The boat is long gone

[Tirapon]

The whole premise of this thread is moronic.

OF COURSE you've "missed" the boat if you didn't get in at $0.1 or whatever. For whatever gains we get from here, the early birds will get the same gains PLUS what they have already, so they will always be ahead of you. Unless we fall all the way back to <$1 then it's impossible not to have "missed" that boat.

Who cares? I believe bitcoin is still a good investment. There's risk of loss, but also risk of significant gains from here. It's not a sure thing, but it wasn't back then either.

(Will forever be kicking myself for not buying more in July at $60)

This thread is not moronic. Why doesnt anyone listen? There IS money to be made PERIOD! What I am saying is that is where there is easy money to be made you get more and more people fighting over every damn dollar. Ever see a great invention or idea get replicated by fifty different companies? They total saturate the marketplace fighting the others for the same dollar right? Who wins in the end? The biggest player or the one with the most money or best lawyers etc. Same thing for bitcoins you have people who have more money, resources, information etc and have a better chance to make money than your computer geek buying his coins with his allowance. You are chasing the same dollar as the rich people. Bottom line People with more money have an advantage. The winklevoss twins have money right. and seeing they had money they could have directly bought their coins right from mt gox at a discount, not at the price you and I could buy it for but THEIR price because they have the money. So what I am saying is that unless you were in from the beginnings and have held throughout all the ups and downs YOU MADE THE BOAT! People buying at $50, 60 $100 etc are chasing the boat because you are vying for the same dollar that the rich people are trying to get.

Okay, what you're saying makes sense. From the perspective of someone who sees Bitcoin as a way to extract dollars from users, this would be the sentiment you'd expect. However, the thing about Bitcoin is that it actually functions as a currency in and of itself.

In my opinion, the best thing about the Silk Road (putting aside your political/moral views on their business) was that it demonstrated just how well Bitcoin functions as a means of exchange - 1.2 Billion dollars worth of sales over the course of two years!

So, when you stop seeing the system as some sort of pyramid scheme designed to part users with their money (and admittedly, at first glance it may well resemble one), and start to see its potential as a replacement for that money, you realise that your perspective shifts. Will Bitcoin make it all the way? Well, the current price is a reflection of overall sentiment as to the probability of that happening.


EDIT: Not 1.2 Billion dollars worth of sales, dammit I've been brainwashed by lazy news reporting. The real volume of sales would be much lower, adjusted for the varying exchange rate for BTC/USD. But still, the figure would have been in the tens or hundreds of millions, so the point remains.

[sgbett]

dude I like you. I can tell you are legit. you are a very smart investor and I like your honesty. thank you for sharing your story.

aw shucks thx

To be fair. Agree with your point that the crazy money might not be there. Hindsight is a sonofabitch. I could easily be sat on 1000+ BTC right now if my balls had been bigger

The most relevant discussion point (imho) is how many people actually know about BTC. I think maybe lots know(say 10%?), but only a small (maybe 10%?) percentage of those that know have done anything about it. (Assuming we are talking about developed countries here which is about 1bn people). So maybe 1% ? Which I think is still a fairly goo place to be in terms of early adoptership?

I rekcon there is plenty of scope for *many* more people to find out, and for *many many* more to take action. All of which pumps adoption, which has to have upward pressure on price.

To me the only big risk left is supercession. To hedge against that I got a few bits and pieces in other alt coins, and I continue to skim a small percentage off the top for every big leg up in BTC/USD price. I'm just trying to pay myself enough to take the sting away if it all goes to zero, from whatever pricee it was at. I can tell you I have spent many hours playing with spreadsheets and charts trying to settle on what strategy to take. One things for sure, your strategy should definitely not be to take it as it comes. I have my sell orders planned right up to $1m per BTC. Maybe I'll tweak them over time. The key thing is to try to make sure you never sell because you 'think' anything

To everyone not on BTC the big risk to them is that it goes supernova. I loved Talebs work on black swans and antifragilty. To that end I think anyone that hasn't insured themselves against the possibility of a BTC supernova, is effectively exposing them to the huge risk that they could wake up one day and find their world turned upside down.

I would say be sure about what one can lose, but make sure one always leaves open the chance of unlimited gains.

[fleabag]

The whole premise of this thread is moronic.

OF COURSE you've "missed" the boat if you didn't get in at $0.1 or whatever. For whatever gains we get from here, the early birds will get the same gains PLUS what they have already, so they will always be ahead of you. Unless we fall all the way back to <$1 then it's impossible not to have "missed" that boat.

Who cares? I believe bitcoin is still a good investment. There's risk of loss, but also risk of significant gains from here. It's not a sure thing, but it wasn't back then either.

(Will forever be kicking myself for not buying more in July at $60)

This thread is not moronic. Why doesnt anyone listen? There IS money to be made PERIOD! What I am saying is that is where there is easy money to be made you get more and more people fighting over every damn dollar. Ever see a great invention or idea get replicated by fifty different companies? They total saturate the marketplace fighting the others for the same dollar right? Who wins in the end? The biggest player or the one with the most money or best lawyers etc. Same thing for bitcoins you have people who have more money, resources, information etc and have a better chance to make money than your computer geek buying his coins with his allowance. You are chasing the same dollar as the rich people. Bottom line People with more money have an advantage. The winklevoss twins have money right. and seeing they had money they could have directly bought their coins right from mt gox at a discount, not at the price you and I could buy it for but THEIR price because they have the money. So what I am saying is that unless you were in from the beginnings and have held throughout all the ups and downs YOU MADE THE BOAT! People buying at $50, 60 $100 etc are chasing the boat because you are vying for the same dollar that the rich people are trying to get.

Okay, what you're saying makes sense. From the perspective of someone who sees Bitcoin as a way to extract dollars from users, this would be the sentiment you'd expect. However, the thing about Bitcoin is that it actually functions as a currency in and of itself.

In my opinion, the best thing about the Silk Road (putting aside your political/moral views on their business) was that it demonstrated just how well Bitcoin functions as a means of exchange - 1.2 Billion dollars worth of sales over the course of two years!

So, when you stop seeing the system as some sort of pyramid scheme designed to part users with their money (and admittedly, at first glance it may well resemble one), and start to see its potential as a replacement for that money, you realise that your perspective shifts. Will Bitcoin make it all the way? Well, the current price is a reflection of overall sentiment as to the probability of that happening.


EDIT: Not 1.2 Billion dollars worth of sales, dammit I've been brainwashed by lazy news reporting. The real volume of sales would be much lower, adjusted for the varying exchange rate for BTC/USD. But still, the figure would have been in the tens or hundreds of millions, so the point remains.

Good point. I want to see it work but somehow some way the capitalist pigs always  f the hard working folks in the end.

[balanghai]

Buy some Litecoin at a nice price of $1.67 a coin  

Only 84 Million coins for the globe 

This is also a good idea.

[byronbb]

[piramida]

Sure the boat is long gone, but if the author of that post had any balls he could've increased his saving 5x in a month! But no, that's not a good enough opportunity, right?

How is that total ignorance is any different from early adopters? So here's the main answer to this thread - does not matter when you get into bitcoin. It matters if you do. In 2011, you could've either bought "overpriced bitcoins" at $1 each, or go on the forum bitching about how the boat to riches is long gone and now you can't buy bitcoins for cents anymore, because "no fucking way it ever goes to $10". Substitute BTC for mBTC and you have the today's situation.

I.e., losers would stay losers in any situation, and the rest finds a boat to sail of which there are plenty.

[kireinaha]

Okay, let`s call it. This time the boat really is gone.

[Tirapon]

Okay, let`s call it. This time the boat really is gone.

LOL, I'm gonna come bump this next year (If I remember to)

[haploid23]

This feabag guy can just crawl back to his cave now. Nothing more for him to say.

The boat was missed when he said BTC was still $200, now it's nearly $1k...

[bitleif]

Many boats have gone. New boats go every hour.

Each boat pays less than the previous one, but who cares.

[zeroday]

In November 2014 everybody will cry a boat was missed at $10000

[MoreFun]

In November 2014 everybody will cry a boat was missed at $10000

You mean at $10 mBTC?

[zeroday]

In November 2014 everybody will cry a boat was missed at $10000

You mean at $10 mBTC?

$10K/btc

[zachcope]

To those who cry the boat has gone, consider the decisions the earlier buyers of bitcoin have to make.
If someone bought 10 coins for $1 and now has $10,000 usd worth of coins, and you have $10,000 usd of fiat then, not including friction in money transfers, both parties have equal decisions to make re converting to bitcoin.

The old hand with $10k of coins is making a decision not to convert back to $$ at that level if they hold. That confirms their ongoing bullishness/faith/strong hand. If someone who 'missed the boat' has $10k they could use to buy bitcoins at this level they cannot whinge about the person with 10btc who stays in bitcoin.

Both parties have the opportunity to profit from the future purchasing power of bitcoin, or they could cash out or stay in dirty fiat money.

So the jealousy is for the run up to $1k/coins but if the fiat holder misses out of future gains they have no one but themselves to blame.

It will be a challenge for old hands (pre april 2013 in this parabolic market) to stay strong, but if they do and profit they have made the same risks as those with fiat to invest at this point in time onwards.

Strong hands will be tested in the next few months and years...
 stay cool bitcoiners  BTC

[piramida]

To those who cry the boat has gone, consider the decisions the earlier buyers of bitcoin have to make.
If someone bought 10 coins for $1 and now has $10,000 usd worth of coins, and you have $10,000 usd of fiat then, not including friction in money transfers, both parties have equal decisions to make re converting to bitcoin.

The old hand with $10k of coins is making a decision not to convert back to $$ at that level if they hold. That confirms their ongoing bullishness/faith/strong hand. If someone who 'missed the boat' has $10k they could use to buy bitcoins at this level they cannot whinge about the person with 10btc who stays in bitcoin.

Both parties have the opportunity to profit from the future purchasing power of bitcoin, or they could cash out or stay in dirty fiat money.

So the jealousy is for the run up to $1k/coins but if the fiat holder misses out of future gains they have no one but themselves to blame.

It will be a challenge for old hands (pre april 2013 in this parabolic market) to stay strong, but if they do and profit they have made the same risks as those with fiat to invest at this point in time onwards.

Strong hands will be tested in the next few months and years...
 stay cool bitcoiners  BTC

That is one very smart post, thank you. It never occured to me that in fact both whiners and holders are in exact same position, only the holders were making the decision to NOT SELL for several years while whiners started crying at the very first chance to buy they got

[thddx]

While difficult, one must avoid the temptation to think in terms of "what could have been".  Even at $1k, there is still a huge amount of money to be made.  People seem to work themselves into a decision coma by staring at the price and it turns into a spiral of regret. 

If you buy now, you are very likely to profit.  The boat has hardly left port. 

[I_bitcoin]

While difficult, one must avoid the temptation to think in terms of "what could have been".  Even at $1k, there is still a huge amount of money to be made.  People seem to work themselves into a decision coma by staring at the price and it turns into a spiral of regret. 

If you buy now, you are very likely to profit.  The boat has hardly left port. 

This...

Most folks, including me, have no idea of the scale that things can get to.   I am not a pie in the sky person but can tell you that we did not think the Internet was going to be a big deal either.   I put this one notch below Internet scale event and several notches above what happened to the MP3/Book/Movie industries.  This protocol is going to completely refactor the way we think about, and accomplish, global finance.   

[Luckybit]

So lets say that people are just getting into Bitcoin now and are buying 5BTC for $1000.  You say that is not worth it?  Their $1000 investment could easily increase up to $10,000 or even more in the next 4 or 5 years.  Tell me of any stock that has ever had that great of returns!?

It is just a matter of time before people with large amounts of money realize the potential here and jump in to take advantage. 

Sure the early miners scored big time. They took a risk and are already reaping rewards today.  At that time it seemed like a long-shot though.  I think we have even more proof NOW than the miners did back then that Bitcoin is going to work.  So the risk is even less!  There is regulation in place.  There are more stable exchanges to buy and sell.  There are large companies adopting Bitcoin.  There are funds being put into place that will channel hundreds of thousands of dollars into Bitcoin. 

NOW is a fantastic time to buy and $200 per BTC is still super cheap!

You were right. In a month $2000 will be the new cheap. $10,000 will be reached in 2014 and it might go to $50,000.

[GriTBitS]

Go big or go home! Winners go home and F#ck the prom queen at night!  You don't win by sitting in the stands!!!

[ASanerWorld]

Interesting discussion. While I can appreciate OP's point that the largest and easiest gains ultimately will go to those who bought in early, this market is still volatile enough for smart investors to play the market very successfully even with very small amounts invested. Case in point, a week ago, I moved .2 btc to an exchange and spent some time trading and swept all earnings back into btc and transferred the gain back to my cold storage. Net gain over the week has been about 9%. Not too shabby for a week of play for a newbie in the market. OP and others may have missed the big boat but there are still plenty of little ones waiting at the dock.