Probability is not the reason for your loss

[cafucafucafu]

Yeah spot on.

I think that most people don't factor in the variance of their positions.

Even if they are sure that their bets carry a positive expectancy, in the short run they may see huge losses that obfuscate the story. And this applies the other way around as well. This is why Blackjack Advantage Players tend to ignore the short term noise, or at least try to train themselves to do so.

[stadus]

In every game, there's always a probability, and that's what we should know, not only knowing that there is, but we should also know what is the probability of winning. We gamblers risk money to win, so just like when putting our money in an investment, we make sure we will get a good chance of getting profitable, unless your main intention why you are gambling is just to have fun, you may not pay attention too much on this kind of details.