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Author Topic: easier to maintain a bullish or bearish attitude?  (Read 260 times)
alexyong342 (OP)
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June 04, 2019, 04:45:27 PM
 #1

Take a look at a heat map of the cryptocurrency markets, and it’s easy to get bullish. The performance returns between the 15th December 2018 to the 23rd April 2019 look impressive:

Bitcoin is up 70%,

Ethereum 102%,

EOS 171%,

ADA 161%,

Litecoin 214%,

Bitcoin Cash 275%, and

Binance coin up 400%.

Google “crypto news” and recently, especially after the up moves of April 2nd, the format is the same, with the headlines focusing on price gains, the opinions of crypto celebrities, or the launch or emergence of new blockchain technology.

Using a log scale gives the appearance the 2018 84% drop is a typical down move in an uptrend, because, in percentage terms, the 2018 price drop matched the 2013 to 2015 move down. It’s easy to persuade the unwary, using technical analysis,

If you try this on Ethereum or any cryptocurrency that had significant moves down from their all-time highs, you’ll see the same thing. It’s possible to make an 80-95% price drop seem like it’s easy to recover from. It’s not.

Why?

https://www.altcoinsidekick.com/blog/disruptive-force
avikz
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June 04, 2019, 05:16:15 PM
 #2

Technical analysis is a method to predict consumer emotion in a regulated market where manipulation doesn't really happen! However, in crypto market it is not possible to capture the same emotion through TA because the market is highly manipulated. So I personally don't take a call based kn TA. It's completely situational and intuitive, no matter what the TA says!

It's better to not look at this TA garbage while whales are making millions from just simple manipulation.

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June 04, 2019, 05:34:27 PM
 #3

Take a look at a heat map of the cryptocurrency markets, and it’s easy to get bullish. The performance returns between the 15th December 2018 to the 23rd April 2019 look impressive:

Bitcoin is up 70%,

Ethereum 102%,

EOS 171%,

ADA 161%,

Litecoin 214%,

Bitcoin Cash 275%, and

Binance coin up 400%.

Google “crypto news” and recently, especially after the up moves of April 2nd, the format is the same, with the headlines focusing on price gains, the opinions of crypto celebrities, or the launch or emergence of new blockchain technology.

Using a log scale gives the appearance the 2018 84% drop is a typical down move in an uptrend, because, in percentage terms, the 2018 price drop matched the 2013 to 2015 move down. It’s easy to persuade the unwary, using technical analysis,

If you try this on Ethereum or any cryptocurrency that had significant moves down from their all-time highs, you’ll see the same thing. It’s possible to make an 80-95% price drop seem like it’s easy to recover from. It’s not.

Why?

https://www.altcoinsidekick.com/blog/disruptive-force


When we look at USD, prices seem to have risen. But many people like me are aiming to increase the amount of BTC, rather than USD. For this reason, we think that the real bull will come up with BTC based evaluations.
xvids
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June 04, 2019, 05:43:08 PM
 #4

Technical analysis is a method to predict consumer emotion in a regulated market where manipulation doesn't really happen! However, in crypto market it is not possible to capture the same emotion through TA because the market is highly manipulated. So I personally don't take a call based kn TA. It's completely situational and intuitive, no matter what the TA says!

It's better to not look at this TA garbage while whales are making millions from just simple manipulation.
I agree TA don't really have much effect on the community right now.
We could all agree to it most of them are just  telling price without a proper explanation on why would the price reach their prediction.
And besides anyone has been doing it for a long time now but only few gets to be famous it is so easy to  call yourself a TA,
Since most of them are just giving out their opinion or shilling their crypto.

Daha19
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June 04, 2019, 06:40:20 PM
 #5

big capital will not have problems supporting both scenarios, so I think it’s worth looking at the news background

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June 04, 2019, 06:47:51 PM
 #6

I don't think TA is even a great tool to gauge cryptomarket's movements. It will work on highly regulated markets like the stocks and derivatives market, but for a realm where almost everything is at constant chaos and disarray, TA lroves to be somewhat useless to get a hint of the greater picture. The longer I stay watching the markets, the further I'm convinced that price rises and drops are entirely cyclical and TA does not influence any of it, nor can't predict it even though we already know that it comes and it goes.

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June 04, 2019, 07:00:18 PM
Merited by pooya87 (1)
 #7

But these heat maps, these trend markers, Google search intensity and keyword mention, they're really just self-fulfilling prophecies aren't they? And they can be misleading, especially when you discover/realise that a lot of what's trending today isn't original and isn't a fresh trend. Take a look at the Press section, and extract the themes. They're old hat. Cyclical. Fresh perspectives perhaps, but nothing mind blowing.

Never mind themes. $1 predictions. Reddit time traveller. Hackers. Kidnappers. They're in the news because it's their turn on the wheel.

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June 04, 2019, 07:11:59 PM
 #8

I think the 18 + months of experiencing a bear market shows that bear markets are much more longer compared to bullish markets which only happens to a couple of weeks or months. I cannot relate them to news found online since its pretty similar to the situation on which the market is in the only difference is most news coming out from it are related to the condition of the market which most of it doesn't really affect the market movements afterwards.
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June 04, 2019, 07:39:34 PM
 #9

I think some of the opinions of people here are not right about TA, in my opinion TA is still quite useful if TA is right and is done by professional people. So far in my opinion TA weakness is only with the pope, where the pope manipulates the market and at that time all analysis becomes chaotic and useless.
But when viewed from the market there are now many popes who manipulate, whether or not TA can still be used on the bitcoin market or not. But if TA is used in the fiat market in my opinion it is still very useful.

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MakeMoneyBtc
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June 04, 2019, 09:13:32 PM
 #10

Just like in fiat markets technical analysis can work or not, depending on the person and how he/she's doing it. The only problem is bitcoin price can be easier manipulated meaning the price could change in a very short time without anyone expecting it regardless of how much time they've put into analysis.
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June 04, 2019, 10:50:34 PM
 #11

I don't want to rely my decisions in crypto in technical analysis and predictions. We could actually do it ourselves by observing the market and our holding's prices. We might only get confused if we'll rely things on other's opinion. We might have a different interpretation.

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June 05, 2019, 04:05:19 AM
 #12

The price of Bitcoin is not the same as its value. Price is determined by the market in which it trades: by means of supply and demand. ... In other words, if the market believes the price of something --like property, a certain stock or Bitcoin-- will increase in the future, they are more likely to pay more for it now.

Unfortunately, many companies do not recognize bitcoin as a legitimate exchange. Cryptocurrency could be an effective online currency exchange; however, buyers buy up bitcoins with the intent of investing much as they would with stocks.

Some even think that bitcoin is a solid investment opportunity for retirement.

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June 05, 2019, 07:30:00 AM
 #13

TA from anyone helped but that was before.Now we dont need to listen to nobody on how we will  trade on what mark we will enter on what mark we sell.TA's are just simply  manipulating words use to trick us.Plus TA from someone doesnt really affect the flow of bitcion it is always on whales who can say what will go next

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June 05, 2019, 02:09:47 PM
 #14

Technical analysis isn't always reliable. It was helpful during the old crypto times but the votality of the market now is really unpredictable. We can predict and speculate but there's no assurance anymore that we could guess the exact prices of cryptocurrency in the future. Proper observation of dealing with the market is the best thing that we can do.
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June 05, 2019, 02:32:33 PM
 #15

first of all nobody should never have only one attitude in any market because the markets themselves aren't staying the same. every single market has ups and downs, bulls and bear trends. so you can't be the only one who sticks to one and forgets about everything else.

secondly, you are looking at the solid bitcoin rise compared to the pumps of the altcoins. over the past couple of months bitcoin has risen 180% and that is a solid rise.
in comparison during the same time apart from past 2 weeks all those altcoins you named were getting dumped hard. but as soon as bitcoin price reached a moderate stability they started getting pumpd. funny thing is when bitcoin went below $8k they are getting dumped hard again Cheesy

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June 05, 2019, 02:38:22 PM
 #16

Technical analysis isn't always reliable. It was helpful during the old crypto times but the votality of the market now is really unpredictable. We can predict and speculate but there's no assurance anymore that we could guess the exact prices of cryptocurrency in the future. Proper observation of dealing with the market is the best thing that we can do.

Yes you're right it is hard to predict the exact price of cryptos especially the bitcoin. When the bitcoin dump before I read a lot of speculations about it that it is just like what happen before but after this it will grow faster again but in reality I don't see any growth after the dump and a lot of scammers and shitcoins existed. So I think we need to be a servant with what is happening in a crypto world so that it is easy for us to analyze everything.

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June 05, 2019, 03:03:25 PM
 #17

With cryptocurrency, you can only go so far with TA. I would like to believe that bitcoin has grown so much that whales will have a hard time manipulating it, but it is not true. Whales still manipulate bitcoin, and TA cannot help you if whales started moving. You have to be alert and ready if you see some whales started to make waves.
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