The correction and recovery in a nutshell.

[qbits]

Interesting, as I always suspected that people who need to quote the almighty Wikipedia rather than being able to rely on their own brains come across as idiots! 

Get yourself a sexcoin. You'll feel better

[Impaler]

You know, somehow I can tolerate Mat's doom & gloom brand of bearism... at least he has some skin in the game in a way most bears rarely do, he's actively shorting. I appreciate the drama around that, if not his analysis.

But you, Impaler...

your incredulity is surprising.  I am indeed not a miner, I am an observer of miners and a student of macro-economics which puts me in a better position to predict the overall trends then an individual miner who thinks micro-economically.  First you confuse 'declining profitability' with 'unprofitable', as you said the unprofitable miner ceases to mine and the miners as a whole stay profitable but JUST BARELY.  And just barely profitable miners still have costs that need to be paid, so the percentage of your daily take that can be hoarded declines.  It is as simple as that.

You just sound like a pompous prick when you put on that bear suit.

I remember the last discussion we had about this topic.  August 7th, in one of chodpaba's threads. Price had dipped slightly below 100 again these days (on bitstamp), and based on the same "I have a deep insight into the psychology of miners" bullshit argument, you predicted, what?, going back to 50? Something like that. You recommended fucking shorting, in fact, a few days before a trend that took us from ~100 to ~1200.

I'm sure you will forgive me if I'm not exactly reading your analysis based on miners' sales/hoarding strategies with the utmost reverence.

I indeed don't have any skin in the game, as I rejected the whole BTC paradigm as unsustainable the moment I read how it worked, and I consider taking money from suckers in the process of a bubble market to be morally repugnant so I don't touch BTC, I post here purely for Socratic reasons.  A Bear is generally someone like Mat who is IN the market but expects it to go down so he can profit in the future, and I'm NOT nor will I ever be in the market so I'm not being a 'Bear' when I comment here, I'm more of a Gadfly.  If Bears find what I say useful then so be it.  I would fully expect BTC fanatics to me even more hostile towards me then they are to a true bear, your reaction is just another data-point to me and one that confirms my earlier post.

As for my predictions in chodpaba's thread, it was a perfectly reasonable prediction at the time, a bear market had been in place for months already and the similarities to the 2011 bear market were obvious to everyone.  The prediction clearly failed for two simple reason.

The freezing more or less of USD withdraws from Mt.Gox, this fundamentally broke the exit route out of BTC and halted the market decline.  Then a few months later the entrance of China into the market and a second 'hype-cycle' that started before the full capitulation of the bear market.  As I said the price of BTC reflects the ability of buyers to buy up coins and adding a HUGE ravenous population of speculators able and willing to do just that will logically drive the market.

[Ibian]

Socratic reasons. You are not a fucking philosopher or some kind of higher thinker. You are a pompous alt-pumper.

[piramida]

Socratic reasons. You are not a fucking philosopher or some kind of higher thinker. You are a pompous alt-pumper.

Your analysis is correct, although I'd shorten that to "idiot" Someone who desperately tries to appear knowledgeable, to cover for an actual intellectual emptiness. Will grow into a good investment banking assistant, saying many words with no meaning.

[qbits]

Socratic reasons. You are not a fucking philosopher or some kind of higher thinker. You are a pompous alt-pumper.

Your analysis is correct, although I'd shorten that to "idiot" Someone who desperately tries to appear knowledgeable, to cover for an actual intellectual emptiness. Will grow into a good investment banking assistant, saying many words with no meaning.

Guys, proper form is to attack the argument not the person that delivers it. Nobody wants to see this thread degenerate into name calling contest right?

Other than that I would like to hear your counter argument. What do you think will happen to the bitcoin price?

Disclosure: I own and mine both BTC and LTC.

[Ibian]

Socratic reasons. You are not a fucking philosopher or some kind of higher thinker. You are a pompous alt-pumper.

Your analysis is correct, although I'd shorten that to "idiot" Someone who desperately tries to appear knowledgeable, to cover for an actual intellectual emptiness. Will grow into a good investment banking assistant, saying many words with no meaning.

Guys, proper form is to attack the argument not the person that delivers it. Nobody wants to see this thread degenerate into name calling contest right?

Other than that I would like to hear your counter argument. What do you think will happen to the bitcoin price?

Disclosure: I own and mine both BTC and LTC.

That's what happened. When someone talks about how smart he is an answer along the lines of "no, lol" is completely appropriate.

[MatTheCat]

Disclosure: I own and mine both BTC and LTC.

This is a long shot.

Are you Q-bit from techpowerup forum?

[qbits]

Disclosure: I own and mine both BTC and LTC.

This is a long shot.

Are you Q-bit from techpowerup forum?

Nope. BTW there is no Q-Bit on techpowerup forum. Anyway I never posted there...

[sgbett]

What can I say. That was probably one of the most eye-opening things I have ever read on here. The early Bitcoin adopters were not cut-throat pirate financiers who like to drink babies' blood at the weekends on a full moon. They were wild-eyed libertarian zealots such as sgbett who have seriously lucked out. I made a 'near term price prediction' thread when Bitcoin was hovering at 790, telling people to go long Bitcoin, then short at 815-820 range. Bitcoin then done exactly as I predicted, at which point sgbett jumped into the thread and had a rant at my day-trading antics telling me that I should just be buying as many Bitcoins as I possibly can at these prices cos Bitcoin is going to $10K. Someone who bought Bitcoin at $1, getting ratty at someone successfully day-trading Bitcoin and demanding that the daytrader buy as many Bitcoins as he can, at $800!!

Your mad skills at trading are nothing compared to your insights! There was nothing special about that particular thread, you post so much crap that it makes no difference which I rant in.

You are the latest in a long line if day trading hero's. You fit the stereotype perfectly. There is no telling you about the perils, because you already know everything there is to know about everything.

The funniest thing is that I actually agree with all the bears on here right now, I think that the price in USD is going down. Some days I lose thousands of imaginary dollars. Oh the trauma. Perhaps I should sell out to buy back lower!!!

The difference between us, is that I don't think I am so smart as to be able to call the tops and bottoms. You can't. You might win some, you might lose some.

Every time you win, that is lucky, but you'll just rationalise it into how much of e leet trader you are. Every time you don't, then you'll dip into your grab bag of reasons why the market is rigged against you. If anyone tries to point any of this out to you, you'll become abusive and frenzied. You'll create entire fantasies to justify the way you think. You already hate me, even though you are "winning" and I am "losing". You've invented wild theories about how I am on the wrong side of trades, or making losses so I'm butthurt. When the truth is far less exotic. My entire investment strategy is boring. I minimise capital risk, I have investment horizons of decades.

All of this is far too sensible for the speculation forum though, so I advise SHOTR immediately, because that descending wedge on the 5 minute chart looks really bearish... or is it a triangle thats bearish... If only I was a trader...

[MatTheCat]

All of this is far too sensible for the speculation forum though, so I advise SHOTR immediately, because that descending wedge on the 5 minute chart looks really bearish... or is it a triangle thats bearish... If only I was a trader...

I had shorted well in advance of your advice but thanks anyway.

Quote this for truth:

Buy as much as the fuck you can, right the fuck now [Bitcoin at $806]. End of January comes and all the sell the (OMG CHINA BANNED BTC) rumours, are gonna buy the news. Not to mention all the "lets see what happens at the end of jan" dollars sat on the sidelines.

This bit of advice however was quite frankly fucking shit and kind of reveals you for what you are; a fat gormless old fool with zero acumen or ability that quite simply lucked out big time. You are the sort of idiot that will still be holding his coins when/if double figures come.

P.S. Hope you don't mind me being a bull for the next few days but I am, and with about 40% more coins in my Bitfinex speculation fund than I would have were I stupid enough to listen to fkn tards like you. Of course, I only buy 1:1 on the way up. I save the leverage for shorting cos I just love the sight of Bitcoin crashing through support after support.

P.P.S. I am not really a bull as clearly Bitcoin is going much further down. But since I have a stop loss set to take me out with at least a bit of profit, I can't really lose by going long to see if their is some respite for a day or two. I would love to take some more leverage short positions on Bitcoin at that big dirty $840 Ask wall, but I am away to my bed. We wouldn't want some fairy godmother whale cause my short stop loss to be called whilst I slept, would we?

[sgbett]

I'm finding it tricky to understand how your cognitive processes work, but I think you read other people's posts something like this...

I had shorted well in advance of your advice but

This

was quite frankly fucking shit

Hope you don't mind me

I am

stupid

for shorting cos I just love the sight of Bitcoin crashing