Euclid's Theory

[MaximilianCohen]

Bitcoin price is a function of deflating circulation and a normal (or poisson) probability-distributed adoption curve. Each bubble's price ceiling and floor is determined by available pool of current, new, and old adopters, and their relative (stochastic) movements, meaning as time goes on, the relative price ceiling of each bubble will drop, and the relative price floor will drop as well.

https://twitter.com/EuclidPredicts/status/418267818660884480/photo/1

What say you?

[milesy]

see no correlation.

[MaximilianCohen]

see no correlation.

Do you realize that even a heavily correlated (R^2 > 99.5) line would have no predictive power on the coin, right? And even then, it would predict endless exponential growth, which is silly. I explained how the line was drawn, do you think the method is wrong?

[Phrenico]

How does the author know what fraction of the population has adopted? How does he know the total number of people who will adopt BTC..whether businesses will hold their balances in BTC? What value is he using for the velocity of BTC, or whether it will be fractionally reserved or not?

Specific to this prediction, why should scams influence the final market cap of BTC? They can discourage adoption, sure, but then why do both cumulative normals level off to an equilibrium?

[kdrop22]

Can you explain how this is different from the S-Curve adoption model.