Difficulty prediction March 2014+

[putneg]

(im refering to that thread i cannot write in: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=327465.20)

Hi guys,

I'm relatively new to bitcoin mining so sorry if i sound misinformed

Anyway, I was wondering why people predict such low difficulty prediction numbers (around 1b-2b) while we all know what is coming.

People have bought THOUSANDS of very very powerful next gen ASIC stuff and just to give you an example, black arrow themselves said they are going to have 8000 2th/s boxes ready for late feb shipping. Thats 1.6ph/s that will drop on the network in the first days of march from this single supplier. That's 3 TIMES MORE than the entire bitcoin network produce now, from just one product from one supplier.

Now would anyone expect the total to go under 5-6? I don't think so. So why would the difficulty not rise as much? What would be keeping the difficulty down? Is there something I'm missing? Seems quite straightforward since when I look at the difficulty graph that it is pretty much pegged to the computing power.



So yeah, anyone care to explain?

[Puppet]

black arrow themselves said they are going to have 8000 2th/s boxes ready for late feb shipping.

Got a link for that?

Thats 1.6ph/s that will drop on the network in the first days of march from this single supplier.

You missed a decimal either here are above. 8000x2TH=16PH

[Blazey]

the difficulty is not parallel to hashrate. the formul is:

diff * 2^32 / 600 = hashrate

so if we try to reach 2 billion diff, we need 14PH of hashing power.

[Mentaso]

(im refering to that thread i cannot write in: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=327465.20)

Hi guys,

I'm relatively new to bitcoin mining so sorry if i sound misinformed

Anyway, I was wondering why people predict such low difficulty prediction numbers (around 1b-2b) while we all know what is coming.

People have bought THOUSANDS of very very powerful next gen ASIC stuff and just to give you an example, black arrow themselves said they are going to have 8000 2th/s boxes ready for late feb shipping. Thats 1.6ph/s that will drop on the network in the first days of march from this single supplier. That's 3 TIMES MORE than the entire bitcoin network produce now, from just one product from one supplier.

Now would anyone expect the total to go under 5-6? I don't think so. So why would the difficulty not rise as much? What would be keeping the difficulty down? Is there something I'm missing? Seems quite straightforward since when I look at the difficulty graph that it is pretty much pegged to the computing power.



So yeah, anyone care to explain?

We are actually getting some info from BlackArrow shortly, so I can hopefully confirm this 8000 x 2TH/s claim.
Im amazed you got some info as they have been real slack in replying. Perhaps you share the same office space as BlackArrow?

[romerun]

Thing is craps like black arrow are likely to be scam the day for preorde r bs has ended

[mvidetto]

March difficulty will most likely be in the 2.5b-5b range.

[Blazey]

March difficulty will most likely be in the 2.5b-5b range.

this is very unlikely as it requests the hashrate of 20 PH or more.

[bkminer]

March difficulty will most likely be in the 2.5b-5b range.

this is very unlikely as it requests the hashrate of 20 PH or more.

It's interesting to see how we used to think in November.  Today in January bitcoinwisdom.com reports:

Bitcoin Difficulty:                1,789,546,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:   2,333,891,351 (+30.42%)
Adjust time:                      After 1232 Blocks, About 7.3 days
Hashrate(?):                      15,657,784 GH/s