Raoul Pal - Bitcoins to hit one million dollars and warns about US depression

[exstasie]

Interesting...so you think that gold would be weak as well? It is quite possible.
Re Raoul Pal: yes, exactly, if dollar is strong, why btc and especially gold be strong as well?

Well what do I know? I'm just another armchair economist.

I'm sure Raoul Pal's analysis goes much deeper than mine. My basic idea is that both liquidity crises and deflation represent strong downward pressures on commodity prices. Maybe he views debt deflation depressions as different than other depressions, and believes they have a different effect on money commodities vs. food commodities and productive commodities. I'm not sure.

This analysis and a few others have been influential for me: https://www.valuewalk.com/2020/04/deflation-gold-prices/

He considers these factors to be mid-term bearish for gold:

• The shutdowns are eating into savings and wealth. Diminished disposable capital and rising debt will hurt demand.
• Deflation has historically been bad for gold.
• Dollar funding stress from disrupted cash flows means a stronger dollar, which also typically means weaker gold prices.
• Previous divergences between oil and gold have ended with a decline in gold prices.

[buwaytress]

If the situation he and others posit becomes true (the fiat, banking, economic system is fucked and goes to hell), then sure. Bitcoin could hit 1 million USD. But if we're thinking about a future like that, then it's not impossible to foresee a 1,000% inflation for USD in say, 5 years. So, relatively speaking, that 1 million dollars is only worth $100k today. Sure, it makes sense.

[SaShiRaJaVu]

If the situation he and others posit becomes true (the fiat, banking, economic system is fucked and goes to hell), then sure.

Let us all asume that the depression is predicted just for the US dollar because of the corona virus and i think he forgot the fact that the situation is not better elsewhere around the globe, the European economy will be affected as well as all the developing countries is struggling to cope up with the situation and one thing is certain we will have a global recession. The study is full of flaws just taking into consideration that only the US economy will be doomed after the pandemic.

[buwaytress]

If the situation he and others posit becomes true (the fiat, banking, economic system is fucked and goes to hell), then sure.

Let us all asume that the depression is predicted just for the US dollar because of the corona virus and i think he forgot the fact that the situation is not better elsewhere around the globe, the European economy will be affected as well as all the developing countries is struggling to cope up with the situation and one thing is certain we will have a global recession. The study is full of flaws just taking into consideration that only the US economy will be doomed after the pandemic.

It's strange to think but these economists from US and China still think like nothing else happens outside their borders. And to be fair, when they're living in and feeling the effects of their economies, perhaps macro doesn't really impact them personally. Still, nothing is going to be f*cked the way Bitcoin maximalists dream of. Trust me, we won't be starving the way our grandparents were. I'm talking about us here online able to chat in a "great depression".

[Wind_FURY]

With bitcoin and its halving coming up its the complete opposite of cash. So I believe him in that regard. However the $1 million price point is just out of hand even in 5 years. I think if we even hit 6 figures that will be considered a great price.

I can easily see $1 million in 5 years, especially if the market just wicks to that price in another bubble.

In the next year or three, I don't know how this pandemic will play out. It could be stagflation, which would be bullish for BTC. Or it could be depression, which would probably be bearish.

"Easily" $1,000,000 within 5 years? Someone might demand that you cut the familiy jewels for that. Haha.

Although, I can see 6 figures within 5 years. The fudsters will only wish that we believed them, to cry with them.

[exstasie]

I can easily see $1 million in 5 years, especially if the market just wicks to that price in another bubble.

In the next year or three, I don't know how this pandemic will play out. It could be stagflation, which would be bullish for BTC. Or it could be depression, which would probably be bearish.

"Easily" $1,000,000 within 5 years? Someone might demand that you cut the familiy jewels for that. Haha.

Although, I can see 6 figures within 5 years. The fudsters will only wish that we believed them, to cry with them.

Most people overestimate Bitcoin's sell side liquidity. Past bubbles have been marked by exchange supply drying up. There is no limit to the upside when nobody is selling and demand is surging.

[davis196]

So this is the new John McAfee,I guess.
This guy thinks that trillions of dollars will be invested in Bitcoin for the next 5 years.Why?
Will retail merchants accept BTC payments?Nope.Will the average Joe abandon all his credit/debit cards and setup a BTC wallet+buying some Bitcoins?I don't think so.The only way for pumping the Bitcoin price that high is to create a huge price bubble with the help of institutional investors-banks,hedge funds,corporations.
Don't get me wrong.I want the Bitcoin price to go as high as possible,but let's be realistic.I want this to happen in a stable and predictable way,due to the mass BTC adoption and not via price bubbles&speculation.

[BlackFor3st]

Raoul Pal who’s a global macro investor has made a prediction for bitcoin prices that they’ll hit the one million mark in the next five years. Further he’s even compared bitcoin market with gold market to drive his point across, but in my personal opinion both are different assets and hence I don’t think his prediction is correct as he’s based it on a wrong analysis. Also he claims that US markets  is in depression mode, and soon the global markets will also fall in depression which maybe accurate to a certain extent. What do you’ll make of his predictions is he right to use the gold market to make a prediction for bitcoin?, and is the US market already in depression mode?.

Sources:

https://u.today/raoul-pal-predicts-when-bitcoin-btc-price-could-reach-1-mln

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-think-the-coronavirus-has-put-the-us-economy-into-another-great-depression-strategist-172759535.html

There is no further details to his claim and his speculation is basically coming from his own opinion only so we cannot really trust it. If he can further put a good evidence to his claim like how he concluded that US is currently in depression then we can say that his speculation about the bitcoin price will be a little bit genuine.

But considering the event, I am sure that he is not aware to his basis and only put that prediction base on the past prediction by other big personalities. I am not really sure if Gold can be used to predict the bitcoin price and as you can see 1m$ bitcoin price is a very long journey even if we can have 2 bull season within 5 years.

[exstasie]

This guy thinks that trillions of dollars will be invested in Bitcoin for the next 5 years.Why?
Will retail merchants accept BTC payments?Nope.Will the average Joe abandon all his credit/debit cards and setup a BTC wallet+buying some Bitcoins?I don't think so.The only way for pumping the Bitcoin price that high is to create a huge price bubble with the help of institutional investors-banks,hedge funds,corporations.

Don't rule it out. A lot can happen in 5 years. The crazy Bitcoiner in me thinks central banks could enter the picture as well, with BTC becoming a reserve asset eventually.

Don't get me wrong.I want the Bitcoin price to go as high as possible,but let's be realistic.I want this to happen in a stable and predictable way,due to the mass BTC adoption and not via price bubbles&speculation.

No more bubbles? Unlikely. Until mass adoption has actually occurred, it'll remain a very speculative market.

[FanEagle]

There is really nothing you can do to stop these people because they get a microphone and you don't, so they will say whatever they want and they will get some news and some attention.

However what you can do is exactly this, whenever you see news like this in place you could basically just warn everyone that this person could very well be wrong and why they are wrong. Bitcoin could hit one million dollars that is not a joke but not right now and probably not anytime soon neither, that could happen on a very very very long period of time. I can see bitcoin being a million dollars probably 10-15 years from now, that would be realistic, probably in two in three decades which would be more guaranteed. But even with that knowledge I wouldn't guarantee it, I would say its probably but not definite.

[exstasie]

The latest thread from Raoul Pal after BTC tested $10K today: https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1258567633168932874

Whatever plays out, after a KEY technical break like today, the probability of vastly higher prices has risen dramatically.

And this is confirmed by the stock to flow models by @100trillionUSD and the breakout has happened almost exactly at The Halvening.

His first target: $400,000
Second target: $1 million

This is the "technical break" he's talking about:



I'm skeptical, but after living through 2 bubbles I won't say it's impossible.