One last update in here.
It's increasingly obvious to me that we are in some variation of the downwards channel I pointed out in my first post. I'm not going to claim I know the exact parameters of it, but I believe it's similar enough to the ones below (or the one in my OP).
In addition, we just saw a daily MACD centerline crossover, after hovering around the centerline for a while already. It's not inevitably a confirmation that we're in a bear market, but it sure takes a solid amount of sideways movement and decline to get to this point.
Next, daily CMF turned negative, for the first time during the post-December consolidation. Note the similarity to June 2013, where the same event marked the final leg down of the post-April consolidation/bear market (the downtrend lasted for about 1 more month back then).
Finally, looking at the medians of median-price range during major swings, we now crossed below the lowest of those middle points I track (corresponding to the 2nd violent downward movement following the December double top). Comparing this to the 2013 consolidation period, the picture is difficult to compare, I admit. In 2013 we saw a declining series of those middle points, while the picture now is less clear to me, but one thing is clear: we are now below the lowest of the medians, and previously this corresponded to a continuation of previous downtrends.
Putting it all together, I see more and more evidence we're in another downward leg of the post-December consolidation period. If you're optimistically inclined, I will add that it might be the *final* leg, so whether you plan to sit it out (i.e. hold) or not is up to you. To me it strongly looks like, unless we pick up some serious upwards momentum tomorrow or on Monday, we're in for another period of decline (which I can see to last up to another month). Note though the conditional above: the situation can turn around if buying pressure suddenly reappears (maybe if we get some great news from gox on Monday?), but more sideways action or more decline in the coming days makes the bearish case much more likely, in my opinion.
