The effect of the 100 day war on Russia economically

[romero121]

As a result of the war, Ukraine and Russia suffered alot. Due to the support from the world countries Ukraine have made themselves strong. On the other side Russia have played a tactical game. As Russia is a big exporter of oil and gas, they were able to make ruble strong even when the European countries made sanctions. During the same time period the cryptomarket boomed as Ukraine started to receive donations in the form of cryptocurrency and Russia used it as a tool to overcome the sanctions. We've been experiencing massive food inflation as the major exporters of wheat weren't able to do business amidst the war. The 100 day war on Russia have made a big impact in the world through different means.

[be.open]

Asia (India and China) does not really need Russian oil (and natural gas) ...

They will buy it if the prices are attractive for buying, but in fact they do not really need Russian oil.  This is due to the availability of alternative sources of energy resources and the structure of the economies of these countries, as well as to a warmer climate.  

The main consumers of Russian gas and oil are European countries.  Therefore, the conflict with European countries is a very stupid and insane action.  Currently, Russia receives a lot of money from the sale of oil and gas (due to rising world energy prices).  

However, in such a business, the main thing is to maximize the supply of goods.  The most important thing here is the struggle for the volume of the market.  

This is what affects Russia's income in the long run.

You build all your assumptions on an initially false premise, so you draw the wrong conclusions.

[Smartprofit]

As a result of the war, Ukraine and Russia suffered alot. Due to the support from the world countries Ukraine have made themselves strong. On the other side Russia have played a tactical game. As Russia is a big exporter of oil and gas, they were able to make ruble strong even when the European countries made sanctions. During the same time period the cryptomarket boomed as Ukraine started to receive donations in the form of cryptocurrency and Russia used it as a tool to overcome the sanctions. We've been experiencing massive food inflation as the major exporters of wheat weren't able to do business amidst the war. The 100 day war on Russia have made a big impact in the world through different means.

I do not think that Russia uses cryptocurrencies to circumvent sanctions (although, of course, I could be wrong). 

According to businessman Chichvarkin, after February 24, 2022, 4,000,000 people emigrated from Russia.  Educated and wealthy people emigrated (bankers, entrepreneurs, programmers, journalists). 

At this time, currency restrictions on the movement of capital were introduced.  Therefore, many used cryptocurrencies (in particular, bitcoin) to transfer their capital abroad. 

Also, many young Russians leave Russia in winter for warmer countries (for example, Goa).  In the spring, these people faced such a problem as blocking bank cards (Visa and Master).  To make payments, they used financial schemes with cryptocurrencies (bitcoin and stablecoin). 

All this had a positive impact on the cryptocurrency market. 

Cryptocurrencies began to be used not only for speculation, but also for real financial transactions.

[Ultegra134]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Russia selling oil to Asia count as a backup plan? I read an article claiming that Russia had over $20b in revenue from selling crude oil, which is a 50% increase just for 2022. On the other hand, Europe is suffering from immense inflation and excessive gas prices, burdening both whole nations who are forced to implement measures to tackle the excessive costs of living.

Exactly. Out of the 8 million barrels of crude and refined products that Russia export every day, now China and India together account for more than 3 million. And this figure may increase further. The Indian government is in talks with Russian counterparts for further discounts to the imports and Chinese government has announced that they are looking forward to fill their strategic oil reserves with Russian crude. On top of that, a large number of Asian nations (Sri Lanka, Pakistan.etc) have expressed interest in Russian crude.

That's interesting, I hadn't investigated how much they export to Asian countries, but they are certainly taking advantage of discounted oil. If I remember correctly, the discounted price is at least 20% lower than it's actually trading. With prices only expected to rise, it's actually quite reasonable to opt for discounted oil.

Asia (India and China) does not really need Russian oil (and natural gas) ...

They will buy it if the prices are attractive for buying, but in fact they do not really need Russian oil.  This is due to the availability of alternative sources of energy resources and the structure of the economies of these countries, as well as to a warmer climate.  

The main consumers of Russian gas and oil are European countries.  Therefore, the conflict with European countries is a very stupid and insane action.  Currently, Russia receives a lot of money from the sale of oil and gas (due to rising world energy prices).  

However, in such a business, the main thing is to maximize the supply of goods.  The most important thing here is the struggle for the volume of the market.  

This is what affects Russia's income in the long run.

They don't, but it's being bought at discounted prices. On the one hand, I can't blame them for doing so, but on the other hand, they're funding Putin/Russia, the country who started the war in the first place and drove us to this condition.

[hyudien]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Russia selling oil to Asia count as a backup plan? I read an article claiming that Russia had over $20b in revenue from selling crude oil, which is a 50% increase just for 2022. On the other hand, Europe is suffering from immense inflation and excessive gas prices, burdening both whole nations who are forced to implement measures to tackle the excessive costs of living.

Exactly. Out of the 8 million barrels of crude and refined products that Russia export every day, now China and India together account for more than 3 million. And this figure may increase further. The Indian government is in talks with Russian counterparts for further discounts to the imports and Chinese government has announced that they are looking forward to fill their strategic oil reserves with Russian crude. On top of that, a large number of Asian nations (Sri Lanka, Pakistan.etc) have expressed interest in Russian crude.

This dependence on crude oil from Russia is indeed quite difficult to avoid. This is because the position of crude oil has become a reference for other countries to continue to produce the food needs of their citizens. Inevitably there will be countries that succumb to the sustainability of their country's economic stability. We are indeed forced not to interfere and continue to run the oil business in order to keep it running according to Russia wishes. There was a big war, not only from a military point of view, crude oil production became the basis for hitting western countries that opposed Russia. This will continue until one of his biggest enemies raises his hand and accepts Russia policy of importing crude oil to restore the ruble's strength.

[DrBeer]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Russia selling oil to Asia count as a backup plan? I read an article claiming that Russia had over $20b in revenue from selling crude oil, which is a 50% increase just for 2022. On the other hand, Europe is suffering from immense inflation and excessive gas prices, burdening both whole nations who are forced to implement measures to tackle the excessive costs of living.

Exactly. Out of the 8 million barrels of crude and refined products that Russia export every day, now China and India together account for more than 3 million. And this figure may increase further. The Indian government is in talks with Russian counterparts for further discounts to the imports and Chinese government has announced that they are looking forward to fill their strategic oil reserves with Russian crude. On top of that, a large number of Asian nations (Sri Lanka, Pakistan.etc) have expressed interest in Russian crude.

That's interesting, I hadn't investigated how much they export to Asian countries, but they are certainly taking advantage of discounted oil. If I remember correctly, the discounted price is at least 20% lower than it's actually trading. With prices only expected to rise, it's actually quite reasonable to opt for discounted oil.

Judging by information from traders, Russian Ural oil and blends are sold at a very significant discount, and the real price of transactions with China is somewhere in the region of $40 per barrel. I won’t say about India, I don’t have data, but I don’t think it’s very different - Russia needs a currency, and China always sets its own conditions, and Russia always fulfills them. Given the pragmatism of China and internal problems in the economy, I do not think that China will buy oil "at a high price". So the sanctions are giving a result, the flow of currency into the Russian Federation is declining.