[2018-06-30] Hayes: A Positive Regulatory Etf Will Push BTC to $50,000 in 2018

[moriskarlov]

Arthur Hayes, the Co-Founder and CEO of BitMEX, a Peer-to-Peer Trading Platform that offers leveraged contracts that are bought and sold in Bitcoin predicts that the pioneer cryptocurrency will sell for at least $50,000 by the end of 2018.

Hayes made his prediction while speaking on the CNBC Fast Money show on June 29 2018. This prediction has been described as a “SuperBowlish Forecast”.

One step away

According to Hayes, the cryptocurrency is just one positive regulatory decision away from climbing through $20,000 on its way to $50,000 by the end of the year.

Considering the slump in price that Bitcoin has experienced for most part of 2018, Hayes remains bullish, noting such as a normal correction.

“I think that something that goes up to $20,000 in one year can have a correction down to $6,000 and will definitely find a bottom at about $3,000 and $5,000 range”, says Hayes.

This insinuation definitely upholds the opinions of most long term investors who have continued to HODL, seeing every deep as an opportunity to buy more Bitcoins into their portfolios.

Volatility depends on Price

BitMEX is the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume, and Hayes says that his company has so far tripled its total trading volume of 2017 already in what he describes as a great year.

While a lot of people may assume that cryptocurrency volatility, especially Bitcoin is simply all about price movement, Hayes, whose company actually thrives on volatility explains that the slump in price actually reduces the level of volatility in the market. Hence, for the market to be vibrant, increased capitalization is necessary.

Hayes expresses confidence in the predicted trend reversal citing historical patterns that have seen Bitcoin post some significant corrections in the past. In his opinion, the cycles are even expected to happen quicker these days considering the increased volume being traded in the market.

One of the key positive regulations that Hayes suggest will trigger this forecasted bullish rum for Bitcoin is the ETF. He notes that the ETF will bring real money to the table, as primary dealers have to go and get inventory, and there will be subscriptions for real money to buy the asset.

https://www.ccn.com/hayes-a-positive-regulatory-etf-will-push-bitcoin-to-50000-in-2018/

[gentlemand]

The most likely route for an ETF will be one based on futures - ie cash settled that never, ever touches Bitcoin itself. The ETF that would really make the difference would be a properly custodial one with direct market exposure but I'm not sure they'll ever be able to put one of those together.

Either way this geezer doesn't really mind. He makes a ton of money no matter what the price does. I suppose he throws out stuff like this to get more deadbeats through his casino's doors.

[richardsNY]

The most likely route for an ETF will be one based on futures - ie cash settled that never, ever touches Bitcoin itself. The ETF that would really make the difference would be a properly custodial one with direct market exposure but I'm not sure they'll ever be able to put one of those together.

Read into the VanEck & Solidx ETF. All funds invested in this ETF will be used to buy Bitcoin, and we're not talking about silly amounts as entry point. It's going to be an ETF that will reshape the market once institutions go nuts on it. Major benefit of this ETF is that you as wealthy entity don't need to worry about buying the price up if you pull out your big guns. The regulatory framework has changed significantly compared to when the previous ETF's were rejected, and the terms of the ETF are different now. The odds of this ETF to be approved are higher than it not being approved.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/investment-firm-vaneck-attempts-new-bitcoin-etf-filing-aims-at-institutional-players

Does anyone even know what happened with the Winklevoss ETF review? Since last year no word from the Winklevoss twins or the regulators at all.

[gentlemand]

Read into the VanEck & Solidx ETF. All funds invested in this ETF will be used to buy Bitcoin, and we're not talking about silly amounts as entry point. It's going to be an ETF that will reshape the market once institutions go nuts on it.

We still don't know if there's going to be a custodial solution that'll satisfy the SEC. With something running off futures that aspect's already covered from every angle by existing arrangements. I hope it does happen but it's not the SEC's job to take a chance.

And the question remains about policing the Bitcoin market. The SEC can only approve something on a market where they can prosecute the piss takers, that's their remit and that's what gives them the authority to approve things that appear on said markets. That's never going to be possible with crypto as it's worldwide.

Maybe this has been somehow addressed but it looks like a hump that can't be gotten over. GBTC did it by bypassing SEC jurisdiction.

[richardsNY]

And the question remains about policing the Bitcoin market. The SEC can only approve something on a market where they can prosecute the piss takers, that's their remit and that's what gives them the authority to approve things that appear on said markets. That's never going to be possible with crypto as it's worldwide.

Everything happens through regulated platforms.

The ETF itself will be listed on CBOE's platform, where the coins are being supplied by a few selected regulated exchanges providing a so called OTC service dedicated to this ETF. Whoever is buying this ETF, they'll be known and have no opportunity to hide. The only way to cheat is to pump or dump the market through other exchanges, but that form of manipulation applies to the futures listed on CBOE and CME as well.