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Author Topic: reverse market how to tell  (Read 147 times)
forestx (OP)
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January 03, 2021, 06:06:37 PM
 #1

We are getting all time highs at the moment and while as I write this BTC is retracting from its massive run yesterday sentiment seems positive.
But what are the signs we should watch out for that we going back into full reversal or bear market.
What TA should we see or other factors be it volume or BTC.D
The market will go up and down but how do we know when to go back into USDT or other stable coins and wait to buy back in
jackg
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January 03, 2021, 06:28:17 PM
 #2

We don't know when to do this and this is the problem with trading speculative assets. You can make a decent return by deciding WHEN you want to pull out price wise or coin wise - last bull run i pulled some when we were half down from the ath (was still a decent gain).

Realistically i think if bitcoin starts to fall and the dominance follows suit (falls to 60% or something) its probably a good idea to sell. I'm not sure if anyone's checked but a little after bitcoin reaches a peak (say 3 days) if trading sideways, you might make more converting to alts and waiting for the sideways continuation to be over.
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January 03, 2021, 06:51:01 PM
 #3

We don't know when to do this and this is the problem with trading speculative assets. You can make a decent return by deciding WHEN you want to pull out price wise or coin wise - last bull run i pulled some when we were half down from the ath (was still a decent gain).

Realistically i think if bitcoin starts to fall and the dominance follows suit (falls to 60% or something) its probably a good idea to sell. I'm not sure if anyone's checked but a little after bitcoin reaches a peak (say 3 days) if trading sideways, you might make more converting to alts and waiting for the sideways continuation to be over.

I did the same in 2017 back when I was still trading. I came into the market thinking 2x gains are something we all dream of so naturally, being a trader used to selling at 10% gains I was surprised by Bitcoin and its 100% weekly moves.

I kept looking for a resistance line, measuring candles and so on and every time I'd sell and it would go up the next day, so I'd buy, hold for a day and sell again over and over again from 5 to 16 thousand when I finally gave up thinking it could not be real.

We'll probably have a number of corrections in this bull market, like we had in the last one. If we were to fall today back to 29000 it would be such a correction and we'd probably continue to go up from there towards 40000.
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January 03, 2021, 08:25:06 PM
 #4

We are getting all time highs at the moment and while as I write this BTC is retracting from its massive run yesterday sentiment seems positive.
But what are the signs we should watch out for that we going back into full reversal or bear market.

Won't happen. Not for a long time. Late 2021, maybe.

People are obviously still traumatized from the 2018/2020 bear runs. They're so scared of a bear market. Reminds me of how I felt in 2016 and early 2017. At that time I was still licking my wounds and shaking off bearish sentiment from the brutal 2014-2015 bear market.

I lost a bunch of BTC back then being skeptical of another BTC bubble and worrying about preserving USD capital. Big mistake.

Don't make that mistake. The bubble is just beginning. Any "crash" from here is a dip buy opportunity. If you're thinking about panic selling spot coins, you've got weak hands.

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January 03, 2021, 08:57:20 PM
 #5

No sign yet.
Don't make that mistake. The bubble is just beginning. Any "crash" from here is a dip buy opportunity. If you're thinking about panic selling spot coins, you've got weak hands.
Follow the advice. This is right that if it comes to the dip, your only action is buy. You don't panic, you don't have to be emotional. Just play the game and keep in the accumulation if it dips. There are still FUDs this time just as the past years but they're not encouraging to listen anymore and you don't have to worry about them.

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January 03, 2021, 09:03:07 PM
 #6


You really can't tell when its gonna go down that you need to move to stablecoin. I thought the price will really go down yesterday but now it's up to 33K still. Your chart may say it's been on top for weeks but eventually, continue to rise up.

Its good to be on the guard at all times else you will commit same mistake over again for holding BTC while the bears are here.

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forestx (OP)
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January 03, 2021, 10:26:30 PM
 #7

We are getting all time highs at the moment and while as I write this BTC is retracting from its massive run yesterday sentiment seems positive.
But what are the signs we should watch out for that we going back into full reversal or bear market.

Won't happen. Not for a long time. Late 2021, maybe.

People are obviously still traumatized from the 2018/2020 bear runs. They're so scared of a bear market. Reminds me of how I felt in 2016 and early 2017. At that time I was still licking my wounds and shaking off bearish sentiment from the brutal 2014-2015 bear market.

I lost a bunch of BTC back then being skeptical of another BTC bubble and worrying about preserving USD capital. Big mistake.

Don't make that mistake. The bubble is just beginning. Any "crash" from here is a dip buy opportunity. If you're thinking about panic selling spot coins, you've got weak hands.

Thats what I am hoping on:
I got in in 2017 at 5K and have held all this time buying more over the years.
However I was very conservative so unless BTC does something crazy I wont make life changing money this year.
I have looked at btc history and four year cycles and my plan/hope is for btc to rise through the year sell, when we enter a bear market and buy back again. I know calling the top and bottom is near impossible but thats the plan
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January 03, 2021, 10:35:38 PM
 #8

We are getting all time highs at the moment and while as I write this BTC is retracting from its massive run yesterday sentiment seems positive.
But what are the signs we should watch out for that we going back into full reversal or bear market.
What TA should we see or other factors be it volume or BTC.D
The market will go up and down but how do we know when to go back into USDT or other stable coins and wait to buy back in
Well, most of the holders are thinking the same as you. When is the perfect time to sell or buy, where bitcoin headed, and until when the bitcoin price will stop climbing up? All of these questions have remained of their mine and the same answers they got, the price of bitcoin is unpredictable and no one knows when it will fluctuate. Technical analysis will perhaps we may apply on this, but it does not give a guarantee of accuracy in having result, it is better for you to hold and have a desired amount of profit, once you are there you can quickly cut of it and be contented.









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jackg
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January 03, 2021, 11:13:34 PM
 #9

Won't happen. Not for a long time. Late 2021, maybe.

People are obviously still traumatized from the 2018/2020 bear runs. They're so scared of a bear market. Reminds me of how I felt in 2016 and early 2017. At that time I was still licking my wounds and shaking off bearish sentiment from the brutal 2014-2015 bear market.

I lost a bunch of BTC back then being skeptical of another BTC bubble and worrying about preserving USD capital. Big mistake.

Don't make that mistake. The bubble is just beginning. Any "crash" from here is a dip buy opportunity. If you're thinking about panic selling spot coins, you've got weak hands.

I'm hunting for a red month... I was doing some analysis a while back and I think the last bull market saw 9 green candles (this is anywhere between 8 or 10 months due to the timing of the close I used). So far we're on 3 successive green closures, if it lasts a similar time to last then that puts us at May-August if a red doesn't come around (although there's suggestions bull times get longer and longer as bitcoin ages - as bitcoin ages it fundamentally becomes more bullish as it remains secure and maintains its reputation).

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January 04, 2021, 10:11:57 AM
 #10

When you notice the beginning of the upstream of atcoin, it is a good indicator of corrections that may occur in the market.
The market is likely to have a lot of correction, as a lot of liquidity has flowed and everyone is positive about the price, which means that it is the right time to exit and achieve profits, which means losing the liquidity that leads to that rise
Gozie51
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January 05, 2021, 11:45:51 AM
 #11


What TA should we see or other factors be it volume or BTC.D
The market will go up and down but how do we know when to go back into USDT or other stable coins and wait to buy back in

It is going to be difficult for such prediction. Now that the price has started dropping, is going to be a difficult time because even price drop is fud already as others will start to dump for fear of losing much and until a stage when investors will start jumping into the market again. It is wise not to invest with your eyes closed, you need more care now in the market.
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January 05, 2021, 10:15:23 PM
 #12

We are getting all time highs at the moment and while as I write this BTC is retracting from its massive run yesterday sentiment seems positive.
But what are the signs we should watch out for that we going back into full reversal or bear market.
What TA should we see or other factors be it volume or BTC.D
The market will go up and down but how do we know when to go back into USDT or other stable coins and wait to buy back in

We're in a highly speculative market, so you don't expect that anyone would give you a definite answer. But, it's you yourself could help you identify which market trend Btc might take, by constantly checking on the chart and market movements.
I can't see any relevant signs If the market goes into a bear market, but only when the price moves in a downward spiral or when Btc slowly or worse suddenly crash without a single step to recover.
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January 05, 2021, 10:49:51 PM
 #13

No need to worry about market reversal any time soon. There could be many hundreds of percent appreciation before any sort of serious market reversal. Bull market is in early stages. It's only just ramping up.
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