Buckle Your Seatbelts

[spacegoat]

^^^ To respond to the cut and paste above, this guy is talking about felony and laws and so forth, and a good percentage of the population knows that that's all bullshit, since weed should be legal.  Lawyers are performing violence against the human race, and this guy is either rich and can afford to use law as a weapon or shield, or he's not able to see that a lot of laws are just controlling bullshit.

His points about transactions being recorded, are somewhat salient, but not enough to stop what bitcoin represents.  I hate lawyers, and I love guns, so what does that say?  Many people will never agree with me.  Crypto, from the outset, has been seen as an enabler of crime.  But in fact, the very essence of crime is, doing what the authority says you can't do.  In Russia or China, the government is the biggest criminal, and the USA is tilting down that road as well.  The minute the banks of the US get raided like Cyprus, pretty much all lawyers will have to run for cover, because guns and crypto will be far more valuable to them.

When the banks crash, as they must, the US military will be running the courts.  Traditionally, gold and silver were mostly used to pay soldiers in booty (See David Graeber's (sp?) fine youtubes on debt) and so the question essentially becomes this:  How many US soldiers, reservists, or militiamen, are bitcoin enabled and crypto proficient?  That's the only essential question for the next 20 years.  Lawyers as such, have inflated their profession beyond all human concern, and so they have in essence, debauched law itself.  Law, will have to find its own center after the banks collapse.  I think it will do so, but we will have to go through a sort of "Liberty Valance" type of era, where lawyers are mostly seen as vermin.  Just my two cents.

david graeber is great
it seems that much gnarly shite will go down in the next 20 years- will bitcoin or cryptocurrency survive?  max keiser's theory that bitcoin could take over is pretty nice, I like the idea, I like the idea of the establishment just sort of killing over nice and easy as we turn our backs on it, giving way to a common sensical means of open source human evolution..

[slilley]

Again, thanks to everyone for the replies.  Debate is a healthy thing and anyone who is so hardened in their ideas that they aren't willing to listen to contrary points of view has a problem, in my opinion.  It is a sign of intelligence and maturity to consider that you might not know everything and be open to new information.

That said, I think the ultimate argument in favor of bitcoin adoption by the masses, in the near future, is that THE TITANIC IS SINKING.  Just ask people in Cyprus if they wish they had known about an alternative, ANY ALTERNATIVE, prior to their money being stolen.  Bitcoin has flaws.  It's not a perfect system.  Perhaps others are better, and as time goes on its limitations will become more clear.  Hopefully with the collective intelligence and effort of the community we can overcome the limitations as they appear and make it a usable tool for the masses in the future.  However, right now it's the "least worst" alternative currency system in existence and as such the leading candidate for the masses of panicked people concerned about the safety of their assets to panic into.  No doubt gold and silver will get some of the money flow, but gold and silver don't enable modern electronic commerce to continue the way bitcoin does.  In the above-referenced article regarding the small IT business in Cyprus, they didn't say that they were planning to start paying employees in gold or silver, they planned to start paying in bitcoin.  Why?  Again, I think it's obvious that as a payment system bitcoin has tremendous advantages over the precious metals, while also acting as a store of value.  Also, it's hard to argue with the fact that as an investment, the precious metals might have an appreciation potential of 10-20x in dollar price.  Yes, gold and silver are heavily manipulated and suppressed and ample evidence exists to support that theory.  Market demand will eventually overwhelm the price suppression scheme, leading to some fantastic gains in dollar value.  But on the other hand, bitcoin has an ultimate appreciation potential of perhaps 1000x or even more.  There could easily be another 10-20x appreciation just this year.  Also, just try crossing any border in the near future with large amounts of precious metals (and the definition of large amounts is changing rapidly).  Bitcoin alleviates all those problems.  If you're a panicked investor or even regular joe looking to get out of the banking system AND you're informed about bitcoin enough to understand these things, where are you going to put your money?

The fact of the matter is that we will find out soon enough which of all the theories is correct.  The crisis of confidence in the banking system brought on by the debacle in Cyprus is, in my opinion, a bridge too far.  I think the fuse has been lit, and although it will take a while to play out in all its facets, ultimately now the public has been put on notice that they can't really trust the system any more.  If trust is destroyed, why use a bank at all?  I personally came to the conclusion more than two years ago that the banking system was untrustworthy, so I set out to find alternatives.  First I started banking like an illegal alien, cashing all checks at the originating bank if possible, asking for cash whenever possible, getting money orders to pay bills.  I obtained a prepaid debit card and began to use it for all online purchases, funding it with cash immediately prior.  I don't leave quantities of money anywhere except in my personal possession.  I still have a traditional bank account from before and it occasionally comes in handy, but mostly to me they are just a check cashing service and it irks me every time I have to wait for a check to clear before I can withdraw the money.  When the banks close they will get very little of my assets.  As a side note, I also did the mental arithmetic early on that this lifestyle necessarily leads to having significant quantities of cash or other assets in one's personal possession.  I have a legal state-issued concealed carry permit and the only place I am not armed is the shower.  Anyone wanting to "acquire" my assets will have to do it the old fashioned way, at considerable personal risk.

My research into money and the banking system led me to an understanding of fiat currency and fractional reserve banking.  It became apparent to me that the whole thing, all of global finance, is just one massive ponzi scheme pulled over the eyes of humanity to blind them from the truth.  It is destined to fail, and like all ponzi schemes will fail shortly after the redemption requests begin to exceed new money inflows.  This happened in 2008 and of course the money pumps were turned on to keep the ponzi going, but this is not without side effects and consequences.  Now we are seeing the beginning of the endgame.  Hopefully most everyone on this forum knows all this already, so I won't rehash it any more.

But my research also led me to bitcoin.  I was stunned.  I spent a good two days back in 2011 just trying to wrap my mind around the concept so I could get an understanding of how it worked.  I scrounged every last penny I could get my hands on to buy in with.  Literally: I cashed in my change jar $50 and $100 at a time and bought bitcoin with it.  Now I'm pretty pleased with how my spare change has done.  I started mining too but only came out slightly ahead versus my initial investment on that score.  For the first time ever, instead of being chained to the deck rail of the sinking Titanic, now there was a LIFEBOAT to get into.

Now we're at the place where Joe Q. Public is close to where I was several years ago.  The banking system is looking shaky and more people are slinging around terms like "fiat currency" and "fractional reserve banking" in conversation.  Even out in public now it's not uncommon to overhear conversations like this going on.  So the ground has been plowed and is ready to be planted with the seeds of knowledge that people need to hear.  What I'm doing is trying to save as many as I can and hopefully have a whole (small) town with the nucleus of a functioning bitcoin economy before the banks close here.  All I can do is plant seeds, but right now the bankers and the evening news are doing a great job of watering them and helping them grow.  I want this town to be a "bitcoin Mecca" to coin a phrase, one that will continue to function in the collapse that's coming.

I am now contemplating running an anonymous bitcoin public service announcement in the local newspaper, something like "Haven't heard about bitcoin yet?  Go to weusecoins.com and find out!"  I want to prime the pump and get people ready.  My personal friends and family have already heard all this from me directly, but there's a bunch of other folks here that haven't.  Some of them will google "bitcoin" or visit the weusecoins website and begin educating themselves.  Perhaps not many, but each one that begins learning is a seed that's growing and will then reach out and touch their circle of friends, family, and associates.

If my experiment in "bitcoinizing" this town is successful, then perhaps eventually some of the other bitcoin early adopters might prefer to relocate to a place where they are wanted and appreciated, and their bitcoin assets will stimulate the local economy at a time when most everything else is falling apart.  I want to become the "Zimbabwe" in my earlier example and emulate the historical example of the "Miracle of Worgl", which occurred in Worgl, Austria from 1932-1933, in the middle of the Great Depression.  This town successfully dealt with unemployment and poverty by issuing a local currency even while the towns around them were suffering badly.  The experiment ended when the central bank shut down their currency, and they went back to being just as miserable as everyone else.  For more information, see:

http://ingienous.com/?page_id=6673
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W%C3%B6rgl

Here in this small rural Texas community we have significant agricultural production, so as long as the farmers can keep farming the town will be able to eat regardless of how bad the economy gets.  I personally eat our own home-grown pork, beef, chicken, and eggs.  It's free range, grass fed, hormone free beef.  I can look out my window and count my cows and decide which one will become dinner next.  So all of you other bitcoin people that enjoy your city lifestyle, what will you be eating when the banks close and the grocery stores go empty?  Dried beans and rice?  Perhaps you might consider a move.  Here your bitcoin might buy you a real steak dinner, for the moment at my house if nowhere else.

[No 1]

what the crap did i just read?

[StephenJH]

At least some creative thought was used. I liked the read. I agree completely as long as people aren't buying bitcoins instead of food... unless they're fat.

[itsunderstood]

[...]

Yes, gold and silver are heavily manipulated and suppressed and ample evidence exists to support that theory.  Market demand will eventually overwhelm the price suppression scheme

[...]

Also, just try crossing any border in the near future with large amounts of precious metals (and the definition of large amounts is changing rapidly).  Bitcoin alleviates all those problems

[...]

Now we are seeing the beginning of the endgame.  [...] I want this town to be a "bitcoin Mecca" to coin a phrase, one that will continue to function in the collapse that's coming. [...]  If my experiment in "bitcoinizing" this town is successful, then perhaps eventually some of the other bitcoin early adopters might prefer to relocate to a place where they are wanted and appreciated

[...]

Great post slilley, I snipped it to identify some key points.

One point 1 about gold and silver being suppressed, this is documented fact that since Bretton Woods, the US has tried to hold gold at 35 dollars per ounce.  Once it was allowed to float in the 1970s, it rose, but they controlled it via leasing schemes.  And on this point I wanted to ask if anybody here has read Jim Rickard's analysis of how the Chinese might perhaps be secretly behind a lot of the Cayman/Bermuda gold leasing front companies, and how at some precise moment, China could demand physical, while also triggering their secret hedge funds to do the same?

Jim's theory would surely result in GLD being halted, and probably FOREX itself would implode.  However, not a lot of paper longs realize that the law allows them to be paid of in USD when and if the exchange implodes.  That's a fact which came up in the Potato Squeeze Default of the 1970s, anybody who is long paper, when the exchange is squeezed, can be settled out in USD if default occurs.  I doubt many of the GLD investors know this, they think they will have some sort of recourse when China destroys the GLD forex market.  But no, they will get USD as a settlement, no gold will be available.  Jim's scenario is absolutely correct, imo.  Its straight up financial war endgame, when the Chinese demand physical delivery and reveal their secret hedge funds.  BOOM goes forex, and the tears of all the paper longs will be a huge river, as they have to accept a devalued (by what % nobody knows) USD, on the day/week that this all goes down.

As to point #2 above, yes you made great points about this with cash sniffing dogs and so forth, when the other shoe drops and the elites grab for the bank accounts here in the US, cash will be essentially like carrying drugs and stop and frisk, roadside confiscations, etc, will escalate.  Naturally this is where bitcoin will have a distinct advantage, as one can store their wallet on a micro-SD card, or even a physical paper wallet which folds into roughly the same size.  Easily hidden on the body.  And again, this means that the stop-and-frisks and the vehicle searches, will become far more invasive as a result, since that all-powerful microsd card, is the needle in the haystack for the future asshead authority who has the power to search you and/or your children, because they also might have something on their person.  I am being purposefully overt here, as to what the searching powers will do, to make the point that frankly, you probably already know.  But one element that makes it truly frightening is how the masses will put their heads down and submit to absolutely ANYTHING, to get through that checkpoint.  They will submit utterly, and yes, they will allow their children to be privately strip searched, anything at all, just to save their lives and get through the checkpoint.  So those who are operating on your level, will have to think several moves ahead, as you already know.

Your third point above, wherein you describe the idea of a whole town that runs on bitcoin, makes me consider the dangers of clustering, and also the dangers of the least-informed or weakest link, in the community:  You said you have read the "I am a Central Bank" thread here at this forum, and so have I, I recently replied to it.  The OP of that thread is correct when he describes the ends, that the money-issuing class will go to, to make bitcoin submit. 

Therefore, I would say that it is prudent to proceed with caution as to how sunny the world will be, when the shit hits the fan.  I mean, frankly, the simple tactic I would use if I were gameplaying a commander against your bitcoin mecca, would be to have a sniffing drone above your town, and dialing in the VPN or just wait for someone on the fringes to not use a VPN, and then after x number of days when I have a good IP thumbprint of the town and specifically, the nature and size of the bitcoin wallets of the town, I could just destroy it utterly, and use the previously captured data to then collect from the bitcoin wallets of the dead. (I also do have a plan to defeat this, PM me for details if you want to talk further )

Sure this is mad max type gameplay, but its important not to underestimate the nature of a covert war which is being waged all around us.  I am saying that when this war goes hot (when US depositors at street level have their bank accounts frozen), the evil powers will conduct war using low-morality warfighters (or imported Hessians) who are told that whatever they kill, they can keep.  So since you describe yourself as being already in the correct defensive mindset, I am sure you are having your friends assume the same mindset.

Probably when the US decides to pull a Cyprus event, they will try to roll it slowly, so that the majority of the people think to themselves "Oh well sucks for them, but MY bank is still safe!" although this contagion may or may not be controllable, as banks scramble.  But the point is that with Cyprus, we have crossed the rubicon, and there is no way to go back.  Depositor confidence has been wrecked.  But my point is that when there is wealth that cannot be hidden (like bitcoin traffic), it is sure that there will be Sheriff of Nottingham types on the hillside, who will know that by taking your town, they can make their gold pile richer.  As a commander who understands how to field armies that live on booty collected, I could assume that collecting data on the town ahead of time, would be the key point, such that once I have a few private keys sufficient to pay my soldiers, I can lay waste to the whole town.  So make sure to keep your people informed as to how they engage with their bitcoins.  If they are not discreet, the scent of money might call the wolves, and if their private key can be gotten, then their elimination could be seen as more likely.

[DirtyGoldMan]

Cryptocurrencies have a secondary problem in that because they are not self-validating there is a time delay between your proposed transaction using a given token and when you can know that the token is valid.  Bitcoin typically takes a few minutes (about 10) to gain reasonable certainty that a given token is good, but quite a bit longer (an hour or so) to know with reasonable certainty that it is good.  That is, it is computationally reasonable to believe after 10 minutes or so that the chain integrity you are relying on is good.  It approaches computational impracticality after about an hour that the chain is invalid.

This is not a problem where ordering of a good or service and fulfillment is separated by a reasonable amount of time, but for "point of transaction" situations it is a very serious problem.  If you wish to fill up your tank with gasoline, for example, few people are going to be willing to wait for 10 minutes, say much less an hour, before being permitted to pump the gas -- or drive off with it.  This makes such a currency severely handicapped for general transaction use in an economy, and that in turn damages goods and service preference -- the ability to use it to exchange one good or service for another.  What's worse is that as the volume of transactions and the widespread acceptance rises so does the value of someone tampering with the block chain and as such the amount of time you must wait to be reasonably secure against that risk goes up rather than down.

I am newly aware of Bitcoin (1 week now ) and believe it has many appealing characteristics as a future currency. Although I don't agree with most of the pasted opposition, there was one point made (quoted above) that has me conflicted. For a crypto-currency to ever become successful in the normal operation of society, transactions must be conducted rather quickly, if not instantaneously. I'm finding it rather difficult to even obtain BTCs let alone imagine them one day being used in normal commerce with literally millions of global transactions occurring every second. I'm sure this has been discussed in detail many times on this forum, so someone please provide the prevailing wisdom to this problem.

[lukestokes]

Great thread. The big question I have is... when? When will the river card flip with the chips on the table? Schiff said last year things would collapse during the middle of this year. How long will people have to make a move? What will the final warning signs be?

My friends are starting to wake up as well. The Matrix is being pealed back. Just weeks ago, some of them thought their bank actually stored the money they deposited. Now they are asking me how to get into Bitcoin.

My company is trying to help in any way we can. Last week we (FoxyCart.com) launched support for a  Bitcoin payment gateway. I've also blogged about Bitcoin. I encourage others to do the same and share the post with your friends.

I do still have concerns about how easily the market will be manipulated. Prices going all over the place certainly will not help promote stable commerce... then again, if we're talking thousands of dollars per BTC and we're doing commerce with fractions of a BTC, it might be OK.

[slilley]

DirtyGold,

I suspect that the author of the quoted article hasn't actually used bitcoin personally.  While the confirmation delay is true, the initial transaction notification is near-instant like email (typically about 2 seconds).  For most small transactions this is good enough.  Especially for things like retail point-of-sale where you might have customers in line.  For buying larger or more expensive items there aren't usually people waiting in line and a 10 minute delay isn't a deal killer.  For depositing into OKpay, they wait for 6 confirmations so that's roughly an hour.  You wouldn't want to wait that long if you're waiting in line, but to make an online purchase I don't mind planning my life an hour ahead.

The single most powerful argument in favor of bitcoin isn't words, it's a demonstration.  Most people when they see it used, begin to "get it" immediately.  Why can't all money be this easy?  When I set new users up with a blockchain wallet, I zap them some pocket change as a demonstration.  If they have an android phone, I do this phone-to-phone so they see both the phone and the computer update, all within a couple of seconds.  If you already have a wallet address, post it and I'll send you some pocket change too.

The real reason it's hard to obtain bitcoin is that it's so superior that nobody really wants to take fiat for it.  At best, guaranteed fiat like cash or bank wire works, but inferior reversible forms like Paypal and credit cards are right out of there.  I also act as a broker and will sell people some of mine, but I'm not trying to cash out of bitcoin for fiat so I then go do a bitinstant transaction to refill as soon as possible.  As long as I do this quickly enough I'm not taking much risk of the market moving in price.  I charge a suitable commission to cover my cost and risk and I explain this to new users.  I'm also happy to show them how to fund through bitinstant, coinbase or other methods themselves if they prefer.  Of course, those times I need a little fiat in my pocket all I have to do is choose how much bitcoin to buy as a refill, if I buy less than I sold then I keep the fiat difference.  Right now I'm deriving a decent side income from this as a business, enough to pay for lunch out most days at least.  And remember, this is only in one small community.  There's a lot of room to grow the user base.

The growing transaction volume will, in time, present a significant challenge to the system.  With blocks only every 10 minutes and the blocksize limited, we will sooner or later run into problems keeping up.  The system is going to have to grow and evolve to meet the demands placed on it, but I'm confident that bitcoin has attracted some of the best minds on the planet to bring the innovation required.  If bitcoin ultimately fails, its deficiencies will be corrected in the next system until we have something that does succeed.  I know other crytocurrencies exist, but right now bitcoin has such a market lead that it's basically bitcoin's race to lose.  Unless there's a major problem with it, most of the money seeking a new virtual currency home will find its way into bitcoin because it's more widely distributed and mature than any of the alternatives.

[slilley]

Luke,

At the risk of being overly wordy in replying to my own thread, I would suggest that the answer to the question everyone wants to know "when".... is "soon".  That's about as precise as anyone can be.  Think about it, if you'd known about the banking system years ago and then saw a newspaper from March 2013 with the current headlines, you'd know that the collapse was imminent.  We've been boiled slowly and the normalcy bias is strong, but things have now taken a decidedly dangerous turn and these topics are beginning to filter into the mainstream consciousness.  You're seeing it yourself.

What will the final warning signs be?  That's easy, just open a browser tab and check the news.  It really requires very little to get from where we are now to outright instability.  Personally, I'd give it a matter of months, probably sometime this year, when the banks in the US close for the first time.  Of course, I've thought that for a while now and I've been surprised that the band aids and duct tape have held it together for this long.

In the sense of "when should I begin pulling money out of the bank and consider moving to a rural area", again that's an easy one to answer.  The best possible time was several years ago, when you could have sold your city real estate for a good sum.  The second best possible time is now.  Remember, the people in Cyprus didn't get any advance warning (although the warning signs were there to see for those who were paying attention).  I personally "panicked" about 10 years, although going broke after the dot-com boom was definitely a precipitating factor in moving "back home" to our family land.

[Alonzo Ewing]

Yesterday something interesting happened.  I heard from a business associate that they were now planning on cashing out a $50,000 CD that's paying virtually zero interest and putting all of it in bitcoin.  Now, if this was someone retired and that was their whole life savings I would discourage it as far too risky, but this is someone who can afford to put that kind of money at risk.  Keep in mind that this was someone who hadn't heard of bitcoin two weeks ago.  I have at least one local business in town buzzing where almost all of their employees are getting in.
 theft and bank failure, and (B) the rapid appreciation in price.

I've been speculating for over 15 years, and I lived through the Dot-com bubble.  The anecdote above is not reassuring, but rather, worrying.  That is the kind of thing that happens near tops.  The wild frenzy over the last week in which "elevator boys" give Joseph Kennedy investing advice says we're very close to a top, at least time-wise, if not price-wise.

[OpenYourEyes210]

Great post! I'm 24, and I try and get my friends to get in on bitcoin all the time, family also. So far no one has because they're "too broke". I know how that is, I personally sold 25 ounces of silver to buy my bitcoins... And that was really hard! But I know it will all be worth it down the line 

[buddhacoiner]

The awareness, understanding and adoption of bitcoin is on the rise.  As the community continues to increase in size bitcoin becomes further legitimized and thus its value will rise.  Further, all the nuances relating to initial 'difficulty' of adopting a bitcoin way of life will slowly be solved (more user friendly, or let's say easier-to-understand-for-the-layman, wallet systems, etc.)

The best thing bitcoin proponents can do at this point, as mentioned above, is to spread the word.  Friends, family and FACEBOOK!  I would like to see some large marketing company begin a massive social media campaign devoted to spreading the beauty that is bitcoin

[slilley]

Alonzo,

Thanks for that reminder, you have a point.  I lived through those "bubble" days not as a speculator, but as an employee with retirement funds in the stock market, only to see my financial future pretty much go up in smoke between losing jobs and the market plunge.  Indeed, mania is what a top looks like.  I did some long and hard thinking after reading your post to see if indeed your argument might be correct and this might be "irrational exuberance" and probably a market top.  The conclusion that I reached is that although there is indeed a mania taking hold, it's only the 0.1% of investors that have actually heard of bitcoin that are starting to become manic.  When this number climbs above 50% then I'll start to get worried.  For now I still think we have only just entered the second phase of adoption, which is when the initial more-or-less linear curve of early adopters starts to give way to an exponential curve as each person spreads the word and the number of adopters multiplies with each time interval.  This will, of course, give way to saturation as eventually most of those to whom bitcoin will mean anything have heard of it and either accepted it or rejected it.  But given the number of blank stares I still get from even the fairly-well-informed people I know, it's still early on in the game.

[itsunderstood]

[...]

The wild frenzy over the last week in which "elevator boys" give Joseph Kennedy investing advice says we're very close to a top, at least time-wise, if not price-wise.

Well, buying any of Joe's stock picks might not have been wise, but buying stock in his kids would have been a good investment, if you like horseracing.  

Seems like both precious metals, and Kennedys were taken off the market in 1963, so I guess that was the top.

[caujiahai]

This is exactly how I am seing this. Thanks for sharing!

[Jet Cash]

Why have you joined this forum
Please clear off and stop polluting it with your worthless necro bumps