how likely is to correctly reorder 24 words seed !

[fedemining]

https://www.reddit.com/r/ledgerwallet/comments/c4mfwg/lost_30_btc/
this guy had 30 BTC stolen from his cold storage! he says he had his private key saved into his email draft with the seed written in casual order!
there should be 24!=6.204484e+23 possible combinations for those words!
how likely is that the hacker succeed in put the words in the correct order and steal the funds?

[gentlemand]

how likely is that the hacker succeed in put the words in the correct order and steal the funds?

Very, very, very unlikely. You could input all the words on a fully infected computer and as long as they're not in the correct order it would be impossible to guess the right one. Indeed that's how you restore a Trezor one. There are just too many combinations for it to be a realistic possibility.

As ever there'll be some slackness on their part that they won't be alluding to.

[DdmrDdmr]

<...>

I’ve just glimpsed through the whole Reddit thread, and it seems that the person in question:

-   Did let others in his circle know he had BTCs.
-   The ledger was pin password protected.
-   There were two copies of his 24 word seed:
        - One hidden somewhere, on paper, with the words in order.
        - Another in an email draft, with allegedly 3 words jumbled, but the rest in the same order.

So it is feasible that:
-   Someone acceded the 24 word seed hidden at his home (words in the right order), since people were likely aware that he had it somewhere there.
-   Someone acceded the 24 word seed in his email draft, and since he only altered the position of a few words, perhaps he just swapped the first for the last (really swapping two words, not three). That would be the first option one would try, aside from reversing all words. If only 2 or 3 words were switched, the number of combinations to try is drastically reduced.

[hatshepsut93]

how likely is that the hacker succeed in put the words in the correct order and steal the funds?

Very, very, very unlikely. You could input all the words on a fully infected computer and as long as they're not in the correct order it would be impossible to guess the right one. Indeed that's how you restore a Trezor one. There are just too many combinations for it to be a realistic possibility.

As ever there'll be some slackness on their part that they won't be alluding to.

It's something like ~2^70, can be feasible to crack for someone with deep pockets, but not in this scenario when you don't know how big the payout is. However, this is assuming a good random permutation - if it was a human-generated and not full permutation, which is most likely the case - i.e. the OP said they swapped the last and the first words, and some other words, then the task becomes very doable.

This story is really sad, it shows us that humans are very prone to errors, and that Bitcoin severely punishes people for their errors - no matter how little or many coins you have, one mistake is enough to lose them forever.

[Red-Apple]

it simply depends on how the 24 words are jumbled. people sometimes think they have increased the security but they really didn't. for example the person in that Reddit post has probably changed the first word with the last one only (as one of his comments mentions this) and thought it is now safe. whereas it only takes less than a second to brute force that.

the thing is, if you want to store your seed somewhere, you should NOT try to reinvent the wheel for "encryption" by using one of the basic encryption techniques that became obsolete about 100 years ago. instead use a modern strong encryption technique like AES256.

[tweetbit]

<...>

I take this one as the closest answer and the possible scenario that occurs on the missing bitcoins. I’m saddened that one of the two possibilities is pointing a finger to someone dear to him that does the back job. I hope it won’t happen to me in real or anyone else. It’s a betrayal beyond money can compensate.

Temptation of money is as greedy and as unstoppable as the earth circle, it won’t end as long as we let our world open. Trust no one is the first rule.

[Potato Chips]

Someone acceded the 24 word seed in his email draft, and since he only altered the position of a few words, perhaps he just swapped the first for the last (really swapping two words, not three). That would be the first option one would try, aside from reversing all words. If only 2 or 3 words were switched, the number of combinations to try is drastically reduced.

Seconded since what is the use of the digital backup if they would still rely on their paper backup for the word order. Reddit op probably had a pattern in their mind which should not be super complicated as it should be easy to remember.

[bitmover]

I’ve just glimpsed through the whole Reddit thread, and it seems that the person in question:

-   Did let others in his circle know he had BTCs.
-   The ledger was pin password protected.
-   There were two copies of his 24 word seed:
        - One hidden somewhere, on paper, with the words in order.
        - Another in an email draft, with allegedly 3 words jumbled, but the rest in the same order.

So it is feasible that:
-   Someone acceded the 24 word seed hidden at his home (words in the right order), since people were likely aware that he had it somewhere there.
-   Someone acceded the 24 word seed in his email draft, and since he only altered the position of a few words, perhaps he just swapped the first for the last (really swapping two words, not three). That would be the first option one would try, aside from reversing all words. If only 2 or 3 words were switched, the number of combinations to try is drastically reduced.

Even using a hardware wallet you must still be worried about your seed safety.

This is a serious problem and often neglected in my opinion. It's very important to hide it somewhere and a back up, where nobody could access it but you and a trusted family member (in case you die, in my situation it's important)

Inserting the seed in your Gmail is very crazy .... Even changing a few words

[jseverson]

-   Someone acceded the 24 word seed in his email draft, and since he only altered the position of a few words, perhaps he just swapped the first for the last (really swapping two words, not three). That would be the first option one would try, aside from reversing all words. If only 2 or 3 words were switched, the number of combinations to try is drastically reduced.

This seems like the most likely scenario considering he apparently put it in an outlook email and this happened a few months prior:

https://www.wired.com/story/microsoft-email-hack-outlook-hotmail-customer-support/

The gap in time between the email hack and the movement of funds may be explained by the hacker trying to brute force the proper order of words. Either way, he broke the rule of not keeping a copy of his seed online, and he sadly paid a lot for it. I hope people out there who still do this despite all the warnings can learn from his mistake.

[Kakmakr]

It can also be that the generation of the seed was compromised in some way, but I have never heard of that happening before. Yes, people create paper wallets on Malware infected computers and then hackers gets hold of the Private key, but hardware wallet seed generation happens on the device. 

Did he at some stage "restore" the seed for some reason, because that could also create a opportunity for someone to hijack that process? The most likely explanation is that someone close to him, got hold of his "seed". <This is why I never store any Private keys or Seed at my house.> 

[hatshepsut93]

It can also be that the generation of the seed was compromised in some way, but I have never heard of that happening before. Yes, people create paper wallets on Malware infected computers and then hackers gets hold of the Private key, but hardware wallet seed generation happens on the device. 

Did he at some stage "restore" the seed for some reason, because that could also create a opportunity for someone to hijack that process? The most likely explanation is that someone close to him, got hold of his "seed". <This is why I never store any Private keys or Seed at my house.> 

He stored his seed in his email as an unsent draft and he switched the places of some words, but most likely not enough to protect the seed. This is the most likely explanation - his email got hacked, and hackers found this seed and brute-forced the original seed from it.

But he also talks how he stored his seed on paper hidden at his place, and that the coins disappeared while he wasn't in the country, so it's another possibility that burglars got his key from that paper seed, but I think it's less likely, cause burglars generally leave traces and take valuables with them.