Here is a simple formula to use.
How many BTC will you have if you buy Bitcoins today with the same amount of money?
How many Bitcoins can you earn with the miner?
If equal buy Bitcoins .
If fewer by mining buy Bitcoins .
If more with mining and you are confident in the values you used when estimating, then consider buying the mining equipment.
For more check out my blog:
http://bitcoinsbs.wordpress.com/2013/12/13/do-i-mine-or-not/