Good analysis op. I feel that Ethereum could drop even further since there is no major positive news to help the market rally like crazy and the prolonged bear market might persist for some more time before rallying again. I am expecting the market to revive sometime during August. All coins including Ethereum have been affected by this bear market which is why I suggest HODLING whatever coins and tokens you have in your portfolio since this is a bad time to sell.
Big ICOs use to give a boost to the price of Ethereum in the past. It is hard to get such that's days in a bear that seem go worse by the day. It is good advise as you suggested not to sell our holdings at such a bad market