none of these things are 100%, you can analyze a coin as much as you can based on its supply, the hype it has, do technical analysis and find the supports and resistances and trends, .... and a lot of things but in the end you will find yourself in a manipulated market since that is what altcoins are. and when manipulation comes in every other logic goes out.
eventually earning profit from an altcoin turns into knowing what can help its pump. for example when a random coin is listed on a big exchange it can go from 10,000 satoshi to 50,000 satoshi and back to 10,000 again just because it got hyped. and that is an easy 5x profit in a couple of days.
We are closed to the point that only magic can explain evolution of prices in crypto - lol. For this same reason investors must become magicians and only the best magicians become finally rich.