Has Bitcoin mining ever been so unprofitable?

[philipma1957]

@ Sandal_Hat  you are pushing bear and we are not really there yet.

IF IT IS MAY 1 WITH A DIFF OF 4,000,000,000,000
AND COINS ARE AT  ----------- 6,000 USD WE WOULD BE THERE

Now the guess for players is  do we go to those numbers and btw those numbers still make the s-9 a money maker.

if you have 10 cent power coins at 6000 diff at 4,000,000,000,000

you make 44.82 per month

So till we get there I have zero worries
Once we get there if we do it will interesting to see what happens.

And even at that point The op's answer would be no it has been worse.

so we are here

coins 8300
diff    3,400,000,000,000

which is not close to

coins 6,000
diff   4,000,000,000,000

Now be negative and say it will get worse then that , it could I don't know what moves a coin or a market.
I make moves to survive that.

My moves could be terrible.

[Par Avion]

Math seems to check out, except ROI on a new miner is impossible now. New people don't realize this.

[philipma1957]

Math seems to check out, except ROI on a new miner is impossible now. New people don't realize this.

Yeah  I would think buying a s-9 right now with 10 power is not a good move.

but a s-9 for 1915 + 100 = 2015 - 200 coupon = 1815

that could make out if you have 4-6 cent power and the gear does not break.

Most buyers do not have 4-6 cent power  and s-9's break

[QuintLeo]

Which STILL is not "overcapacity", it is "demand dropping to CLOSE to capacity".
NOT the same thing.

[...]

Dude, this is the definition of overcapacity "the situation in which an industry or factory cannot sell as much as its plant is designed to produce.

They have not been able to sell what they can produce. That is why delivery-date/lead-time which was 3 months ahead is now 2 weeks. This is the same for any other industry. If they could sell as fast as they could produce, the lead time would be maintained at 3 months now.

Error - they ARE still selling every S9 miner they can produce, it's just taking them longer to do so.
They were out of stock on the S9 when I checked this morning - but seem to have had a sale payment not go through some some back in stock this afternoon.

[Sandal_Hat]

@ Sandal_Hat  you are pushing bear and we are not really there yet.

IF IT IS MAY 1 WITH A DIFF OF 4,000,000,000,000
AND COINS ARE AT  ----------- 6,000 USD WE WOULD BE THERE

[...]

I believe we are already there actually. Thats why these machines arent selling and u can buy them at huge discounts in marketplace. There are even people selling big mines with 5000 antminers in them.

Currently at 10 cents power = 145 USD per month profit
S9 with PSU = 2000 X 1.1 (VAT) + 80 shipping = 2280
2280/ 145 = 15.7 months

This is about 471 days which means ROI is a possibly never. This is already with a generous assumption of only 10% VAT, no setup cost, no staff or cooling costs. The machine only has 6 months warranty and may not last 400 over days and new machines may possibly appear to push difficulty even higher. This is why there are alot of antminers being sold in secondary marketplaces now. Well, to each his own and I guess.


(Moderator's note: This post was edited by frodocooper to trim the quote from philipma1957.)

[Sandal_Hat]

Error - they ARE still selling every S9 miner they can produce, it's just taking them longer to do so.
They were out of stock on the S9 when I checked this morning - but seem to have had a sale payment not go through some some back in stock this afternoon.

No dude, if they could do that, the delivery dates will be 3 months ahead still because they would have secured orders for all their production batches for 3 months. They havent been able to sell. That is why delivery is in 1-2 weeks now instead of 3 months. Are u selling alot of antminers now or something? I am surprised there is a need to argue over something so obvious.

Back then, ROI showed 3-4 months and people kept buying. Now it is like 15 months.


(Moderator's note: This post was edited by frodocooper to remove multiple nested quotes.)

[karnc]

If you can find S9 at 1000 usd, you might be able to ROI....  (my best guess is 10 months considering your earning decrease by only 5% a month). Above that price, better buy BTC directly. And your earning always decrease more than 5% per month.....    and this doesnt count new game changer miner out yet.

Again, buying BTC now and hodl is a much better choice than start mining at current situation (new delivered S9 13.5+psu (March batch) is being sold in my country on trade website for less than 2200 usd already). Those miners with already ROI S9 can stay profitable until price drop to 3000 region. Below 3000 usd/BTC, continue mining is just plain fun hobby. It becomes an expensive hobby. Even you have solar farm, I dont think it will worth the maintenance cost of the farm.

[The Demon Slick]

Mine and HODL. Calculate profits only when you sell. It's fine, everything will be ok. BTC 2020 here we come!

[philipma1957]

Mine and HODL. Calculate profits only when you sell. It's fine, everything will be ok. BTC 2020 here we come!

this is the way to go.






and btc is cresting up again 8800

it was 7300  the other day.

so 7300 to 8800 in  2 days  a factor of 1.2



means  in 2 more days   March 22

8800 x 1.2 = 10560

2  more days                 March 24

10560 x 1.2 = 12672

2 more days                   March 26

12672 x 1.2 = 15206

2 more days                 March  28

15206 x 1.2 = 18247

2 more days                  March 30

18247 x 1.2 = 21896     all time high!!

2 more days  

21,896 x 1.2 =  26275   On April Fools day!    




So as you see that is silly stupid optimistic


just like the negative stuff on this thread  projecting doom and gloom  are silly stupid pessimistic.

It is very likely  cryptocoins move on  as they have been doing with ups and downs.

 Hopefully we will move upwards  starting today.  In a sane manner and go  past 10k  in april.

[Par Avion]

The best way to calculate for me, seems to be to take btc invested to purchase equipment and use that to find your ROI based on total btc. Many miners use btc to buy their equipment so its fairly simple to go back and look at btc bought vs. earned. If you spent .5 btc on equip, when will you reach that to ROI? Its a bit more easy and fair imo, than to use pricing as that fluctuates so much and a hundred dollars last year is a tenth of what it is this year.

[ccgllc]

I'm still fond of the thought that the current lows are due to last year's "Bitcoin Millionaires" in the USA discovering they owe a boat load of taxes that they didn't put money away for.  As such, they are panic selling their remaining bitcoins to pay those taxes.

Time will tell.  Filing date is 4/16/18.  Lets see what it is shortly thereafter.

That said, governments out to suppress Bitcoin as a threat to their fiat currency, despite the recent G20 statements, can have a field day with this news:  https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/mar/20/child-abuse-imagery-bitcoin-blockchain-illegal-content

[ccgllc]

The best way to calculate for me, seems to be to take btc invested to purchase equipment and use that to find your ROI based on total btc. Many miners use btc to buy their equipment so its fairly simple to go back and look at btc bought vs. earned. If you spent .5 btc on equip, when will you reach that to ROI? Its a bit more easy and fair imo, than to use pricing as that fluctuates so much and a hundred dollars last year is a tenth of what it is this year.

I've mine Bitcoin as my primary source of income, transitioning from a hobby to a job back in November.  The post above is accurate.  However my method just considers all previously spent BTC on equipment as a sunk cost.  e.g.  I can't undo it, its history.  My "Happy Factor" is now simply making enough money per month (as displayed by Awesome Miner under the Coins tab - where electrical cost are subtracted for me) to live on.  My "Really Happy Factor" is when I can put a bit of cash away for rainy days and a bit of bitcoin away for replacement equipment.  December was a "Stupid Drunk Happy" month <smile>.

[philipma1957]

We are now at 9050 per coin  mining is a lot more profitable then it was 2 days ago.




(Moderator's note: This post was edited by frodocooper to remove an unnecessary quote.)