What is the (future) value of bitcoin financial services? I'm not sure how to measure it, but there must be some ways to estimate it. For example, Austrians believe that business cycles are caused by current financial system. If true, then value of new financial system should include cost of busts/depressions/stagnations it's preventing. How much the dotcom crash did cost? How much the Great Depression did cost? And the following (and partly caused by it) WWII?
I don't think we need an in-depth analysis to show that the wealth creation due to bitcoin financial services will be dwarfed by the wealth represented by the monetary value of bitcoin. Let me try another route.
The bitcoin financial services are the arteries through which bitcoin monetary value flows. Yes, it takes capital - human and resources - to create these arteries. In the process of this creation, the value of the resulting financial services will -- if intelligently implemented -- exceed the value of the human and resources capital that went into their creation. IOW, the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. It is this difference that is the wealth created by the bitcoin financial services. This wealth will be earned and enjoyed by the people that create these services.
But all this is for naught if there is not a much greater pool of bitcoin, that will flow through these arteries.
You seem to assume that value must be if not equal, but at least close to costs. Which is not the case. If a multimillion jet cannot fly it's value may fall 100-fold, to the price of scrap metal. But we can recover original value by replacing a 10-cents fuse.
Our financial system and our whole economy is such non-flying jet. It's very inefficient and wasteful.
And Bitcoin is the 10-cents fuse that can fix the multimillion jet.
It can (partly, at least) fix our economy's inefficiency and thus increase it's total value. The total value of the whole world economy. And the value of bitcoin payment system should be measured by this increase, rather than by costs of creating it.
How can the value grow if amount of "tangible goods, services, resources, and other capital" is not increased? By more efficient allocation of the same resources. By decreasing waste of this resources. And by faster growth of these resources. If your capital can produce 6% instead of 3%, it's the same as having two capitals for the price of one.
This is the new wealth created by the bitcoin and the major part of this wealth will not be in the hands of early adopters, because worth of all resources is much bigger than amount of all money. Therefore the benefits of bitcoins will be enjoyed by the whole population, rather than by small circle of hodlers. That's exactly why people will switch to bitcoin: because it gives them some value. Every single person that'll switch to bitcoin, will do it because of an extra value that that bitcoin will give to her.
tl;dr; Bitcoin is 10-cents fuse that fixes multimillion jet. It is (mostly) new wealth given to all, rather than old wealth taken by few.
