Derivatives and financial collapse. $1.4 quadrillion time bomb!

[g0rush]

Back in 2008, when backs posted huge losses from sour bets and repackaged mortgages we were on the brink of financial ruin. If allowed to fail, any of the big banks would have (probably) brought the global economy to a halt with a broad domino effect and a swift and long lasting depression may have followed. Instead of letting them fail we gave them the mother of all bailouts AND allowed them to get right back to stealing and gambling. hoards of lobbyists descended upon congress to argue against the banning of the practice of derivative trading, which was the cause of the problem in the first place. All this risk repackaging and minimizing is done under the table, it is hard to track any deals that get made due to the fact they can be done with just two parties and is heavily unregulated.


I highly doubt this system will crash anytime soon unless something big happens (china default, natural disaster)

If it does bitcoin and other digital currencies would emerge as a real commodity, much like gold and silver



What do you guys think?

[BitcoinBobbeh]

... If allowed to fail, any of the big banks would have (probably) brought the global economy to a halt ...

I don't accept that premise.

The global economy actually consists of people doing useful things. Shuffling paper around can facilitate useful work, but it's not indispensible. Humans are inventive and would soon find workarounds if the big banks failed. The world would keep turning.

This.

There is so much terrible imagery surrounding the Great Depression of the 1930s, but you know 80+% of America was still employed right? A few sour years for sure (like we already had) but I doubt the advancement of civilization would have been halted any.

[g0rush]

... If allowed to fail, any of the big banks would have (probably) brought the global economy to a halt ...

I don't accept that premise.

The global economy actually consists of people doing useful things. Shuffling paper around can facilitate useful work, but it's not indispensible. Humans are inventive and would soon find workarounds if the big banks failed. The world would keep turning.

This.

There is so much terrible imagery surrounding the Great Depression of the 1930s, but you know 80+% of America was still employed right? A few sour years for sure (like we already had) but I doubt the advancement of civilization would have been halted any.

You don understand how much of a disaster 20% unemployment is

look at Greece for example. The unemployment rate there is at 27% and social unrest is exploding. Those 27% arnt just ganna sit there and starve. They protest and demand, and it just a general downward spiral. Once you have a unemployment rate that high it is VERY DIFFICULT to get the gears grinding again because it requires you to spend money that isnt circulating.

If it werent for World War II the depression would have lasted a lot longer than it did

[cdog]

You don understand how much of a disaster 20% unemployment is

We are currently around 23%:



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadowstats.com

[Operatr]

... If allowed to fail, any of the big banks would have (probably) brought the global economy to a halt ...

I don't accept that premise.

The global economy actually consists of people doing useful things. Shuffling paper around can facilitate useful work, but it's not indispensible. Humans are inventive and would soon find workarounds if the big banks failed. The world would keep turning.

This.

There is so much terrible imagery surrounding the Great Depression of the 1930s, but you know 80+% of America was still employed right? A few sour years for sure (like we already had) but I doubt the advancement of civilization would have been halted any.

Bitcoin is a direct result of our society adapting itself out of necessity. Our economy is fundamentally broken and controlled by a greedy, fascist few. This is us building our own economy because it has already failed so many of us where fiat has nothing left to offer. There are no jobs (useful things for people to do), the one that have jobs don't make enough to outrun inflation or rising commodity prices, and the entire world is drowning in debt, which fractional reserve banking creates perpetually forever. There is no incentive to keep participating, but every incentive build something new.

Bitcoin is creating jobs in a self governing voluntary free market. It is the only thing economically that is growing by leaps and bounds while the banking system begins to burn down.

The transition though is going to be messy, but we will find a way.

[knightcoin]

Back in 2008, when backs posted huge losses from sour bets and repackaged mortgages we were on the brink of financial ruin. If allowed to fail, any of the big banks would have (probably) brought the global economy to a halt with a broad domino effect and a swift and long lasting depression may have followed. Instead of letting them fail we gave them the mother of all bailouts AND allowed them to get right back to stealing and gambling. hoards of lobbyists descended upon congress to argue against the banning of the practice of derivative trading, which was the cause of the problem in the first place. All this risk repackaging and minimizing is done under the table, it is hard to track any deals that get made due to the fact they can be done with just two parties and is heavily unregulated.


I highly doubt this system will crash anytime soon unless something big happens (china default, natural disaster)

If it does bitcoin and other digital currencies would emerge as a real commodity, much like gold and silver



What do you guys think?

Interresting, are you telling that Black–Scholes model still there ?



http://www.theguardian.com/science/2012/feb/12/black-scholes-equation-credit-crunch

[g0rush]

Back in 2008, when backs posted huge losses from sour bets and repackaged mortgages we were on the brink of financial ruin. If allowed to fail, any of the big banks would have (probably) brought the global economy to a halt with a broad domino effect and a swift and long lasting depression may have followed. Instead of letting them fail we gave them the mother of all bailouts AND allowed them to get right back to stealing and gambling. hoards of lobbyists descended upon congress to argue against the banning of the practice of derivative trading, which was the cause of the problem in the first place. All this risk repackaging and minimizing is done under the table, it is hard to track any deals that get made due to the fact they can be done with just two parties and is heavily unregulated.


I highly doubt this system will crash anytime soon unless something big happens (china default, natural disaster)

If it does bitcoin and other digital currencies would emerge as a real commodity, much like gold and silver



What do you guys think?

Interresting, are you telling that Black–Scholes model still there ?

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Observer/Columnist/Columnists/2012/2/9/1328804628425/PAKISTAN-STOCKS-YEAR-008.jpg

http://www.theguardian.com/science/2012/feb/12/black-scholes-equation-credit-crunch

yes indeed

[Dr Bloggood]

There is an absolute economic desaster heading our way. However, the world will keep turning, and it will hopefully be a start for orderly conditions and backed currencies again.

For people who hold precious metals and maybe BTC too, it's not called "disaster" though, it's called "opportunity"...

[Dr Bloggood]

You don understand how much of a disaster 20% unemployment is

We are currently around 23%:



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadowstats.com

+1

Remember, the official numbers are all faked, faked, faked!

[knightcoin]

Gamble... if you win you cash in (as a bonus) if you lose it's tax payer problem ...  and where is the global public ledger to do a reality check

anyway just to remind us ...

[aminorex]

Bitcoin was created to overcome the despair that Salman Rushdie might never marry again.

[knightcoin]

Bitcoin was created to overcome the despair that Salman Rushdie might never marry again.

LOL..

unfortunately the btc block cant be change 
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Genesis_block

the hex message should be

Code:

53 61 6c 6d 61 6e 20 52 75 73 68 64 69 65 20 6d 69 67 68 74 20 6e 65 76 65 72 20 6d 61 72 72 79 20 61 67 61 69 6e

[Revolution]

... If allowed to fail, any of the big banks would have (probably) brought the global economy to a halt ...

I don't accept that premise.

The global economy actually consists of people doing useful things. Shuffling paper around can facilitate useful work, but it's not indispensible. Humans are inventive and would soon find workarounds if the big banks failed. The world would keep turning.

Well of course, the world can't crash, I mean even if it did it would restart its own economy, may it be carrots and donkeys rather than USD.

[Majormax]

... If allowed to fail, any of the big banks would have (probably) brought the global economy to a halt ...

I don't accept that premise.

The global economy actually consists of people doing useful things. Shuffling paper around can facilitate useful work, but it's not indispensible. Humans are inventive and would soon find workarounds if the big banks failed. The world would keep turning.

Well of course, the world can't crash, I mean even if it did it would restart its own economy, may it be carrots and donkeys rather than USD.

Yes... Money is only paper, debt. Tangibles remain. Of course insolvent financial entities should be allowed to collapse, whatever their size.
(schemes to insure small deposits are another matter)

Many speculative booms of the past, in which huge amounts of 'money' were lost, created ground-breaking technology or infrastructure which remained for good and posterity (Railways, Radio, Internet etc..)

The real purpose of 'Investment' vehicles like the stockmarket is to recycle idle funds (savings) into risk projects. A lot of the money is destroyed, but useful things are created.