Question about moon3d.io

[Nadziratel]

Hey guys, I've played a bit on Moon3D and I have some questions about the house edge and advertised odds.

The house edge of Moon3D is advertised as 1.5%, which means the median bust should be 1.985x (1.975x accounting for the social multiplier).

Let's examine bustabit, which has an advertised house edge of 1% and an expected median of 1.98x.

Median over last 1000 games: 1.98x (expected)
Median over last 2000 games: 1.93x (below expected)
Median over last 5000 games: 1.96x (below expected)
Median over last 10000 games: 1.96x (below expected)
Median over last 20000 games: 1.97x (below expected)
Median over last 40000 games: 1.98x (expected)
Median over last 100000 games: 1.98x (expected)

As you can see, above ~40,000 games or so, the median converges towards the expected median of 1.98x. We can presume that 40,000 is a fair number of games to backtest in order to view the expected median and eliminate variance. Obviously, the more you backtest, the more variance is eliminated, and the true median will approach the expected median asymptotically. If, beyond 100,000 games, the expected median is not the same as the true median, it's either that the odds are being advertised incorrectly, or that a 1 in several trillion event is unfolding before our eyes. Usually the former.

Now on Moon3D:

Expected median: 1.975x

Median over last 100,000 games: 1.94x

This suggests that the actual house edge is over 3% higher than what is advertised. To the Moon3D team, I'm just wondering why there's such a large discrepancy... hopefully someone can enlighten me. Thanks!

PS. Also there's the fact that bustabit allows for the median to be checked in the chat but as far as I can tell this feature is not available on Moon3D, and you need to download and run the code to do the same.

I never played with moon3d. And want to use and play. But I have really serious question. Firstly can I played in Moon3d how completely anonym? I don't want to send any docs or pass KYC. Can anyone help me?

[StackGambler]

Thanks for the reply!

So, you're saying that if one makes use of the referral bonus and the round bonus, they can overcome the house edge, but if they don't, the house edge can be up to 3%. The maximum house edge is 3% but the edge on your site is advertised as 1.5%. On EtherCrash, where the maximum house edge is 1% but the edge can be lowered due to the bonus, the edge is advertised as "less than 1%". I suggest you change the edge on your site to "less than 3%" instead of "1.5%", because the latter is very misleading (since it assumes all players refer themselves to an alternate account and also make use of the round bonus, which isn't feasible).

I'm still interested in seeing the house edge updated, or at the very minimum seeing more transparent information on the site. What you currently have up (https://gyazo.com/82b8d245075b7bfbdd22b02e555ef11b) is very misleading.

[kxu1005]

Sorry answered elsewhere (should've replied faster here, apologies!), providing some data points: https://i.imgur.com/ioZkFZa.png

[StackGambler]

Sorry answered elsewhere (should've replied faster here, apologies!), providing some data points: https://i.imgur.com/ioZkFZa.png

"If you cashout at 2x with a 10% bonus", ie. if you make an obscenely small bet and there also happens to be a whale playing in the same round, and if you cashout after him, you made 0.1 mETH. Big players are the ones getting scammed. Thanks for the calculation you did; I'll do a similar one for each and every one of my rounds to prove how you scammed me with the fake house edge. Probably next week, lot on my plate at the moment.