The first chartist - this will surprise you.

[Jet Cash]

Studying charts has become an extremely complex science, but who was the first person to use charts, and when? The  answer will surprise you, and it shows that the science is much older that you probably expected.

Francis Bacon ( 1597-1625) was the bursar at an Oxford college, and he was responsible for investing some of the college wealth. He developed a price movement theory which became known as " Random Walk" ( Brownian movement in physics ). Here is an article that discusses it.
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/what-is-the-random-walk-theory/

Francis Bacon made a lot of money for his college by basing a short term trading strategy on his random walk analysis,

[Cobalt9317]

Thank you for a wonderful theory you've shared to us.
I thought you were only a nomadic person, but you actually find stuff like this, that will only benefit a trader.

P.S Indeed an excellent knowledge has been transferred to me.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Studying charts has become an extremely complex science, but who was the first person to use charts, and when? The  answer will surprise you, and it shows that the science is much older that you probably expected.

Francis Bacon ( 1597-1625) was the bursar at an Oxford college, and he was responsible for investing some of the college wealth. He developed a price movement theory which became known as " Random Walk" ( Brownian movement in physics ). Here is an article that discusses it.
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/what-is-the-random-walk-theory/

Francis Bacon made a lot of money for his college by basing a short term trading strategy on his random walk analysis,

Interesting. I have just discovered that I was a believer in the random walk theory even though I didn’t know it by that name, as I don’t believe in chart prediction and I’ve got money in stock funds rather than shares.

However, the article doesn’t mention Francis Bacon (it starts the brief history of the concept in 1863).

Could you provide a link for Bacon being the creator of the random walk concept? I think what you say doesn't match what the corporatefinanceinstitute says:

"In contrast to the random walk theory is the contention of believers in technical analysis, those who think that future price movements can be predicted based on trends, patterns, and historical price action."

According to them, the random walk theory is opposed to price prediction charts. It is a long-term buy-and-hold strategy.

[Palmerson]

I don't trust that theory. The theory takes as a basis the price index. But this figure is a secondary factor. The price responds to certain conditions. The price drop is not an accident. On the cryptocurrency exchange, volatility depends on the coordinated actions of whales. Manual control of the markets makes it impossible to predict the behavior of prices.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I don't trust that theory. The theory takes as a basis the price index. But this figure is a secondary factor. The price responds to certain conditions. The price drop is not an accident. On the cryptocurrency exchange, volatility depends on the coordinated actions of whales. Manual control of the markets makes it impossible to predict the behavior of prices.

That theory is the most secure and profitable for long term. I don't trust the others, the crystal ball type ones. Only around 5% of traders make money long term, whereas by buying and holding index funds most people make money.

[Jet Cash]

Wikipedia seems to link him with Cambridge, but I remember him as bursar of an Oxford college. I need to do some more research I guess. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Bacon

Don't believe everything your read about America inventing everything. It was an Englishman who invented the Internet.

I posted this from memory, and it's a long time since I had associations with the stock market and Oxford. In fact, at that time the London Stock Exchange had stock jobbers as well as brokers, and you weren't allowed on the floor of the stock exchange if you were wearing brown shoes.

[cellard]

As far as studying charts going... I believe the in the self-fulfilling prophecy properties of technical analysis, and that's all. If studying charts has any use, for me that is the only valid explanation as to why it would work or why it would be work looking at. We cannot predict anything else but making odds hoping that people will follow the classic teachings and patterns seen in TA.

Of course, fundamentals are always more important than TA, a single tweet from someone powerful can change charts these days (and not only in Bitcoin, but in any other market, just look at Trump's tweets).

[Eternu]

Interesting article I must say, its useful and it provides something to think about.

After some thinking I came to a conclusion that my opinion is somewhere in between. And I believe that that approach is maybe the best. Sometime there are circumstances that could be predicted with high rate of probability, so that goes on the side of A Non-Random Walk theory thinkers. But also in many cases like it says in article, Random Walk Theory would win against opposite way of thinking. Because future is not certain, and thus can not be predicted with 100% certainty. So my opinion is that best approach would be somewhere in between.

[Jet Cash]

If you guys are interested in random walk theory, there is a lot more stuff if you read about Brownian movement. It much the same, but Brownian movement is the way they talk about particle physics.

[Eternu]

If you guys are interested in random walk theory, there is a lot more stuff if you read about Brownian movement. It much the same, but Brownian movement is the way they talk about particle physics.

Went to check out what Brownian movement is. At first I was like "What the f..." , but after reading about it, I have seen connection between Random walk theory and Brownian movement. You are right, in many ways they are similar I guess. It is interesting how some things from physics could be applied in other things, like economics in this case. But still I think that things in economics aren't that much random.

You are full of interesting things, are you Jet Cash... soon I will not know what to do with all the interesting information you provide for us.