SOFT LANDING LIE

[Tytanowy Janusz]

High inflation. Interest rates at 15 years high, war, 0-covid policy in china, broken supply chains, energy crisis. Everyone expected a recession. Everyone expected a crash. Everyone expected the asset price to go down. Bitcoin to reach 10k$.
There was only one thing bothering me. If everyone expects declines, who is supposed to lose on it? Who is the preson that will jump out of the window at the bottom? It seams that everyone will be taking profits from shorts that day. A few days ago I got the answer and I wanted to share it with you.
Just after SP500 broke a downward trend and the internet was flooded with such articles:

"A Bull Market Is Coming. Here's How to Prepare in 2023."
"Jim Cramer says we're in a bull market, so buy on the dip"
"Are we in a new bull market for stocks?"
Here on bitcointalk, everyone is saying goodbye to bear markt too.

And all supported by a soft landing narrative:

"Analysis: Fed feeds Wall Street's soft landing hopes"
"U.S. jobs report breathes life into Fed's 'soft landing' scenario"

Soft landing - Avoiding recession thanks to the great work of the central bankers. They took here, gave there, and suddenly the problem was magically solved. At least that's what they want us to bealive in.

You know what's crazy about this?

"Fed chairman projects 'soft landing' for U.S. economy - Business - International Herald Tribune" - https://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/15/business/worldbusiness/15iht-fed.4605930.html  - from February 2007! this is an article that, with some minor adjustments, might as well come out today. We have exacly the same narrative now. February 2007...



Just over half a year later, after "soft ladning narrative", the index plunged by 60% and the world faced the GFC (great financial crisis)

Suddenly I found the answer to who will lose ... as usual everyone. Those who now predicted the crash will lose on shorts, which are just about to trigger a margin call, and those who believe in soft landing will lose in six months on the crash, when they will buy on the FED pivot event, at the top of rally. They are probably still waiting with their investment because of "buy the pivot' narrative that is also very popular.

“The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time.”
— Jesse Lauriston Livermore

Maybe we can avoid a recession and a solid stock market crash. I don't think anything is 100% certain. I just think it's highly likely its not over yet and we'll get hit really hard once again. Personally, as I have written many times on the forum, I expect a few green months before more serious declines:

translated to english
In my opinion, the macro shows that max March-April and probably even earlier the FED will make the so-called pivot and start lowering rates. What's strange, most of investors count on pump right after, but this is probably only due to the fact that most lose on the market and most remember the last decade only and remember that when the FED started talking about raising rates, the market started to fall, so after pivot the markets should start to grow. Simple logic but wrong. Historically after FED pivot market crash significantly. Most of the crash of 2000 and 2008 happened when the Fed was forced to cut rates. Same thing in 1981. The market is pricing in the future, so it's pricing in policy easing right now, and when it comes to that, it's going to be "buy the rumour, sell the fact." So it's possible that we have maybe 4 months of gains left before the next declines. This fits in beautifully with the "Santa's Rally" and the "January Effect". great time to take profit in April just before "sell in may and go away" and before the 2023 crash caused by the recession. If BTC wont pump until then, the only things that can save bitcoin from crashing lower is that crypto will finally stop fallowing US stock indexes.

Maybe not until April, as I wrote in December, and a few more months? Maybe Sp500 will break a new ATH in these few months and bitcoin over 40k? The exact timing is just hard to guess. At the moment, however, everything indicates that soft landing is a lie and the crash awaits us in 2023. Maybe in October, considered the month of crashes?
"The October effect refers to the psychological anticipation that financial declines and stock market crashes are more likely to occur during this month than any other month."
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/09/october-effect.asp

Why is the Fed lying? Because it must, otherwise the crash will be much stronger, because it will be intensified by human fear. They themselves mention it in this document:
"Nevertheless, as FDR might have pointed out, it can only make things worse if investors not only fear the prospect of a recession, but at the same time, are spooked by that fear itself,"
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/dont-fear-the-yield-curve-reprise-20220325.html

Don't fomo, don't buy on the "fed pivot" event, don't trust mass media, don't trust FED. Its possible we are in 1970-1980 type of markets right now. 10 years of going sideways with new higher highs and lower lows. They will try to make you buy the top and sell the bottom.

[KiaKia]

I don't believe in both sides but most times I always get a better result by not following the hoards, when it's seem like the world is saying same thing, the opposite always happens. I can't lose my head again, not me, so I prepared for both sides, whatever happens will favour me.

I prepare for a major unexpected pullback and also a big recovery, I was here at 17k and still took advantage of 15k, so far there is no regret in my world because my crypto portfolio is smiling back at me for taking action.

Still, I have put aside stable coins enough to take advantage of maybe a possible pullback.

[EarnOnVictor]

No one is making anyone "buy the top and sell the bottom," this conclusion is anti-people and unprofessional. I've been in the world of financial market trading and investment for a while now, and, if there is a country that is top-notch in response to situations and in defence of their country and citizen, and also the world at large, I would say the US is number one.

I'm not a Yankee and I don't know the resentment you have toward the nation, but this article is not necessary, FED will always act based on what is at hand, they might even promise or envisaged what is not possible, only time tells as they are not perfect. And with reality, they are acting decisively and professionally in my understanding of economics.

Now, back to your conclusion, no one is forcing you to act on your decisions, you have to know what you are doing and act rightly based on the resources at your disposal.

Knowledge is power, seek it more to act rightly. And be sure that in either a bad or good economy or even a tricky circumstance, a good decision could still be made if you know what you are doing.

[Poker Player]

Don't fomo, don't buy on the "fed pivot" event, don't trust mass media, don't trust FED. Its possible we are in 1970-1980 type of markets right now. 10 years of going sideways with new higher highs and lower lows. They will try to make you buy the top and sell the bottom.

It doesn't matter. The point is to buy assets knowing what you are buying for, regardless of the noise of the market. Even if we are in the equivalent of 1970, I will continue to accumulate Bitcoin and other assets. I invest for the long term. Very long term. Just wait for this Carter-like guy we have to go fuck himself and for the next Reagan to come along. In the meantime I will continue to invest and reinvest.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

“The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time.”
— Jesse Lauriston Livermore

Oh my....if anyone is looking for a few excellent books on old-school stock trading, Livermore is your guy. 

And OP, I haven't heard that term soft landing in years.  It might have been before the 2007 craziness, but I do remember the phrase being bandied about on mainstream media for a while.  I don't think it meant much of anything back then, and I don't think anyone really knows what the hell is going on with the economy right now, much less where it's headed.

We survived Covid and all of those mysterious supply chain issues, and I've heard inflation is slowing down so who the hell knows?  What I do know is that as soon as any market starts moving upward, you'll get headlines that are bullish.  And when shit's crashing, all the headlines are extremely bearish.  Same-old, same-old.

[davis196]

The financial markets are full with bulls, bears and sheep. The ones, who always lose are the sheep. Why? Because they are panic selling every time they hear some "prophet of the Apocalypse" spreading "doom and gloom" FUD nonsense.
I'm not overly optimistic, but I'm not too pessimistic as well, when it comes to analyzing the financial markets(including crypto) and the global economy. There will be good times and bad times, let's not throw ourselves under the buss when the bad times occur. Those, who survive the bad times will be witnessing the good times. I don't know whether or not this "soft landing" theory is a lie. The Federal Reserve took the right measures in the last few months, by rising the interest rates, but this won't stop the money machine from printing.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

It doesn't matter. The point is to buy assets knowing what you are buying for, regardless of the noise of the market. Even if we are in the equivalent of 1970, I will continue to accumulate Bitcoin and other assets.

I think its good to rethink your strategy. 1970-1980 have a lot of similarities to present. If market is about to act the same and bitcoin will fallow stocks than your strategy will yell 0% up until 2035 while your savings will lose 70-80% of purchasing power (aggregated 12 year inflation). That's what happened in 1970-1980. So saying that you don't care and you will continue to accumulate just shows that I'm right with this:

translated to english
In my opinion, the macro shows that max March-April and probably even earlier the FED will make the so-called pivot and start lowering rates. What's strange, most of investors count on pump right after, but this is probably only due to the fact that most lose on the market and most remember the last decade only

Decade in which investing was super easy. Just buy the dip and wait max 6-12 month to take profit. Are you ready to wait 12 years to see green numbers on your trades while goods/real estate/cars price goes x3-x5? Are you sure you won't need this money right at the bottom in f.e. 2030?

I'm just saying that investing won't be that easy in next decade (at least that's what seams to be the most likely scenario).
There are also a possitive scenarios but in my opinion less likely. For example scenario in which bitcoin will fallow gold price and gold will act like in 1980 (pump 30x). all i'm trying to point out is that stategies that worked in 2010-2022 may not work in 2023-2035. Just be carrefour. Take profit, invest only the amount you will not need in next decade (not 1 year like it was before).

and I don't think anyone really knows what the hell is going on with the economy right now, much less where it's headed.
We survived Covid and all of those mysterious supply chain issues, and I've heard inflation is slowing down so who the hell knows?

Noting is certain. There are only a propabilities.

I think the market is like a swimming pool and someone just do a bomb jump. What we're seeing right now is the first wave followed by a rebound, a pullback, before the next wave until the water surface calms down. The most likely is that the disinflation we see is nothing more than a bull whip effect which is a temporary phenomenon.
Last two high inflations periods in US (1940 and 1970) had 3-4 inflation/disinflation cycles. From 1967 to 1983 inflation pumped to 6.2% dumped to 2.9%, pumped to 12.2%, dumped to 4.9%, pumped to 14.8%, dumped to 1.1%, pumped to 6.3%.

[DaveF]

Boring, let me know when the interest rates get back to the mid 2000s or late 1990s. You know when the economy was doing well and people just could not borrow money because they felt like with with no plan.

There is no such thing as free money and every time you see someone who complains about the interest rate going up you should only think of 3 things.

1) Some fat looser sitting in their moms basement who now has to borrow a few more dollars from mom since they don't have and can't get a job.
2) Someone living in a trailer living off the government dime.
3) People who started a business without a plan and have no idea how to run a business if they actually have to pay money to get money to run it.

Money is not free, and if you think the government, the fed or anyone else should give it to you for free then you are just a leach on society.

Yes, during things like the pandemic or an economic implosion like 2007/8 then cheap or free money is fine to keep the economy going. Before and after that, nope. Otherwise you just have a bunch of people who don't understand how money works who then cry that the government is mean and not giving them free money anymore.

-Dave

[Tytanowy Janusz]

There is no such thing as free money and every time you see someone who complains about the interest rate going up you should only think of 3 things.

1) Some fat looser sitting in their moms basement who now has to borrow a few more dollars from mom since they don't have and can't get a job.
2) Someone living in a trailer living off the government dime.
3) People who started a business without a plan and have no idea how to run a business if they actually have to pay money to get money to run it.

Money is not free, and if you think the government, the fed or anyone else should give it to you for free then you are just a leach on society.

I agree with you. In my opinion interest rates should be equal to inflation +2%. When real interest rates are negative (lower than inflation) its equal to stealing. It does not stimulate the economy, it only causes missalocation of resources and  malinvestment (for example take a loan for 2% and buy real estate that grows 10% per year only due to inflation - housing bubble is ready). Even leaving decision about interest rates to the market is also an interresting idea.  
But no matter what we think about that ... Its not topic where we should discuss it. Its not topic about how high interest rates should be and offend those who think otherwise. Its a topic about current economy situation and expected impact on markets.

[adaseb]

Well so far it does seem like a soft landing. The inflation numbers are down. Everything was going good. Crypto and stocks had a great January however then we got the horrible employment numbers. The labor market is still very tight. And the fed doesn’t like this.

Tomorrow there is going to be a conference and we will see what he says.
Most likely he will say we need to wait until CPI in the middle of feb. After that we should get a good gauge what the following fed rate will be. Bonds are always dumping as a result of this news.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Well so far it does seem like a soft landing. The inflation numbers are down. Everything was going good.

Inflation is going down because of a bullwhip effect and a recession that we are most likely already in. Thats normal and temporary. Sooner or later (most likely later becasue its a slow process) we will see a trend reversal and inflation going back up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvyt1d6119U&t=981s&ab_channel=RebelCapitalist