ASIC MINERS -- WHICH HORSE TO BET ON?

[Miner2049r]

@ todays exchange & difficulty rates:


AlphaTechnology Viper (5Mh/s)     priced at US$ 2500 yields < US$ 13500
AlphaTechnology Viper (25Mh/s)   priced at US$ 9000 yields < US$ 60000

SluiceBit II                  (2Mh/s)     priced at US$ 2500 yields < US$  5100
SluiceBit IV                 (4Mh/s)     priced at US$ 4500 yields < US$  10300

Crypto Industries Osiris (5Mh/s)   priced at US$  ? yields < US$ 13500
Crypto Industries Horus (10Mh/s) priced at US$  ? yields < US$ 26000

 SluiceBit units are clearly out of the running
 Cryto Industries have not published an MSRP
 AlphaTechnology have posted public design studies and demonstration video  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69P2RHG2pIA

I didn't mean for this post to be a shill for the Viper but that's how it shook out at todays rates and news.

The only way I could see SB and CI staying in is if they priced their units to be linearly incremental against AT which has no bearing at all on their production costs.

[mikeybit]

AT posted a video of a FPGA.  Still quite a ways off from making a functional ASIC.  I would be incredibly shocked if they actually ship before q4 14.

[kramble]

I'm going to say none of the above.

There is far too much risk in Scrypt ASIC development. One or more of the runners may fall at any of the many hurdles, and even if they reach the winning post in perhaps 6 to 12 months time, its likely to be a Pyrrihc Victory as GPU developments, price movements or even POW algorithm changes could scupper the entire endeavour.

Compare what happened with bitcoin sha256 ASIC development, and consider that scrypt is more complex, will cost far more to develop (which must all be funded up-front) and may give little or no advantage over the GPU competition.

I'm Out.