@GoldmanSachs:“Implications of Current Policies for Inflation, Gold and Bitcoin"

[Plutosky]

This is the evidence they still haven't figured out what Bitcoin is (nor what gives it value)

[bkbirge]

Goldmann Ballsacks can suck my left fucking nut.

That's smart to keep one ball in reserve in case of a dip.

[Hueristic]

Goldmann Ballsacks can suck my left fucking nut.

That's smart to keep one ball in reserve in case of a dip.

Hugely important to keep the right in reserve.

[fonship]

I am just waiting when Goldman will rename itself to Bitcoinman  , once they realize what will be the future currency, asset, or store of value.

[Vispilio]

Interesting thread, thanks for sharing the GS slides.

Bitcoin and select few other crypto currencies offer the answer to the fundamental enigma that the world financial markets have had to live with since the quantitative easing and bail-out sessions of the 2007-8 crisis, which has since become the new norm:

USD is routinely being printed and circulated at record levels, and yet it retains its value against all the major currencies, and, more importantly, decisively destroys all the emerging market currencies...

So, outside of the US, Euro Zone, and China & Japan (the last 2 use similar tactics of artificially devaluing their currency for global competitiveness so in fact can be added to the other group), for the rest of the world, Crypto Currencies are a powerful hedge against the systematic theft of their economic output, and have proven to fulfill store of value and unit of account functions far more profitably than their national currencies have done so for the last decade...

[davis196]

This is the evidence they still haven't figured out what Bitcoin is (nor what gives it value)

"Cryptocurrencies as a whole are not a scarce resource"???This is the most stupid statement in regards of cryptocurrencies that I've ever seen or heard.So basically those Goldman Sachs "analysts" can't distinguish Bitcoin Core from a random shitcoin with less than 100K USD market cap.This is hilarious.
Nobody with brains views the cryptocurrency world "as a whole".The different coins are competing with each other and Bitcoin Core is still the king.Bitcoin Core HAS real scarcity and value,most of the altcoins lack scarcity.

[JayJuanGee]

This is the evidence they still haven't figured out what Bitcoin is (nor what gives it value)

"Cryptocurrencies as a whole are not a scarce resource"???This is the most stupid statement in regards of cryptocurrencies that I've ever seen or heard.So basically those Goldman Sachs "analysts" can't distinguish Bitcoin Core from a random shitcoin with less than 100K USD market cap.This is hilarious.
Nobody with brains views the cryptocurrency world "as a whole".The different coins are competing with each other and Bitcoin Core is still the king.Bitcoin Core HAS real scarcity and value,most of the altcoins lack scarcity.

There is no need to refer to bitcoin as bitcoin core... ... there is only one bitcoin, so that "core" qualifier is not necessary.

Otherwise, I agree with your other points.

[Hueristic]

This is the evidence they still haven't figured out what Bitcoin is (nor what gives it value)

"Cryptocurrencies as a whole are not a scarce resource"???This is the most stupid statement in regards of cryptocurrencies that I've ever seen or heard.So basically those Goldman Sachs "analysts" can't distinguish Bitcoin Core from a random shitcoin with less than 100K USD market cap.This is hilarious.
Nobody with brains views the cryptocurrency world "as a whole".The different coins are competing with each other and Bitcoin Core is still the king.Bitcoin Core HAS real scarcity and value,most of the altcoins lack scarcity.

This is no surprise, it is just a reminder of their agenda. Anyone who has been watching them has seen this over and over. I am dumbfounded people still want institutions involved at all and help push their agendas. It makes me sick to see otherwise intelligent posters support these scumsuckers.

[Upgrade00]

So basically those Goldman Sachs "analysts" can't distinguish Bitcoin Core from a random shitcoin with less than 100K USD market cap.This is hilarious.

And when you consider that even if a cryptocurrency has a significant market cap it doesn't qualify it as being a viable project or an investment option, as such figures can be manipulated.
Lumping up all cryptocurrencies together is as silly as doing that to Fiats and projecting the failure of one country's currency on all the others. Reason seems to have taking the backseat to agenda

[fillippone]

This is the evidence they still haven't figured out what Bitcoin is (nor what gives it value)

"Cryptocurrencies as a whole are not a scarce resource"???This is the most stupid statement in regards of cryptocurrencies that I've ever seen or heard.So basically those Goldman Sachs "analysts" can't distinguish Bitcoin Core from a random shitcoin with less than 100K USD market cap.This is hilarious.
Nobody with brains views the cryptocurrency world "as a whole".The different coins are competing with each other and Bitcoin Core is still the king.Bitcoin Core HAS real scarcity and value,most of the altcoins lack scarcity.

This is no surprise, it is just a reminder of their agenda. Anyone who has been watching them has seen this over and over. I am dumbfounded people still want institutions involved at all and help push their agendas. It makes me sick to see otherwise intelligent posters support these scumsuckers.

Agree.
History of those institutions has long proven they are not focused on their client's interest, rather than their own.
Take care when dealing with them.

In this general framework I reinstate my tough on this.

They are reassuring the vast majority of their client: "Investing in dollars is safe" (dollar won't be debased) , "Investing in us is safe" (Gold hasn't protected from inflation, you have to stay inside the financial market"), "Equity markets are safe, and given the fact more stimulus is coming, equity are meant to moon" TINA (there is no Alternative), give us your money.

In addition, they are sending a message to the regulators, like there is a need too, there is a big circular reference here. We are the good guys, bitcoin is a fraud for dark net users and scammers.

But maybe, don't look at what they say, look at what they do.
They invested in circle, they were among the first banks rumored to have a bitcoin trading desk, before officially scrapping out their plans in 2018. I am not rich enough to be a client of their private wealth management (by several orders of magnitude), but I bet my right ball I could have them to handle my physical bitcoin.

So, this is the way I read all those institutions actions toward bitcoin. For the first time in history, people has the option (an option, it is) to skip intermediaries, so essentially skipping bank.
Banks need a way to stay relevant in this new environment, slowly progressing in the Kübler-Ross model.

[Hueristic]

^^^^

Well said.

[JayJuanGee]

So basically those Goldman Sachs "analysts" can't distinguish Bitcoin Core from a random shitcoin with less than 100K USD market cap.This is hilarious.

And when you consider that even if a cryptocurrency has a significant market cap it doesn't qualify it as being a viable project or an investment option, as such figures can be manipulated.
Lumping up all cryptocurrencies together is as silly as doing that to Fiats and projecting the failure of one country's currency on all the others. Reason seems to have taking the backseat to agenda

Your post, Upgrade00, highlighting market cap causes me to reconsider the point that davis196 seems to be making, and he is mentioning shitcoins as having less than $100k market cap..... Huh?  What the fuck?

Such a classification that requires some low market cap, such as $100k or lower, would cause a whole fucking lot of shitcoins to be considered as something other than shitcoins.  Hopefully, you were not wanting to suggest that davis196?

Maybe that is why you felt some kind of need to appendage bitcoin with a "core" descriptive qualifier?

There should almost be no fucking way that anyone should be considering either of the bcashes as having some kind of status that warrants any kind of meaningful credibility.  Sure they have been sucking off the bitcoin tit in a variety ways, and even engaging in deceptive practices trying to imply that they are bitcoin equivalents or something less than a shitcoin, but in the end, any kind of meaningful assessment of either of those pieces of crap should not lead quasi-intelligent people to conclude that they are anything but shitcoins. 

I don't necessarily want to get into any kind of discussion of the various possible use cases of shitcoins, such as those bcashes because why give them any kind of glory that they do not deserve, and surely, I am not saying that there might not be ways to make short term killings on their various pumpening events, to the extent that you might be able to figure out how to time such short term bets and are willing to stick your toe into crap projects, and surely another dynamic remains with the likelihood that both of the crap bcash shit projects have a decent number of bag holders that might incentivize them to pump that shit, so sure, both of them might continue to persist for way longer than any kind of reason or logic could really explain.

[fillippone]

Kraken publicly answered to Goldman Sachs' Bitcoin criticism:

Greetings,

Goldman Sachs’ Consumer and Investment Strategy Group gave a presentation last week that, in our opinion, severely underestimated Bitcoin’s value for global payments and savings.  

At Kraken, we feel it’s important to inform our clients why we think differently about this innovative asset that’s core to our brand.

Quite simply, Bitcoin has overcome many barriers to adoption, growing to a $170 billion market capitalization in 10 years with no marketing team, no investment bank backing and no support from governments.

If you’re still new to the technology, it’s important to first understand Bitcoin shares many of the properties that give traditional commodities and government monies value – scarcity, durability, portability, divisibility, fungibility and acceptability.

Our Bitcoin primer “Vires In Numeris” is a balanced report that addresses many of Goldman’s arguments and covers topics essential to understanding Bitcoin, including its:

Adoption and Use: Not a currency? The data simply tells a different story. Explore how Bitcoin has grown since 2009 by transaction volume, wallet downloads and mining hashrate, and why these metrics matter.

Origins and History: Too volatile? Learn how Bitcoin has grown out of decades of computer science research to achieve a market never before thought possible. We include a timeline of Bitcoin’s major events and inspirations.

Protocol and Technology: Not suitable for investment? Review the major components of Bitcoin’s protocol and learn how they have been combined to secure value stored on the blockchain for nearly a decade.
 
Download the Full Report

Please feel free to forward this report to friends, family and coworkers who are interested in learning more. You can read the full Goldman Sachs report and its findings here.

The Kraken Team

Inside the quote you can find a link to their Bitcoin: Vires in Numeris Report from Kraken Intelligence.
A nice read.
For sure more wittily, well written and intresting than the blunt Goldman Report.

[Hueristic]

Kraken publicly answered to Goldman Sachs' Bitcoin criticism:



Inside the quote you can find a link to their Bitcoin: Vires in Numeris Report from Kraken Intelligence.
A nice read.
For sure more wittily, well written and intresting than the blunt Goldman Report.

Not to mention cites actual "FaCTs" in evidence unlike the Goldmann ballsacks FUD piece.

[fillippone]

Not to mention cites actual "FaCTs" in evidence unlike the Goldmann ballsacks FUD piece.

A previously stated, that call was at an embarrassing low level, I do agree, they basically recycliced a lot of FUD and informations from old presentation adding a few latest bad news and factoids and unproven speculations on ransomware against COVID workers.
So, I am not surprised someone decided to counter that with a good quality research. Just to expose their flawed intentions.

[Upgrade00]

A couple of other individuals in the financial sector has also fired back at GoldmanSachs criticism of bitcoin;

Co-founder of Gemini exchange, Tyler Winklevoss wrote on Twitter;

Crypto used to be where you ended up when you couldn’t make it on Wall Street. The quality of Goldman Sachs’ recent research on #Bitcoin demonstrates that there has been a talent flippening. Today, Wall Street is where you end up when you can’t make it in crypto.

The Swiss bank also replied through their head of digital assets;

Chris Thomas of Swissquote Bank published a point-by-point rebuttal of Goldman Sachs’ recent critique of Bitcoin, which Thomas decried as being, “very one-sided, unfair to the crypto community…and a disservice to the Goldman Sachs investor base.”
...
Thomas rebuked Goldman Sachs’ opinion that Bitcoin, and cryptocurrency in general, did not constitute an asset class of its own, writing, “The world is witnessing an emerging asset class being formed… Bitcoin, and select others, are the driving force behind the paradigm shift which is happening, “ wrote Thomas.

“Goldman Sachs is ignoring the strong foundations of this emerging asset class based on cryptographic principles, and a world where many, if not all, assets will be tokenized, and trading them will be democratized,” he added.

“Absolutely, Bitcoin did fall 37%... And just one month later, oil markets plunged 333% in the space of 24 hours, nearly a 10x greater drop, touching a low of MINUS $40 per barrel at one point,” he wrote, adding, “In December 2019, Goldman Sachs predicted the average price of oil through 2020 would be $63 per barrel.”

Thomas told Decrypt he felt obliged to offer a rebuttal to Goldman Sachs’ misinformed, “insulting,” argument. He said Goldman Sachs’ view of cryptocurrency isn’t necessarily typical of all major financial institutions, who must balance their fear of disruption with a willingness to adapt.

“The larger banks are on one side scared of being disrupted, but on the other side, want to open themselves up to new revenue streams and investment opportunities,” Thomas told Decrypt, “JP Morgan changed their tune and onboarded two of the largest crypto companies in the last month.”

Source - https://decrypt.co/31089/swiss-bank-fires-back-at-goldman-sachs-over-bitcoin-critique?amp=1
This shows that knowledge about Bitcoin is growing and being spread, hence obvious FUDs as an attempt to dissuade investors will no longer have the desired effect.

[fillippone]

WHile gold is going north and trading at around 1740 USD/oz, near the recent highs, GS changed their mind.
Now they see XAU trading at aroun 2,000 USD/oz in the next 12 months.

Gold has struggled to find a direction since rebounding in late March on the back of the Fed’s ‘QE ‘ announcement as it remains torn between a large negative “Wealth” shock to EM consumers and CB demand and a surge in “Fear” driven DM investment demand. Indeed, the covid shock to EM consumer demand this year has been substantial. India’s gold imports plunged by 99% in April/May, while Russia’s central bank stopped buying gold since the oil price collapse. While the Chinese gold premium (a proxy for onshore demand) has recovered from recent lows, it still remains below its historical average.
Offsetting this weakness has been an unprecedented surge in DM “Fear” driven investment demand. Year-to-date gold coin demand is up 30%, total weight of gold in ETF’s is up 20% YoY and there is a large amount of latent gold demand. As a rule of thumb ETFs capture around half of physical investment volume inflows implying that DM investment demand could be up as much as 1000 tonnes which more than offsets the 700 tonne fall in EM consumer demand.
Such an unstable environment has raised concerns that, as risk-on sentiment improves with DM economies emerging from lockdown, the pace of DM investment demand will moderate due to less “Fear”, while EM “Wealth” demand will take longer to recover — creating room for a correction in gold prices. However, as we have argued in the past gold investment demand tends to grow into the early stage of the economic recovery, driven by continued debasement concerns and lower real rates. Simultaneously we see a material comeback from EM consumer demand boosted by easing of lockdowns and a weaker dollar. Accordingly, we are raising our 3/6/12 month gold price forecasts to $1800/1900/2000/toz from $1600/1650/1800/toz and maintaining our long Dec-20 gold trading recommendation

They are quite conservative on this exstimate, inmho.

They are also changing their view on the effectivenes of Gold hedging against inflation:

For gold prices to go materially above $2000, we believe inflation will need to move above the Fed’s 2% target and this move to be met with a muted policy response. Historically, gold’s relationship with inflation is non-linear. Gold does not display a strong correlation with inflation while the latter is moderate but becomes strongly correlated when inflation gets above a certain threshold. Gold also tends to go up moderately in deflationary environments. In fact, we find that what matters most is the deviation of inflation from its trend, rather than its absolute level (see Exhibit 11 and Exhibit 12). This is understandable — investor expectations of future inflation changes through time. For example, while a 5% inflation rate in the early 1980’s may have been perceived as relatively low, today it would represent a large upward surprise to the market. The relationship between gold and inflation gets stronger when we adjust inflation for its trend. The relationship holds in the post-Volcker period that excludes the extremely high inflation of the 1970’s.

So, they are now telling us gold is an effective hedge against inflation when inflation is higher than expected values.
Well, when do you want to be hedged? When inflation is expectedly low?




So, basically, this is a U-turn on their stamentent about gold since their last conference. Something makes me believe their true feelings about Digital Gold are not the ones they exposed in that conference.

[tvplus006]

...
USD is routinely being printed and circulated at record levels, and yet it retains its value against all the major currencies, and, more importantly, decisively destroys all the emerging market currencies...

This is because the bulk of the issued dollars are used to support the securities market, rather than going into circulation. Therefore, it does not devalue to other world currencies.Therefore, it does not devalue to other world currencies. In addition, other Central banks also include their own printing press.

[Thasins61]

I did not expect banks to be bold in proposing that they might invest in cryptocurrencies or put those ideas publicly?

In the past we could only hear criticism and skepticism, but the language seemed more accepting and open, which may be considered a point around building huge investment funds denominated in digital assets.

The current crisis or any future crises may accelerate such measures.