Predictability of Bitcoin - drop to $6000 then up to over $7000 within weeks?

[NoviceInvestor]

Looking at the charts for the whole year, it did look as if the recent bull run could be the start of a sustained recovery. If you fit a line down from the December 2017 peak, then it did look as if the drop had finished, and it could start going up again. But, with the current fall, it looks like just another up/down bump on the graph. It just shows that simply looking at the graph isn't enough to predict price movements.

I'll predict that within the next month the price will go down to break $6000, and then go up to over $7000 again. I make these predictions only to see how my predictions come out. I want to have more accuracy in predicting the market before I commit my money.

[harizen]

As always especially in crypto world, past performance can't guarantee a future result.

Graph reading can be a reference and good recipe in making an analyzation but generally, speculations came from it are based on pure lines disregarding any future events that can spoiled the momentum of bitcoin price on the way. Recent price increase weeks ago for example, most speculators sees it as a start of bull run because it was the same as last years performance wherein from $2,000+ it goes on a crazy pump and lasts until the end of the year. It may happened though today but still not an assurance.

So for me, if the purpose is just to hold then I don't mind even going back to below $6,000. What matters here is, we have lots of reasons to believed that a "crazy bull run" will happened again. For when it wiill happened? No one knows.

[STT]

Wel its recovered some and then reset again with this latest fall below the 50 day moving average.  So once again Bitcoin goes in a circle



It did attempt to break this falling channel yesterday but failed to close it out on the daily bar, reversing those gains with further falls today

[BitHodler]

Good thing about the current drop is that we will find out how strong the $6000-$5700 range really is. It's not very usual for a market to stay strong after so many attempts to test such a crucial support range.

It will be the fourth test this year and I honestly don't know how long it can hold if its being tested that often. If you keep falling back it's a clear sign that there is no sustainable demand for Bitcoin above the $6000 mark.

On a more positive note, it's time for a crypto summer sale and in case the price does happen to drop further, let's jump in and make use of the opportunity. Bear market or not, never say no to discounted Bitcoins.

[kendedese]

In my opinion, bull run will not happen in the near future. many investors are frustrated because the bear market lasts very long. and this will make bitcoin prices difficult to rise.

[Pursuer]

I still don't think we can break $6k and stay below it because there is a strong buy support there. we may drop below because a lot of buy orders are not placed, but there are watchers that will automatically place them if price reaches that level or goes below.

as for the rise I believe that we first need to get past the ETF drama that has been with us for about a month now and then we can see a better market that we can actually predict. otherwise it can always depend on SEC decision and as long as they postpone that decision we will continue to have that uncertainty in the market that makes investors think twice before coming back.

[Jating]

Looking at the charts for the whole year, it did look as if the recent bull run could be the start of a sustained recovery. If you fit a line down from the December 2017 peak, then it did look as if the drop had finished, and it could start going up again. But, with the current fall, it looks like just another up/down bump on the graph. It just shows that simply looking at the graph isn't enough to predict price movements.

How can we predict when there's a lot of factors that contributed to the price movement. And the most important thing is that its based on pure speculation, a wild but educated guess.

I'll predict that within the next month the price will go down to break $6000, and then go up to over $7000 again. I make these predictions only to see how my predictions come out. I want to have more accuracy in predicting the market before I commit my money.

Let's see mate. I'm bullish about bitcoin and love hearing a lot of prediction. I'm specially curious if we can really break that $6K and bottom once again and see if the investors or speculators are done with this bearish trend and will try to make it bullish as everyone has been expecting this August. Gonna be interesting and the future still good for all of us.

[talkbitcoin]

I'll predict that within the next month the price will go down to break $6000, and then go up to over $7000 again.

it is a possible guess that i would have probably disagreed with a couple of days ago because although i knew the ETF hype was real but i didn't think it is this big but we are being proven otherwise as the panic sellers strike again

[millensharon8]

Good thing about the current drop is that we will find out how strong the $6000-$5700 range really is. It's not very usual for a market to stay strong after so many attempts to test such a crucial support range.

It will be the fourth test this year and I honestly don't know how long it can hold if its being tested that often. If you keep falling back it's a clear sign that there is no sustainable demand for Bitcoin above the $6000 mark.

On a more positive note, it's time for a crypto summer sale and in case the price does happen to drop further, let's jump in and make use of the opportunity. Bear market or not, never say no to discounted Bitcoins.

I fully agree with your points. Nevertheless, testing that $5700 - $6000 range may be a good thing to know how the support here will hold, but one thing is that, the more you test a support during a bear trend, the more the likelihood of breaking it eventually, unless with some very great news to push volume into the market. The market is still very bearish, so I am not certainly sure we may be able to hold this and a break lower to form a lower low may drive us very fast towards the $3k region, give or take!

Fundamentally though, things may change a little bit with the ETF proposal if investors hopefully see it as a chance to be getting in anyway based on that. Also, with respect to your last paragraph, this is one sure huge discount no one wants to be missing at this stage. I would be surprised though if some people do not end up missing it and eventually come back when bitcoin is huge in value to start calling for a crash to $3000 in the future. In summary, it is best to take advantage of moments like this.

[NoviceInvestor]

I think there is a significant amount of belief that there will be another massive bull run in December. So, until then, I don't believe that Bitcoin will fall significantly below $6000, nor stay under $6000 for any long period.

If there isn't a huge bull run in December, then I think that market sentiment will turn even further away from belief in Bitcoin and all bets will be off. However, I expect there to be some sort of bull run in December even if solely because people believe it will happen. However, if there is a bull run, then I expect a crash in January and into 2019.

I expect that any bull run in December won't go to $20,000, because people buying now will be aware of the boom-bust nature of the market, and some will wish to take profits. If it was me buying at $6000 then I'd be very happy to sell at $10,000 to take a sizeable profit. If too many people follow similar strategies, then this in itself could prevent the market matching the previous peak.

However, how do you spot a sustained bull run in real time. If you watch a bull run too long by the time you buy in it might be near the end, and therefore no less risky than buying at the start of a bull run.

Note that I make no claims of ability to accurately predict the future. I make predictions to see if my current beliefs about Bitcoin are correct or not. They haven't always been. E.g. I thought that Bitcoin would fall significantly below $5000, but it didn't.

[1Referee]

I think there is a significant amount of belief that there will be another massive bull run in December. So, until then, I don't believe that Bitcoin will fall significantly below $6000, nor stay under $6000 for any long period.  

Why not? People expecting a bull run have bought in already, meaning that they won't be adding much or any buy support to the market at all. If you also take into consideration that most of the people expecting a bull run this year are noobs, there isn't much to rely on here. People need to forget about bull runs and move on. If people can't deal with this market they are free to sell and leave.

However, I expect there to be some sort of bull run in December even if solely because people believe it will happen. However, if there is a bull run, then I expect a crash in January and into 2019.

I don't think you know how bull runs work. They don't happen because people believe it will happen, because that means they have bought in already as stated before. Bull runs happen when no one expects them to happen and people fomo in hard. You know what happens if there is an attempt to initiate a bull run right now? People will dump their bags and quickly undo whatever had to become a bull run.

[NoviceInvestor]

I think there is a significant amount of belief that there will be another massive bull run in December. So, until then, I don't believe that Bitcoin will fall significantly below $6000, nor stay under $6000 for any long period.  

Why not? People expecting a bull run have bought in already, meaning that they won't be adding much or any buy support to the market at all. If you also take into consideration that most of the people expecting a bull run this year are noobs, there isn't much to rely on here. People need to forget about bull runs and move on. If people can't deal with this market they are free to sell and leave.

Even if people are invested, they often can still buy more. The price is $6320 as I write. If it goes down to $5700, then I expect some of the people currently not buying to fill their boots even more. Also, not everyone may have bought coins yet. E.g. It's also quite possible that there are people who missed the previous low waiting for it to go lower, but will snap up at $5700 (as an example price) if it happens again. There are people who believe in both a December bull run but also that Bitcoin will fall much lower than $5000. Those people may not yet be invested, but still may do so at a higher level as December draws closer.

However, I expect there to be some sort of bull run in December even if solely because people believe it will happen. However, if there is a bull run, then I expect a crash in January and into 2019.

I don't think you know how bull runs work. They don't happen because people believe it will happen, because that means they have bought in already as stated before. Bull runs happen when no one expects them to happen and people fomo in hard. You know what happens if there is an attempt to initiate a bull run right now? People will dump their bags and quickly undo whatever had to become a bull run.

Sentiment is everything in a market such as Bitcoin. For there to be a sustained bull run, then prices need to start going up, but those who bought in at lower levels (including those holding now) to hold during the bull run to prevent the supply/demand ratio getting too high. Otherwise people will just dump as you say, as has happened in the recent blip we've had, and several similar blips during the year. So, belief in a extended bull run in December, which is certainly frequently expressed, can certainly influence whether any bull run at that time becomes a sustained bull run.

In your discussion, you seem to be assuming that there is only one type of investor - e.g. that everyone who believes in a December bull run will already be fully invested in Bitcoin. This is an over-simplification of the situation.

[davis196]

Looking at the charts for the whole year, it did look as if the recent bull run could be the start of a sustained recovery. If you fit a line down from the December 2017 peak, then it did look as if the drop had finished, and it could start going up again. But, with the current fall, it looks like just another up/down bump on the graph. It just shows that simply looking at the graph isn't enough to predict price movements.

I'll predict that within the next month the price will go down to break $6000, and then go up to over $7000 again. I make these predictions only to see how my predictions come out. I want to have more accuracy in predicting the market before I commit my money.

If every trader had the ability to predict the crypto market with 100% accuracy,nobody would make any profits out of crypto trading.When you trade,the profit you make is some other trader's loss.It's a zero sum game.If you really wanna wait until you gain the knowledge to predict the crypto prices,you will have to wait forever.

[NoviceInvestor]

If every trader had the ability to predict the crypto market with 100% accuracy,nobody would make any profits out of crypto trading.When you trade,the profit you make is some other trader's loss.It's a zero sum game.If you really wanna wait until you gain the knowledge to predict the crypto prices,you will have to wait forever.

In order to have a reasonably expectation of making money on crypto prices, you don't have to predict the crypto market with 100% accuracy. You'd only need to be able to predict the crypto market better than a sizeable number of other people can. E.g. when to get out.  So that there is someone prepared to buy your coins when you want to exit.

And, I'm not waiting until I can predict with 100% accuracy. I'm waiting until I believe that I have enough understanding of the market so that the chance of me 'winning' is high enough to make it a rational bet to buy.

I don't know why you say 'every trader'. As being able to make money in zero-sum markets, you need there to be a population of investors who don't really know what they are doing. There is plenty of evidence that there are such people in crypto.

[hatshepsut93]

Bitcoin will continue going up and down like this until the ETF drama will resolve. The price can be really unpredictable because of the manipulation attempts, rumors, insider information and so on. I wouldn't try to predict the price for such a short period, only when the price have moved a lot you can make some sort of prediction. For example, it was highly likely that the price will go down again when we reached 8k, because bull run doesn't make any sense now.

[NoviceInvestor]

Bitcoin will continue going up and down like this until the ETF drama will resolve. The price can be really unpredictable because of the manipulation attempts, rumors, insider information and so on. I wouldn't try to predict the price for such a short period, only when the price have moved a lot you can make some sort of prediction. For example, it was highly likely that the price will go down again when we reached 8k, because bull run doesn't make any sense now.

I personally don't think the ETF drama resolving will stabilise the price of Bitcoin. It would only do so if the price of Bitcoin was due to fundamentals, rather than speculation.

[BrewMaster]

Bitcoin will continue going up and down like this until the ETF drama will resolve. The price can be really unpredictable because of the manipulation attempts, rumors, insider information and so on. I wouldn't try to predict the price for such a short period, only when the price have moved a lot you can make some sort of prediction. For example, it was highly likely that the price will go down again when we reached 8k, because bull run doesn't make any sense now.

I personally don't think the ETF drama resolving will stabilise the price of Bitcoin. It would only do so if the price of Bitcoin was due to fundamentals, rather than speculation.

all these ups and downs for the past month or so has been because of ETF. the rise was building up nicely with a slow pace when the ETF drama started and we suddenly saw a surge. then they denied Winkle brothers ETF and we had a drop then they postponed their decision for another ETF and we had another drop.
all everyone is talking about these days is ETF. some even talk about it as if bitcoin would die without it!!!

when all that goes away we will have a much calmer market. it will still be bitcoin and volatile but at least the drama would be lifted.

[hatshepsut93]

all these ups and downs for the past month or so has been because of ETF. the rise was building up nicely with a slow pace when the ETF drama started and we suddenly saw a surge. then they denied Winkle brothers ETF and we had a drop then they postponed their decision for another ETF and we had another drop.
all everyone is talking about these days is ETF. some even talk about it as if bitcoin would die without it!!!

when all that goes away we will have a much calmer market. it will still be bitcoin and volatile but at least the drama would be lifted.

But then there might be some new drama. In the last year the price has suffered from wild swings because of forks and ICO/crypto bans. There was a small drop when Winklevoss ETF got rejected, then there was a huge drop before SegWit signalling period, follow by a pump due to successful outcome, then we had a crash when China banned exchanges and so on. There are still a lot of impactful events in the future, maybe it will be something about Lightning Network, maybe some regulations or adoption by big companies.