1. Too new - just a few hundred billion - grain sand in the desert - lucrative market of sharks because they also manipulated.
Being new is not a reason it can't die.
2. From 1 inferred capitalization now nearly 400 billion. Bitcoin accounted for 35.6%. That means 140 billion. Someone e predicted 5000, we just do a simple math. If btc is 5000 then the market cap will lose 40% = "bitcoin to 80 billion - the total market is 240 billion .... If this number really happened, I would say at least 70-80% of the new investors running long because the milestone is 5000 / milestone within 4 months of the crypto ... who dare to put money into a game too risky??? If it was me, then I would not. Sharks also understand that, and they do not have the money to spare and lose their prey. Squeezed 5000 do not know 20,000 BTC enough not.
If you're doing simple math why do you calculate the whole crypto marketcap , then divide it by the percentage
BTC represent in that market and not directly, 16,8 millions
BTC x 5000$ (in your scenario).
But I don't have a clue what you're trying to say after that, and I doubt you have either.
3. Blockchain applications increasingly show strength and potential. Technology will not die unless people want to go back to prehistory.
Technology that was either too advanced or to costly or just didn't fit anywhere died. A lot of times.
And we kept on living in a modern society, humanity will not turn to stones and sticks if the blockchain will disappear.
As for the application...if you're referring to ICOs, I've yet to see one that actually delivered something.