Tom Lee lowered his prediction to $15k hehehe

[markj113]

McAfee lowered his forecast to one testicle

[gentlemand]

Cor blimey. What's it going to take to get him to give up? At this point he's setting on fire whatever it was caused him to be invited on all these shows to spout off. Better to blow his brains out on air. That would be the definitive statement the world is looking for right now.

[WinslowIII]

Tom Lee - the Homer Simpson of crypto price analysts. At least Mcafee and Draper have the sense to put their forecasts out a few years to coincide with the next halving. F'g idiot.

[Wind_FURY]

 driver was bitcoin's "break-even" point, the level at which mining costs match the trading price. That level is down to $7,000 from an earlier estimate of $8,000 for the S9 mining machine by Bitmain, according to Fundstrat's data science team. Based on that, Lee estimates that fair value for bitcoin would be roughly 2.2 times the new $7,000 break-even price.

Bitcoin is trading well below that, near $5,539 on Friday, according to data from CoinDesk. This week, the majority of major cryptocurrencies saw double-digit downward swings, and bitcoin hit its lowest level of the year.

But Lee is betting on a recovery. He told clients in a note Friday that even in the depths of a previous bitcoin bear market between 2013 and 2015, it "never sustained a move below breakeven.

Quoted from OP's post.

But is Tom Lee's opinion on "miners creating a price floor based on break even mining costs" correct? I believe it is the market that makes the price, not the miners. What the miners do is to merely follow it.

McAfee lowered his forecast to one testicle

Hahahaha.

[figmentofmyass]

But is Tom Lee's opinion on "miners creating a price floor based on break even mining costs" correct? I believe it is the market that makes the price, not the miners. What the miners do is to merely follow it.

yep, franky caters to that theory as well. it sure seems like it's being disproven now. if price drops enough to force miners to shut down, then hash rate will drop, difficulty will drop, and it'll become cheaper to mine. that's what seems to be happening now---7.39% drop in difficulty last go round and on track to drop next adjustment as well.

i haven't seen a freefall like this in a long time. good luck to the miners......

[Wind_FURY]

But is Tom Lee's opinion on "miners creating a price floor based on break even mining costs" correct? I believe it is the market that makes the price, not the miners. What the miners do is to merely follow it.

yep, franky caters to that theory as well. it sure seems like it's being disproven now. if price drops enough to force miners to shut down, then hash rate will drop, difficulty will drop, and it'll become cheaper to mine. that's what seems to be happening now---7.39% drop in difficulty last go round and on track to drop next adjustment as well.

i haven't seen a freefall like this in a long time. good luck to the miners......

But that "drop" was caused by Roger Ver and Jihan Wu's mining pools redirecting some hashing power to Bitcoin Cash ABC.

I believe the real test to that "theory" would be in the next halving, if Bitcoin's price remains below the "break-even cost".

[figmentofmyass]

But is Tom Lee's opinion on "miners creating a price floor based on break even mining costs" correct? I believe it is the market that makes the price, not the miners. What the miners do is to merely follow it.

yep, franky caters to that theory as well. it sure seems like it's being disproven now. if price drops enough to force miners to shut down, then hash rate will drop, difficulty will drop, and it'll become cheaper to mine. that's what seems to be happening now---7.39% drop in difficulty last go round and on track to drop next adjustment as well.

i haven't seen a freefall like this in a long time. good luck to the miners......

But that "drop" was caused by Roger Ver and Jihan Wu's mining pools redirecting some hashing power to Bitcoin Cash ABC.

I believe the real test to that "theory" would be in the next halving, if Bitcoin's price remains below the "break-even cost".

why so? that seems like an arbitrary measure. can't difficulty just adjust downwards?

all we know is that falling price is bad for miners' margins, and on a long enough timeline, unprofitable miners who are rational will shut down. i remember hearing some ugly stories about miners liquidating in 2014. i assume things are no different this time around.

[Wind_FURY]

But is Tom Lee's opinion on "miners creating a price floor based on break even mining costs" correct? I believe it is the market that makes the price, not the miners. What the miners do is to merely follow it.

yep, franky caters to that theory as well. it sure seems like it's being disproven now. if price drops enough to force miners to shut down, then hash rate will drop, difficulty will drop, and it'll become cheaper to mine. that's what seems to be happening now---7.39% drop in difficulty last go round and on track to drop next adjustment as well.

i haven't seen a freefall like this in a long time. good luck to the miners......

But that "drop" was caused by Roger Ver and Jihan Wu's mining pools redirecting some hashing power to Bitcoin Cash ABC.

I believe the real test to that "theory" would be in the next halving, if Bitcoin's price remains below the "break-even cost".

why so? that seems like an arbitrary measure. can't difficulty just adjust downwards?

It can, but in this situation, Roger Ver and Jihan Wu have redirected hashing power to Bitcoin Cash ABC. But you are right, and I get your standpoint.

all we know is that falling price is bad for miners' margins, and on a long enough timeline, unprofitable miners who are rational will shut down. i remember hearing some ugly stories about miners liquidating in 2014. i assume things are no different this time around.

On the next halving on 2020 or the next to that, if the price is not above the "break-even mining cost", we might witness "some faction" in the community debate for an increase in inflation but without increasing the 21 million cap. That's my theory.

[bbc.reporter]

No predictions and all hope of $15k by December 31 might already have gone away from our favorite bitcoin bull, Tom Lee. He is saying that he likes Ethereum and Ripple, however.

Did he sell some of his funds' bitcoins to hold Ethereum and Ripple? Maybe he did hehehe.



Diehard Bitcoin bull Tom Lee, the head of research at New York-based Fundstrat Global Advisors, recently sat down with CoinTelegraph to provide his insights into the recent Bitcoin (BTC) crash. Although Lee is often lambasted for his overly bullish calls, such as his forecast for BTC to eclipse $15,000, the Fundstrat representative staved away from issuing price predictions in this interview.

Although Lee went on to note that “some crypto projects are probably hopeless,” the Fundstrat in-house crypto savant explained that notable players, like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, likely have the highest chance of surviving, especially in stormy market conditions.

Read in full https://ethereumworldnews.com/tom-lee-bitcoin-xrp-ether-staying-power-2019/

[Youghoor]

He is not relevant anymore, i still remember those times when every clown was saying "bitcoin will go to $xxx" and people was believing on that.

Nowadays, people are not stupid anymore, they do not believe on all those accusations anymore, they just buy or sell, and nothing more.

to be honest i wouldn't have changed my prediction if i were him. mainly because the current drop is not because of logical reasons such as previous times (bubble burst, correction, ...) it is purely FUD based and panic of BCash fork which means it is not natural so if he thought price is going to be $25k then since nothing has changed, his prediction shouldn't have changed either. although it is still pretty weird that he made that prediction but that is another discussion.

[JohnBitCo]

McAfee lowered his forecast to one testicle

Well no one would have thought that in December bitcoin price will only be 4000$. Everyone was expecting a bull run in crypto currencies but I think no one is showing any interest in the investment in digital currencies and hence none of these high predication can be fulfilled this year.

[Siren]

Lowering his first prediction proves that he is not really tp be trusted why not just stick to the old value he predict and let the market tells what is the accurat value at the end year,anyway these are only pedictions and nothing to get seriously.
This action will only lure those people use to believe him to stay away from preditions and instead wait for the actual price in the end of december

I myself dont really buy this kind of stories because i am surely believe nothings happening both ways