Is it a golden cross forming at the beginning in the first half of February?

[GldLnRjng]

https://imgur.com/oQI8mJb

Imgur link (still newbie, no copper membership) to a screenshoot of the chart confronting 50 days SMA and 200 days SMA, showing a steady approach of the 50 MA to the 200 MA that could happen in the first half of February, giving a quick look at the slope of both the curves.
Not an meticulous work methodology, but the main point I'd like to underline is that we didn't appreciated such an approximation since September 2021, which is when the last golden cross occurred, leading to the November 2021 ≈70k$ ATH.

What do you think about it and the quality of SMA crossover monitoring as a TA tool?

EDIT: Sorry for the messy title of the post, was a bit distracted and hadn't noticed

[Edwardard]

What do you think about it and the quality of SMA crossover monitoring as a TA tool?

It is not that reliable since it is just another lagging indicator (following the price with a delay) like anything else. Meanwhile (guess you missed it), if you notice we are about to get a death cross on the weekly for the first time in btc's entire price history. So, which one are you going to trust now ? Potential daily golden cross or the weekly red flag? Both are higher tfs and equally important.
Fundamentally speaking, we are getting inflation down slowly but the stronger rally will happen once fed decides to cut down on interest rates. 1st feb meeting is the decider for me now. Will decide which cross to trust on that day

[GldLnRjng]

Your guess is right, I missed that information. However, as I'm seeing it right now, the positive correction of the last weeks slowed the fall of the short-term MA and a consistent uptrend, maybe carried by FOMC positive announcements on interest rates/inflation/recession, could help dodging the dead cross but yeah, if the golden cross seems to be forming, the dead cross seems to actually happen so I guess we'll see.

Very interesting times to observe by the way.

[andyfibe]

https://imgur.com/oQI8mJb

Imgur link (still newbie, no copper membership) to a screenshoot of the chart confronting 50 days SMA and 200 days SMA, showing a steady approach of the 50 MA to the 200 MA that could happen in the first half of February, giving a quick look at the slope of both the curves.
Not an meticulous work methodology, but the main point I'd like to underline is that we didn't appreciated such an approximation since September 2021, which is when the last golden cross occurred, leading to the November 2021 ≈70k$ ATH.

What do you think about it and the quality of SMA crossover monitoring as a TA tool?

Perhaps this indicator is not so reliable, but in combination with others, the overall picture becomes more or less clear.

[Husires]

Your analysis is logical, as the price has overcome the 200-day simple moving average at less than $20,000, but we still need to break the 200-week simple moving average, which represents $24,500, to confirm the bullish level, which is something that is happening so far.

There are indicators that support this trend, such as keeping the price lower than realized price for a long period, longer than the previous sessions.

Img Source

All that the data confirms is that we have reached the bottom, or that we are very close to it, and when prices reach breakeven levels, the possibility of the golden cross is diminishing.

Img Source

[OcTradism]

It is not that reliable since it is just another lagging indicator (following the price with a delay) like anything else. Meanwhile (guess you missed it), if you notice we are about to get a death cross on the weekly for the first time in btc's entire price history. So, which one are you going to trust now ? Potential daily golden cross or the weekly red flag? Both are higher tfs and equally important.

Look wider, Bitcoin is always bullish so that I don't mind about golden cross, death cross. With actual Bitcoin hodlers, they don't let their emotion uncontrollable and make panic decision with golden cross or death cross.

I agree with you that those crosses are very lagging indicators.

Fundamentally speaking, we are getting inflation down slowly but the stronger rally will happen once fed decides to cut down on interest rates. 1st feb meeting is the decider for me now. Will decide which cross to trust on that day

Interest rate won't be increases shortly but gradually so if FED want to cut it down, they will do it gradually too. So far, FED has yet announced any signal that they will cut it down. I believe they will continue to increase it in 2023 but with much slower increasing rate than in 2022.

When we see on media that FED are considering to cut down interest rate, it will take a few months, a half of year to have actual cut down.

[GldLnRjng]

Golden cross finally.

Yesterday the 50SMA crossed the 200SMA for the first time since September 2021. This could be the beginning of a bull run. By the way it's legit to assume that markets will be, at least at the beginning, cautious, since, as Edwardard recalled, a death cross on the weekly frame is also coming, for the first time of the history of Bitcoin.
We don't know which of the two events will impose itself on the other, they might even cancel each other out in a crab action.

Macro is not exactly by the side of bulls, with interest rates that, even with a slower ratio, keep raising and a strong American job market (something very positive in the overall, obviously), that will allow FED to adopt strict policies for a longer period of time.
Forecasts on inflation are good by the way, with milder prospects of a recession. Even if there won't be a QE comeback, economic stability, decreasing inflation and, sooner or later, decreasing interest rates could favor risk-on investments in the mid-long term.

I think the moment that will determine whether or not we are on a bull run will be the FED pivot, wich is something that will inevitably happen no later than Q3 2024.

That said we need to observe the outcomes of the upcoming death cross. In order to avoid it there should be a sudden, great pump capable of inverting the trend.

Basing on the behaviour of the price during the last golden cross, what could happen is a retracement to 19/20k that could last for the remaining days of February, until the beginning of a steady up action by the fall of february/beginning of March, leading to the conversion of the various resistance levels to support levels, pointing to the last ATH.

Another scenario is the comeback to pre-FTX crisis levels for an indefinite period of time (until macro gets better).

Last, markets could just ignore the signals of one of the two crosses, leading both to a new low (as bears predict) or directly to a new important pump from this week.

[tbct_mt2]

Your analysis is logical, as the price has overcome the 200-day simple moving average at less than $20,000, but we still need to break the 200-week simple moving average, which represents $24,500, to confirm the bullish level, which is something that is happening so far.

There are indicators that support this trend, such as keeping the price lower than realized price for a long period, longer than the previous sessions.

Bitcoin will have another mini bull run before a big bull run and I think it will be a similar mini bull run like 2019 mini bull run. Very possible Bitcoin will try to reclaim $30,000 with this run before any correction to pull it back to likely $20,000.

All that the data confirms is that we have reached the bottom, or that we are very close to it, and when prices reach breakeven levels, the possibility of the golden cross is diminishing.

The $15,000 and $16,000 look like a bottom range but I don't forget what happened in 2020 March when Bitcoin had a last serious bottom test before it starts a big bull run. Maybe in later months 2023 or early 2024, Bitcoin will have another serious bottom test like that.

I think it is good to hold Bitcoin and wait for $30,000 but if anybody has more capital source in coming months, they can wait to buy Bitcoin at price around $20,000 that is good for dollar cost averaging for 2024 halving and a consequent big bull run.