Sentiment in 2011

[Rampion]

If the price doesn't regain and maintain triple digits, I would see the bear market as confirmed.

The bear is on since the April crash, which was deeper and faster than the one we had in 2011.

I don't see it like this.
For a looooong time the outcome of this crash was uncertain.
It looked like the mother of all consolidation triangle.

Unless I'm mistaken, even Blitz was kinda confused.  

Yes, we were all confused. I said "the bear is on" just after the crash, and I got some arguing with long time members (I remember organofcorti, who I respect much, asked me: "do you have any empyrical proof or are you just bullshitting?", or something like that). I based that conclusion just on common sense, I was sure we had a major speculative bubble (who didn't see that?), and logical thing was bubble deflation.

Then, the sucker rally to $166 started, and it really confused us all. We were uncertain between the "bubble deflation" case, and the "correction" case. Did you remember that? We had all this "higher lows" trend which was a very different pattern compared to 2011. We were pretty much all uncertain, apart from Lucif, Bright Anarchist and Evolve. The first two never had a single doubt about we were in a roaring bear market, while the last one had some light doubts, while still consistently defending the most likely outcome was a bubble deflation.

For me the tipping point was the ridiculously low volume rally to $130 the last week of May. There I sold most of my coins (at $129ish if I remember it correctly), and I realized the "correction" case was less and less likely, and that gambling on it was definitely -EV.

Fun and profitable ride nevertheless, with respected fellow travelers in this journey, like yourself, IAS, Blitz, Adam, Oda.Krell, Evolve, etc. etc. etc.

[oda.krell]

If the price doesn't regain and maintain triple digits, I would see the bear market as confirmed.

The bear is on since the April crash, which was deeper and faster than the one we had in 2011.

I don't see it like this.
For a looooong time the outcome of this crash was uncertain.
It looked like the mother of all consolidation triangle.

Unless I'm mistaken, even Blitz was kinda confused.  ;)

I completely agree. I don't really care who had the right intuition before anyone else. I care about how they arrived at their conclusion, so I can decide if their methodology is worth a damn or not. There are relatively few early bears that I took serious in that respect, slipperyslope and Rampion are among them (Blitz would be among them as well, if he wouldn't have a bit of a prosectilizing tendency about it occasionally :D).

Anyway, I was (and to a degree, still am) undecided how this will play out exactly, but there were several breaking points at which my sentiment changed.

(a) when we broke throught the last of the (increasingly lower) exponential growth trends that started in 2013

(b) when we broke the daily SMA100 (not that I see a deep meaning in that indicator, but I know people rely on it, so it matters after all)

(c) and finally, and that's the biggest one, when the "higher lows" series broke a few days ago.

I still trade exclusively on a short-to-medium-term basis, from day to day, week to week at most, and I'm mostly agnostic about how far we are into the correction/deflation, but I do somewhat adjust over time my expectation of the absolute bottom. And after each of the events above, that value went down.

[Comodore]

Bitcoins are hotter than ever. I don't think what happened in 2011 can really apply to what's going on now.

This time it's different. 

That argument is very much known for its idocy inside. Not the man but the argument

[rampantparanoia]

based on OP timeline, we should hit bottom in september.

[SkRRJyTC]

based on OP timeline, we should hit bottom in september.

There is no time, only price.

[Maged]

based on OP timeline, we should hit bottom in september.

We're moving much slower than last time. I've predicted in the past that this deflation from the bubble would last about 1 year from the pop, based on our slow progress. I might be willing to revise that to 8 months, but that's as far as I'd be willing to go right now.

We've got a long road ahead of us...

[N12]

Thanks Maged, always good to hear your opinion.

I'm not sure how long it will take, but generally I don't think we are going to reverse before around Halloween. Either way, before we make a bottom <50 on high volume (capitulation), we're not done yet in my view.

We're tracing out yet another bull trap right now to clear off the negative sentiment that has built, and then we're ripe to go down and challenge 50 imo.

[Maged]

Thanks Maged, always good to hear your opinion.

You're welcome 

I'm not sure how long it will take, but generally I don't think we are going to reverse before around Halloween. Either way, before we make a bottom <50 on high volume (capitulation), we're not done yet in my view.

Agreed. Any heavy volume has always been on my short list of things that would invalidate my earlier prediction. Until then, I constantly have to force myself not to look too much at charts in order to avoid accidentally re-evaluating my prediction using emotion. That is why, although I did doubt myself earlier, I never actually changed my trading strategy.

We're tracing out yet another bull trap right now to clear off the negative sentiment that has built, and then we're ripe to go down and challenge 50 imo.

Agreed. Remember, in Bitcoin there is almost always a bounce when you hit areas of support/resistance.

[Rampion]

Thanks Maged, always good to hear your opinion.

You're welcome  

I'm not sure how long it will take, but generally I don't think we are going to reverse before around Halloween. Either way, before we make a bottom <50 on high volume (capitulation), we're not done yet in my view.

Agreed. Any heavy volume has always been on my short list of things that would invalidate my earlier prediction. Until then, I constantly have to force myself not to look too much at charts in order to avoid accidentally re-evaluating my prediction using emotion. That is why, although I did doubt myself earlier, I never actually changed my trading strategy.

We're tracing out yet another bull trap right now to clear off the negative sentiment that has built, and then we're ripe to go down and challenge 50 imo.

Agreed. Remember, in Bitcoin there is almost always a bounce when you hit areas of support/resistance.

True, but we went through what were supposed to be "crucial" support points ($88 and $79) very easily and very quickly.

This makes me expect at least 1/2 quite big and long bounces before the bottom, with moments where things slow down for as much as a couple of weeks. This need to cool off and sentiment to build.

This last bounce at $66 looks uncertain, I think it will be interesting to see if the price goes again above the 200 day EMA (which is at $80ish) with decent volume, that could trigger an epic trap.

[adpinbr]

Thanks Maged, always good to hear your opinion.

You're welcome  

I'm not sure how long it will take, but generally I don't think we are going to reverse before around Halloween. Either way, before we make a bottom <50 on high volume (capitulation), we're not done yet in my view.

Agreed. Any heavy volume has always been on my short list of things that would invalidate my earlier prediction. Until then, I constantly have to force myself not to look too much at charts in order to avoid accidentally re-evaluating my prediction using emotion. That is why, although I did doubt myself earlier, I never actually changed my trading strategy.

We're tracing out yet another bull trap right now to clear off the negative sentiment that has built, and then we're ripe to go down and challenge 50 imo.

Agreed. Remember, in Bitcoin there is almost always a bounce when you hit areas of support/resistance.

True, but we went through what were supposed to be "crucial" support points ($88 and $79) very easily and very quickly.

This makes me expect at least 1/2 quite big and long bounces before the bottom, with moments where things slow down for as much as a couple of weeks. This need to cool off and sentiment to build.

This last bounce at $66 looks uncertain, I think it will be interesting to see if the price goes again above the 200 day EMA (which is at $80ish) with decent volume, that could trigger an epic trap.

Whats your ETA on bottoming out? at what price?
When do you think we will surpass the 266 high?

My guess is bottom in 5 months at around 30 and all time high in a year and a half

[Rampion]

Thanks Maged, always good to hear your opinion.

You're welcome  

I'm not sure how long it will take, but generally I don't think we are going to reverse before around Halloween. Either way, before we make a bottom <50 on high volume (capitulation), we're not done yet in my view.

Agreed. Any heavy volume has always been on my short list of things that would invalidate my earlier prediction. Until then, I constantly have to force myself not to look too much at charts in order to avoid accidentally re-evaluating my prediction using emotion. That is why, although I did doubt myself earlier, I never actually changed my trading strategy.

We're tracing out yet another bull trap right now to clear off the negative sentiment that has built, and then we're ripe to go down and challenge 50 imo.

Agreed. Remember, in Bitcoin there is almost always a bounce when you hit areas of support/resistance.

True, but we went through what were supposed to be "crucial" support points ($88 and $79) very easily and very quickly.

This makes me expect at least 1/2 quite big and long bounces before the bottom, with moments where things slow down for as much as a couple of weeks. This need to cool off and sentiment to build.

This last bounce at $66 looks uncertain, I think it will be interesting to see if the price goes again above the 200 day EMA (which is at $80ish) with decent volume, that could trigger an epic trap.

Whats your ETA on bottoming out? at what price?
When do you think we will surpass the 266 high?

My guess is bottom in 5 months at around 30 and all time high in a year and a half

Considering that the initial crash was very deep and fast, while the following deflation is being slower, I'd also bet for a slow deflation.

I like to think the bottom will be on September/October, but I don't discard at all a slower decline that lasts more. Also because from September to December we will see a huge increase in hashrate, ROI will be very difficult for miners, and a negative cycle can be triggered if prices are down, so the miners rush to sell to recoup their investments before the price goes down further, which obviously brings the price down, wash rinse and repeat...

Many people do not realize that the game changed with ASICs, the majority of hash rate won't be in the hands of tens of k's of amateurs miners like when mining was done with CPUs or GPUs, now the hashrate will be concentrated among few biggish "mining startups" that will function as a business as they have to pay for significant fiat costs - those businesses cannot mine at a loss while hoarding the coins hoping for the price to go up, so I expect some continuous selling throughout the year.

About ATH: breaking it in one year and a half seems too optimist to me. I won't be surprised if the next bubble doesn't happen for 2/3 more years. Next halving could be a nice point for it, it's the kind of "tipping point" where the miners get nervous and start hoarding in the fear they won't be able to cover costs of their operations, which is something that effectively cripples supply and triggers a coin shortage in the market.

We will see...

[N12]

We'll be needing this again.

[freedomno1]

We'll be needing this again.

Of course looking back I should have said November and supportive bump

[pera]

wow I didn't see this thread: great work OP!

[coraz]

About ATH: breaking it in one year and a half seems too optimist to me. I won't be surprised if the next bubble doesn't happen for 2/3 more years.

...and the ATH was broken in less than 4 months 


Anyway, what is clear from this thread is how hopelessly wrong people are when trying to time the market (not talking about you specifically Rampion). It doesn't matter if you lived through 2011 and April 2013 bubbles and you think you know the markets inside out. You might get lucky and catch a falling knife (or call the top) successfully, but that's just gambling.

[Rampion]

About ATH: breaking it in one year and a half seems too optimist to me. I won't be surprised if the next bubble doesn't happen for 2/3 more years.

...and the ATH was broken in less than 4 months 


Anyway, what is clear from this thread is how hopelessly wrong people are when trying to time the market (not talking about you specifically Rampion). It doesn't matter if you lived through 2011 and April 2013 bubbles and you think you know the markets inside out. You might get lucky and catch a falling knife (or call the top) successfully, but that's just gambling.

That was quite a fail indeed

I do think that 2011 won't happen again. Things changed, people knows BTC is here to stay for good while in 2011 Bitcoin could have very well disappeared. The sentiment and the level of awareness are completely different than in 2013.