What're the odds of a freak statistical alignment causing longlasting netsplits?

[TiagoTiago]

What are the odds that the Bitcoin network will suffer a freak alignment of connections where big cluster of nodes will clump up remaining separated from each other for prolonged periods before eventually dissolving back into a more homogeneous foam?

[genjix]

quite likely. probably happened a few times too.

[Local]

quite likely. probably happened a few times too.

I disconnect all the time. It's not really a problem.

[TiagoTiago]

I'm talking about the emergence of netsplits stable for a prolonged period of time, when the the homogeneous foam starts developing coalescing clumps that remain separated from each other for a while.

[genjix]

You're talking about allopatric genetic drift (see left column),


The longest chain of the two after being merged becomes the main one.

[TiagoTiago]

Interesting info with the infograph there, thanx.


But what are the odds of a situation like that happening on the Bitcoin network?

[theymos]

It's pretty unlikely to happen for long enough to become severe. Every peer in one segment must lose their connection to the other segment. Even if one ISP gets cut off from the Internet, it's likely that at least one person on the cut-off ISP is multihomed, and they will relay transactions and blocks between the networks.

Bitcoin makes outgoing connections to 8 random peers in different /16 networks, so I doubt the network would "drift apart" by itself. Especially when everyone is connected to IRC.