Will bitcoin reach adult age (18 years old) before there are 20 million BTC ?

[remotemass]

Will bitcoin reach adult age (18 years old) before there are 20 million BTC in circulation?

What is your best-educated guess?

-remotemass

[dothebeats]

Bitcoin will mature first (18 yrs old in your own description) before we reach 20 million coins, or at least it will be very close.

There are 18.3 / 18.4 million coins that are already mined. If there are, on average, 900 coins mined per day:

Code:

900 * 365 * 4 (before the next halving, roughly) = 1314000

Add that to the next halving, which will net around 450 coins on average per day:

Code:

450 * 365 * 3 = 243000

Add both values, it will lead you to 1557000 additional bitcoins produced within the next 7 years. That's at least 19857000 coins mined if my math is ever correct.

[stompix]

Code:

450 * 365 * 3 = 243000

I don't know what you did here but it ain't right.
Coin number 20 mil will be mined about two years after the next halving, so BTC won't be able to get a Japanese driving license by that time.
 

[Maus0728]

In today's age, bitcoin is approximately 11 years old -- (11 years 5 months 3 days) prior to January 9, 2009 whereas the creation of Genesis Block to be exact. Moreover, in order for bitcoin to reach 18 years of age, we needed to reach an exact date of January 9, 2027. In that case, if we subtract the estimated date to reach 18 yrs of age to the present date, we will going to have an approximate 6 years 6 months 28 days to compute before bitcoin celebrate his 18th birthday. Of course in order to compute an accurate data, we need to convert 6 years 6 months 28 days into calendar days which give us 2402 calendar days

In time of writing this, we have a total of 18,428,950 BTC bitcoin in existence, and we needed to multiply the average bitcoin created per day to 2402 calendar days with respect to halving. Before doing so, we need to know the number of particular days in the next halving and present halving.  

Block reward: 6.25 | Average bitcoin created per day 900 | June 12, 2020 - May 10, 2024 (1428 days)
900 * 1428 = 1 285 200 BTC

Block reward: 3.125 | Average bitcoin created per day 450 | From May 10, 2024 - May 10, 2028 (1461 days). Before proceeding, we need to take note that May 10, 2028 is not exact date of bitcoin's 18th birthday. If we are going to subtract Jan 9, 2027 and May 10, 2024, it will give us a result of 974 calendar days whereas the statement from @stompix is correct. It is about 2 years 7 months 30 days after the 4th halving.

I don't know what you did here but it ain't right.
Coin number 20 mil will be mined about two years after the next halving, so BTC won't be able to get a Japanese driving license by that time.

450 * 974 (2402 - 1428) = 438 300 BTC

To add: 1 285 200 +  438 300 = 1 723 500 BTC added
18,428,950 BTC +  1 723 500 BTC = 20 152 450 BTC circulating supply after bitcoin reaches its 18th birthday.

To check:
1428 days + 974 days = 2402 days ✓

PS: The numerical values are just estimation based on the data given below as a reference.
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply
https://bitcoinblockhalf.com/
https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/how-many-bitcoins-are-there/

[dothebeats]

Code:

450 * 365 * 3 = 243000

I don't know what you did here but it ain't right.
Coin number 20 mil will be mined about two years after the next halving, so BTC won't be able to get a Japanese driving license by that time.
 

That's why I said at the end, if my math was ever correct!