you may want to base some assumptions/guesses around:

Total BTC    6,843,950 BTC
Market Cap based on latest prices    89,795,362 USD
Transactions last 24h    7,978
Transactions avg. per hour    332.42

That is an excellent start.  What does that transaction count represent?  Say Bob buys a widget from Alice for 1.76BTC.  How many transactions take place (sorry if that seems is a dumb question).

Is there any way to establish the average transaction amount?

[crazy-pilot]

Anyway, we might have up to 60% calculating error... One person may have several wallets (and thousands of addresses inside 'em), there are lot of "technical" wallets for different services. It's all about crystal gazing.

[spruce]

Does the bitcoin software show a count of how many computers are online and running it at any one time?

Any way to expand on that?  For example, I don't run my BTC client all the time.

Still, that would be a useful metric in itself.

If that information is available, at least you could say something like "Right now there are 14,761 active wallets and 28 days ago at the same time of day there were 12,134" or whatever.

It would be similar to Skype saying "27,010,209 people online," which is what it says right now.

[Mageant]

We know that there are about 100,000 Mt. Gox accounts. If you assume (I'm just blindly guessing) that only every third Bitcoin owner also has an Mt. Gox account that would be 300,000 Bitcoin owners. Perhaps you could do a poll asking how many people do or do not have a Mt. Gox account, that would give you a better estimate.

[error]

That is an excellent start.  What does that transaction count represent?  Say Bob buys a widget from Alice for 1.76BTC.  How many transactions take place (sorry if that seems is a dumb question).

That's one transaction.