Possible covert mining attack (in progress???)

[Gabrics]

I start to believe that your actual intention was FUD, despite of what you're telling from start.
It was explained long ago that the drop was under 49%. Since then the hash rate has recovered quite a lot (119-120 EH/s these days), and you still seem "worried"...

Nope, I don't want FUD. I think this is a forum for the hardcore users not those running with a FUD.
Unfortunately difficulty will still drop 5% today. I do believe though it will start increase after this (should).

Also this is a possibility forever, so no new reason for FUD, but this time the until now theoretical hashrate is there.

On the bright side and to fight possible FUD;
It seems cheap S17 and S19 are hitting alibaba and sellers are very eager to sell cheaper. So it looks that the gear is reall off!

[Gabrics]

Although as a counterargument, one would expect the decline in hashrate would have happened much faster if it was coordinated.

Theoretically speaking:
It takes time to reconfigure or even factory reset machines. It did happen fast, in a few weeks/epoch. I think that's as fast as it gets if you talk about millions of machines.

[NeuroticFish]

Unfortunately difficulty will still drop 5% today. I do believe though it will start increase after this (should).

5% down from 119-120 EH/s is not that worrisome.

It seems cheap S17 and S19 are hitting alibaba and sellers are very eager to sell cheaper. So it looks that the gear is reall off!

I'll wait until more reliable sources will tell that, especially as (too) many Alibaba sellers are not to be trusted and the chip shortage is not over.

[kano]

Although as a counterargument, one would expect the decline in hashrate would have happened much faster if it was coordinated.

Theoretically speaking:
It takes time to reconfigure or even factory reset machines. It did happen fast, in a few weeks/epoch. I think that's as fast as it gets if you talk about millions of machines.

Over exaggeration always useful to help someone think their own FUD is true

If we use the term stated "few weeks" and make it 8 weeks,
8 weeks = 4 diff changes (again we'll exaggerate that also since it was a less than 4)
So time wise we are saying since 13-May since the -15.97% diff change started from the previous diff change.
So actually ... 9.4 weeks ... wow amazing how a 'few weeks' can suddenly mean 9.4 weeks ...

4 diff changes = -15.97% -5.30% -27.94 -4.81%
= 25046487590083.3 down to 13672594272814.1 = total 45.4% diff drop
~13.4T drop = ~81.4EH/s

If you go 2 diff changes (4.9 weeks - maybe you could over exaggerate few to be 4.9?) it's -27.94 -4.81%
= 19932791027262.7 down to 13672594272814.1 = total 31.4% diff drop
~6.3T drop = ~38.3EH/s

So I guess we must have two different convert mining attacks?
The first ~half switching off machines more than a few (4.9) weeks ago and the second half switching off machine over the last few (4.9) weeks?

Numbers suggest the hash rate start has started to increase towards the end of this diff change that just happened.
I guess they forgot to enable the attack when they switched on some machines? ...

[Gabrics]

5% down from 119-120 EH/s is not that worrisome.

120EH is was a spike only. We are around 100EH. Going up now, which is a good sign.
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate

I'll wait until more reliable sources will tell that, especially as (too) many Alibaba sellers are not to be trusted and the chip shortage is not over.

Not necessarily true as any sane person only buys with Alibaba's trade assurance, scammers filtered out that way.

[Gabrics]

Numbers suggest the hash rate start has started to increase towards the end of this diff change that just happened.
I guess they forgot to enable the attack when they switched on some machines? ...

I have high hopes too. Keep that hashrate going up people!

[NeuroticFish]

Not necessarily true as any sane person only buys with Alibaba's trade assurance, scammers filtered out that way.

While I did buy from AliExpress, I have no experience with actual Alibaba. Good to have means to filter out scammers, but I'll still wait for one more source for the info  

As a small note, you've broken a little the quoting in that post; maybe you want to fix that.

[kano]

Not necessarily true as any sane person only buys with Alibaba's trade assurance, scammers filtered out that way.

While I did buy from AliExpress, I have no experience with actual Alibaba. Good to have means to filter out scammers, but I'll still wait for one more source for the info  

As a small note, you've broken a little the quoting in that post; maybe you want to fix that.

The trade assurance doesn't work if you are outside china.

[Gabrics]

The trade assurance doesn't work if you are outside china.

It did for me a few weeks back. I mean you wire the USD (to Citi) and supplier only receives it if you confirm receipt. So I think it does now.

[Gabrics]

While I did buy from AliExpress, I have no experience with actual Alibaba. Good to have means to filter out scammers, but I'll still wait for one more source for the info  

Alibaba is still pretty bad. None of the advertised prices for miners are real. I mean they advertise an S19 for 3K and than when you wanna buy it turns out to be 6K or 9K or whatever. It is pretty painful as Alibaba allows this makes the buyer's life a pain. There are a lot of scammers too trying to push you to chat apps and bitcoin prepayment.