Bitcoin halving and hardness

[franky1]

its not as simple as you say..

people can leave mining meaning remaining miners get more of the share.
remaining miners might use more efficient (easier/cheaper) asics. thus their costs are lower but the hashwork is the same or they use that efficiency to save more money by turning off some. or they add more when there is less competition because they are getting more reward to afford it.

there are many factors at play.

in the real world you cant just ignore 9 factors to base assumptions on 1 factor. you have to use all 10 factors.

[Yoav_account]

there are many factors at play.

in the real world you cant just ignore 9 factors to base assumptions on 10 factor. you have to use all 10 factors.

What you are saying makes total sense mathematically, and I am sure you are right.

I really am not very knowledgeable here, hence why I stressed in the question ceteris paribus.


If all other things are equal -- number of miners, hashrate, price -- will you need 2x as much energy in order to mine 1 bitcoin after a halving?


I am not a trader, so the heart of the question is not about price. This is just for the purpose of understanding.

[Yoav_account]

I posted this on Reddit and got a bunch of conflicting answers, so thought I may get a clearer answer here.

Am I correct in saying that if the hashrate were to remain the same, bitcoin will be 2x as hard after the 2024 halving as it is now?

Note, I am not talking about the difficulty of the SHA-256 problem needed to mine one block. Rather, I am referring to how hard bitcoin would be as a money/asset, purely from an economics perspective.

Thank you very much.

Are you asking about this by chance?
https://tradesmithdaily.com/educational/bitcoin-is-the-purest-form-of-hard-money-ever-created-2/
or this?
https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/bending-bitcoin-the-principle-of-hard-money-ad577bdfbc14

Yes, exactly. Hard money.

[franky1]

If all other things are equal -- number of miners, hashrate, price -- will you need 2x as much energy in order to mine 1 bitcoin after a halving?


I am not a trader, so the heart of the question is not about price. This is just for the purpose of understanding.

no
the main rule of bitcoin is this

the coin reward is not a calculation of the energy..
its a hard rule of X coins per block..
2016 blocks a fortnight
half X every 210,000 blocks..

the energy usage does not determine coins mined per block. the coins are rewarded at a fixed rate that halves every 210,000 blocks. it does not matter how much hashpower went to it

it doesnt matter if its cpu power blockchain that never used asics or gpu power that never used asics or asic power .. the rule remains..


the effort.. the energy does not determine the coins rewarded. it determines the underlying value people will sell it for.  
the more hard work. the more the coin is worth because people try to refuse to sell at a loss of their hard work/acquisition costs.