MasterLuc new long term prediction

[exstasie]

2. As it dropped fast - as it should bounce fast to retest lost $6000 level and log trend at around 10000-20000. 2019-2020 AD.

The price doesn't seem to be eager to get back into the 10k-20k range. Especially the 20k looks now kinda untouchable, for 2019 at least.
Let's stay optimistic for 2020, with the halving. But then the less-than-a-year time span may not be enough for a drop back to 6k levels. Maybe 10k?

The progression went like this:

1. Bottom at $3,000- in December 2018.
2. Test of log trend at $10K-$20K. This already happened with the December-June run to $13,800s.
3. Fall back to $6,000 area by 2020. The tag of $6,500s the other day may have been close enough, but we may still go lower.

In any case, we're already looking forward to point #4 now:

4. Go to new highs. Beyond 2020 year.

When we were trading in the $3,000s last December, the idea of reaching $10K-$20K in 2019 seemed equally out of reach. During bear season, we always tend to underestimate the honey badger.

[rez303]

Although in time he does not have absolute accuracy, he correctly predicts the price of Bitcoin. The current price of bitcoin once fell to the support of $ 6k5 and has now rebounded to $ 7k7 in just a few days. This is a very good sign and in the future bitcoin may rise to more than $ 20k. he really gave me pretty convincing evidence.

[BrewMaster]

2. As it dropped fast - as it should bounce fast to retest lost $6000 level and log trend at around 10000-20000. 2019-2020 AD.

The price doesn't seem to be eager to get back into the 10k-20k range. Especially the 20k looks now kinda untouchable, for 2019 at least.
Let's stay optimistic for 2020, with the halving. But then the less-than-a-year time span may not be enough for a drop back to 6k levels. Maybe 10k?

the big rise probably won't happen in the remaining only one month of this year but will happen in next year. it won't be only because of halving! it will be because it is time and it isn't going to be hard since as soon as price shows the slightest signs of rising and breaks any kind of resistance (specifically $10k) then the FOMO will kick in and we see repetition of all the previous FOMOs such as the one at $4k which ended up with shooting up 100% at first and the final 250% rise to $13k.

[pooya87]

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/

this link actually proved to be one of the wrong predictions by him!
he jumped to conclusion too fast and was caught in the panic sell of the time this was released (meaning in 2018 when price fell down suddenly to below $4k). he was predicting more fall down to $1300 which obviously never happened!

No, he said the $1,300-$3,000 range. So he was off by a ~$120.

Then he predicted the rally to $14K and the subsequent decline to $6K pretty much like clockwork. If you're complaining about that prediction, your expectations are too high.

price fell down more than 50% from $6k+ and then he speculates price can fall down more and not just a small amount, he says it can fall down up to 60% more! i wouldn't say he was off by $120, he was off by A LOT more not to mention that expecting bitcoin to lose more than half its price right after it just lost half its price is naive!
i would have counted this as the expected error in speculation that anybody has but only if price hadn't have fallen that much the previous day! you can't expect two gigantic dumps for no reason back to back. that is just impossible, even after the bubble popped and price fell 50%, it recovered and went up 70% before having more drops.
what he is doing here is not prediction, he is trying so hard to make that green line happen that is why he said $1300.

[jadenunderhill]

Why are you using his year old prediction?

There is another in his telegram channel and it is much more actual:




And here is his last comment (week ago):

There we have a weekly ma200 for 4000. We can visit it. And that fits the picture above.

So, according to this traingle picture we will see something around 4K till next year.

[NeuroticFish]

The progression went like this:

1. Bottom at $3,000- in December 2018.
2. Test of log trend at $10K-$20K. This already happened with the December-June run to $13,800s.
3. Fall back to $6,000 area by 2020. The tag of $6,500s the other day may have been close enough, but we may still go lower.

Thanks for this.

When we were trading in the $3,000s last December, the idea of reaching $10K-$20K in 2019 seemed equally out of reach. During bear season, we always tend to underestimate the honey badger.

I don't say 20k is untouchable. My fears were that we may need a bit longer time frame.
But I missed the June part (I was thinking that he means a new price rise in the next months, a rise much closer to the ATH), so... I guess I have to read more.
You guys shattered my bubble.

So, according to this traingle picture we will see something around 4K till next year.

I guess that instead of complaining that the price is falling, I'll have to learn to enjoy it  , since the faster we get over it the better.

[exstasie]

Why are you using his year old prediction?

There is another in his telegram channel and it is much more actual:

Because his December prediction was accurate and is still on track today.

Meanwhile, this triangle is totally out of proportion. It makes no sense from EW perspective. There's also no historical precedent for revisiting the 200-week MA again so soon.

Anything is possible but I wouldn't bet on his latest prediction.

[gentlemand]

New ATH only in 2021.

If it's to happen again this is when I'll be expecting it at the earliest. I don't think 2020 is going to bring much.

He's admitted to being clueless as to what's happening at various points since his original much quoted chart fell apart. Am interested to hear what he has to say but he proved to be mortal just like everyone else in the end.

[barota]

i think prices can rise fast and reach another new ath next year or 2020 because halving will start soon and total supply of bitcoin in the market to decrease ;  the prices effect by total bitcoin in the market and for sure all halving have good effect at prices bitcoin

[Wind_FURY]

New ATH only in 2021.

If it's to happen again this is when I'll be expecting it at the earliest. I don't think 2020 is going to bring much.

He's admitted to being clueless as to what's happening at various points since his original much quoted chart fell apart. Am interested to hear what he has to say but he proved to be mortal just like everyone else in the end.

Or 2022. After the first halving there was 300, more or less, days before the new ATH. The second halving had 500 days, more or less. The third might take longer.

[btc_angela]

i think prices can rise fast and reach another new ath next year or 2020 because halving will start soon and total supply of bitcoin in the market to decrease ;  the prices effect by total bitcoin in the market and for sure all halving have good effect at prices bitcoin

Nah, I don't think that we can simply reach another all time high in 2020. Past historical says that we might take longer that 500 days after lowest low of $3200 in December 2018. The only question is where should all the money will come to pour into the market in 2020-2023.

[exstasie]

i think prices can rise fast and reach another new ath next year or 2020 because halving will start soon and total supply of bitcoin in the market to decrease ;  the prices effect by total bitcoin in the market and for sure all halving have good effect at prices bitcoin

Nah, I don't think that we can simply reach another all time high in 2020. Past historical says that we might take longer that 500 days after lowest low of $3200 in December 2018. The only question is where should all the money will come to pour into the market in 2020-2023.

Institutional money. The market finally has regulated, physically deliverable futures and custody offered by legacy players (Bakkt/ICE). Fidelity was also just granted a NYDFS trust license for trading and custody, similar to Bakkt.

Most institutions want nothing to do with the unregulated spot market. Now that reputable and regulated options for exposure are emerging, Wall Street could be influential in a future bull run.