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东亚太平洋地区发展中国家经济增速将达6.3%
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Topic: 东亚太平洋地区发展中国家经济增速将达6.3% (Read 83 times)
Mack1988
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东亚太平洋地区发展中国家经济增速将达6.3%
April 15, 2018, 10:34:21 AM
#1
记者高伟东报道:世界银行近日发布的最新一期《东亚太平洋地区经济半年报:提升潜能》指出,2018年东亚太平洋地区发展中国家经济增长预计将保持强劲,增速可达6.3%,持续且基础广泛的全球复苏前景和旺盛的内需支撑着这一乐观前景。但是,对稳定与持续增长所面临的新风险须加以密切关注。
报告强调,尽管前景看好,但东亚地区的政策制定者应当认识到并着手应对新出现的挑战。防范发达经济体加息快于预期和贸易紧张局势可能升级带来的短期风险,需要收紧货币政策和加大财政缓冲。为了提升更长期的增长率,促进公共和私人投资、提高生产率和加强人力资本建设是关键。
世界银行东亚太平洋地区副行长维多利亚·克瓦说:“强劲增长使得东亚地区在减少极端贫困方面取得巨大成就。但要想在这一基础上再接再厉,改善很大一部分仍缺少经济安全人口的现状,还需要更长期的持续增长。政策制定者需要专注于防范威胁经济稳定的风险,同时采取措施提升更长期的增长潜能。”
中国在2017年增速超过预期之后,随着经济增长动能继续从投资向国内消费转型,政策更加关注放慢信贷扩张速度和提高增长质量,预计2018年增速将温和放缓至6.5%。除中国外,东亚其他发展中国家2018年增速预计将继续稳定在5.4%。由于投资和私人消费前景改善,印度尼西亚和泰国2018年增速预计会加快。菲律宾2018年增速预计会保持稳定。马来西亚和越南增速预计会放缓,原因是前者的公共投资增速放缓,后者的农业生产在2017年回弹后趋于平稳。
报告说,本地区较小型经济体的增长前景普遍看好,原因是大宗商品价格回升。缅甸2018年经济增速预计会上升,但投资前景有可能随着若开邦的事态发展出现恶化。蒙古增速能否加快也取决于持续的宏观经济稳定。随着大宗商品价格上涨,巴布亚新几内亚可能会出现周期性复苏,但最近的地震可能会影响增长前景。柬埔寨增长预计会小幅加快,老挝有望稳定增长。太平洋岛屿国家的增长前景喜忧参半。斐济和所罗门群岛预计会出现增长放缓。由于易受自然灾害影响和对大宗商品进口的依赖,较小太平洋岛屿国家预计会温和增长但有波动。
世界银行东亚太平洋地区首席经济学家苏迪尔·谢蒂说:“虽然东亚地区增长前景乐观,但对于政策制定者来说存在短期和中期挑战。应对这些挑战需要采取措施减少发达经济体加快收紧货币政策可能带来的影响,并在面临政策不确定性特别是国际贸易政策不确定性的情况下,加强更长期的增长前景。”
报告建议,为了化解宏观经济稳定所面临的风险,各国需要考虑收紧货币政策,进一步加强宏观审慎监管。对于那些债务水平高或信贷增长快,在发达经济体加息情况下有可能加剧其金融部门脆弱性的国家,这一点尤其重要。
为了应对整个地区中期增长放缓的前景,各国需要寻找提升长期增长潜能的途径。这可以包括一个政策组合,包括改善公共支出和基础设施提供;深化贸易一体化和改善贸易便利化;实施有利于提高竞争力的改革;人力资本建设等。
鉴于全球贸易体系持续面临威胁,东亚发展中国家可以通过东盟经济共同体、跨太平洋伙伴全面进展协定、“一带一路”倡议等机制,深化自身的贸易一体化和便利化。
young Xxc
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Re: 东亚太平洋地区发展中国家经济增速将达6.3%
April 17, 2018, 04:54:24 AM
#2
东亚也有起色了。那么东南亚呢。。为何这么落后。。
qianqi
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Re: 东亚太平洋地区发展中国家经济增速将达6.3%
April 18, 2018, 06:17:03 AM
#3
现在不管现有国家哪一个经济体系。已经在经济危机边缘了。
wangli370404
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Re: 东亚太平洋地区发展中国家经济增速将达6.3%
April 18, 2018, 08:10:49 AM
#4
不懂,
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