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Author Topic: BTC has hit ATH against Turkish Lira  (Read 443 times)
stompix
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August 12, 2020, 09:35:19 AM
 #41

For example the devaluation of Turkish Lira cannot be the only factor why Bitcoin has hit its all time high solely because of it, yes it contributed to it greatly but do you even think that it will rise up to that level if people are not exchanging their Turkish Lira for Bitcoin? Of course it won't, the price chart won't even move if there will be no buying and selling happening in the market.

Really?
Let's assume the whole of Turkey goes into a blackout for the next 7 days. Meanwhile bitcoin price jump to 100k$!
When power resumes in Turkey, at what price they are going to start trading bitcoin? 83k TRY (the price now) or 750k TRY (close to 100kusd)? Pretty obvious it would be the latter but why no trade happened, no demand was there, why would the price jump also 10x times? 

The price of BTC in any currency is still dictated by the global market, and it would be crazy to think that for a prolonged period of time the price would be abnormal high in just one country that is connected to the global markets and banking infrastructure. I'm excluding countries like Venezuela or Iran from those, these are in a league of their own, spikes can happen but temporarily which is not the case here. All this happens because just as we have arbitrage between exchanged when it comes to USD<>BTC , exchanges and traders in those countries will act like this, selling their coins for 1.2 the price in USD, then buying from foreign exchange, selling again in profit, changing liras to USD, rinse and repeat till there is no gap anymore.

Again, as an example, if you could sell your coins in turkey for 150k TRY (that's some 20k USD, what would you do, sell them change the liras to USD, send again the USD to bitstamp, buy at 12k, and dump again, and again till it won't be profitable as hundreds do the same as you and the local market has reached equilibrium with the global trade.

Bottom line, yeah the price of BTC versus a national currency can triple or quadruple even if no trading is taking place.





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August 13, 2020, 01:12:19 AM
 #42

Not all prices are equal in certainty, usually we take a price as more confident over longer periods of time.   In BTC case I think we get to monthly bars to really judge it long term which is surprising when it moves so fast.   The USD ATH traded up and back down quite quickly so by that measure it has to prove itself in future again.  
  Turkish Lira ATH will be helping participation and in population growth for BTC but Im not sure we gain directly from another currencies loss.   If we prove more reliable then we should be gaining business that might otherwise conduct in Lira or USD even, theres a good utility to BTC so I think thats more of an indirect gain by contrast BTC is useful.  That effect seems like it will increase over the next years, it wont only be Lira so we're bullish BTC and part of that is already in the price and in anticipation.

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August 17, 2020, 05:15:54 AM
 #43

There is also the fact that just because dollar recovers doesn't mean that Lira will get more valuable against Dollar as well. What if Lira loses value even faster than Dollar loses value? It may happen or may not happen but that is an option as well. Hence, I think that should not be what makes you decide when you are doing this.

If you had lira last year, and bought bitcoin with it and sold it and bought usdt with it right after it peaked at 11k, and kept that usdt, until last week and sold, you would have made over 50% profit at the same time. In just one year making over 50% profit is insane in regular trading, sure some high level day traders could be doing a lot more than that but in reality that is not what people do with investments for long term profiting.
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