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Author Topic: Hedge fund boss: Bitcoin over gold? Are you kidding?  (Read 3460 times)
Lloydie
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February 04, 2014, 11:42:51 PM
 #41

Gold as a alternative currency, well good luck on that one, ever bought something with gold ? ever bought something with gold online ?

Gold is an excellent store of value but really sucks bad as a currency and that is why it has been replaced a long time ago with paper, you just don't carry gold around to pay for stuff, much too risky and as a merchant you just dont except gold as payment either, you need a lot of expertise to determine whether the gold is real or not and how much gold exactly of what purity your customer is offering you, and even if you have the expertise it consumes a lot of time to check all this, chances of getting conned are just too big. No gold really sucks bad as a currency.

Don't mean to bash anyone, but some of you are misinformed.

The world used to operate based on a Gold Standard, it actually was an excellent alternative currency - but only when things were "good". The reason for its failure, was because the standard performed/performs poorly during a crisis. Firstly, physical gold wasn't transferred between persons. Gold certificates were used as paper currency in the United States from 1882 to 1933. These certificates were freely convertible into gold coins. So you could "carry gold around and pay for stuff". Now it failed after World War II and is often blamed for prolonging the depression because during a crisis, persons HOARD their certificates/physical gold (of limited supply) which would halt the interchange of money. Production prices would rise, wages would fall, and no one could afford a thing. Adherence to the gold standard prevented the Federal Reserve from expanding the money supply to stimulate the economy, in comes fiat. So stimulation here was a good thing (whenever is it not? :-p).

Bitcoin in essence is the cyber version of the gold standard. It operates based on the same principles, easily transferable, limited supply. Its only benefit right now is that it can be transferred easily between hands and is anonymous. Now if bitcoin were the main currency of the world, it would operate the same way as gold, but would fail horribly during a crisis as persons would hoard their bitcoin, and it would be the Great Depression II.

As a side note, don't view bitcon as taking over the USD and operating as the worlds currency, that would be naive. If you view bitcoin as an alternative to Gold/a store of $$, then you see its value. If bitcoin were to capture 5% of golds marketcap that would be $200billion. We aren't even close to that yet.



As opposed to now, where each round of stimulus pushes debt levels higher? The cure that is offered by central banks is false and hollow. Excessive credit creation led to the first depression and will do so again. We can sustain higher debt levels for now but not for long.
Lloydie
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February 04, 2014, 11:45:46 PM
Last edit: February 04, 2014, 11:59:06 PM by Lloydie
 #42

The elimination of FRB via divisibility should cure the problem of excessive debts in the future. That is what I hope.

The point of failure during the Great Depression was building FRB on top of the gold standard. Bad move. Led to bank runs and creation of fiat out of thin air which necessitated the formation of the fed to bail out everyone.

As FRB continued, it became obvious that fiat outnumbered gold immensely hence the USD had to be devalued relative to gold.  The problem was always FRB not gold.
FandangledGizmo
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February 05, 2014, 12:18:06 AM
 #43

Don't mean to bash anyone, but some of you are misinformed.

The world used to operate based on a Gold Standard, it actually was an excellent alternative currency - but only when things were "good". The reason for its failure, was because the standard performed/performs poorly during a crisis. Firstly, physical gold wasn't transferred between persons. Gold certificates were used as paper currency in the United States from 1882 to 1933. These certificates were freely convertible into gold coins. So you could "carry gold around and pay for stuff". Now it failed after World War II and is often blamed for prolonging the depression because during a crisis, persons HOARD their certificates/physical gold (of limited supply) which would halt the interchange of money. Production prices would rise, wages would fall, and no one could afford a thing. Adherence to the gold standard prevented the Federal Reserve from expanding the money supply to stimulate the economy, in comes fiat. So stimulation here was a good thing (whenever is it not? :-p).

False.

The significant hoarding occurred not because of gold but because of the Federal reserve which changed the US dollar into an inflationary currency from 1913. 

http://www.westegg.com/inflation/infl.cgi

Quote
   What cost $100 in 1913 would cost $172.72 in 1929.   

The creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 gave the US an inflationary currency. This created a decrease in the personal savings rate and a loss of purchasing power. It also lead to the funding of many unsustainable and uncompetitive business models. (The roaring twenties.)

So when a crisis occurred - 1929

Many many people from unsustainable and uncompetitive businesses found themselves unemployed.
The unemployed and employed alike had little savings so they couldn't benefit from the increase in purchasing power deflation brings.
As a result the unemployed starved and the employed hoarded their income to spend only on necessities.

Had they had a mildly deflationary currency leading up to 1929... There would have been an increase in purchasing power & the personal savings rate. Only more competitive and sustainable businesses would have been funded.

So when a crisis occurred - 1929

Because of more prudent investment, existing businesses would be far more sturdy and the initial crisis would be less severe, leaving fewer unemployed. Those that were unemployed would have had savings which would increase in purchasing power allowing them to sustain themselves. The employed would have savings too, in addition to their income, both of which would increase in purchasing power, quickly giving them excess. This would cause them to spend & invest more and re-stimulate the economy, perhaps culling a few unhealthy business in the process.

Looking at the short history of Bitcoin, the early savers now have excess purchasing power. This excess purchasing power has been used to invest in hundreds of interesting start-ups & further develop the crypto-currency economy as well as being used to make purchases with the thousands of merchants that have been attracted to Bitcoin too. The growth in purchasing power also continually attracts new savers, speculators and investors alike into the economy. Of course there will still be a few excesses, but a few Shiba Inus being periodically culled is healthy.
Lloydie
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February 05, 2014, 12:33:13 AM
 #44

umm, bitcoin IS gold 2.0.  It's combining gold with features required for money in a tech economy.  Smiley
FalconFly
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February 05, 2014, 03:48:12 PM
 #45

umm, bitcoin IS gold 2.0.  It's combining gold with features required for money in a tech economy.  Smiley

*uhm*

In the investment/financial world, just remember one thing :
There is no such thing "as good as gold" (no substitute, no V2.0 nor anything else). There can be only one. That is gold as defined by its place in the periodical table of elements, physical in your own hands.
Anytime you think different, your investment is a) not gold and/or b) at risk.

Bitcoin in its present form can vanish/cease to function or take significant damage within a few days/weeks at anytime, gold can't. Small detail, big difference.
That's the risk you take on going with sexy & modern substitutes (which - don't get me wrong - can be highly profitable, but the higher the profit, the higher the risk usually was/is. Just never ignore or forget those risks or you'll eventually get burned.).

This forum signature is like its owner - it can't be bought
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