Is "Sell in May" really a good idea (in the case of Bitcoin)?

[Lucius]

~snip~
I mean going up 10% is not a huge deal in the crypto world, we could have that, also it means that we could have 10% days in a row, two of them and suddenly you are at over 70k once again. This is going to be quite important, we need to realize that it is not going to end up all that easy. This should be an important deal, we can't really make it work any other way, it will take some time but it will be important for everyone in the end.

For those experienced who know that Bitcoin is extremely volatile, a 10% or 30% drop in price in one day will not mean too much in the sense that they will panic about it, but there are so many weak hands in the market who cannot accept that they have lost 10% or more on their investment - although as long as they don't sell, they haven't actually lost anything.

As we can see yesterday and today, the market reacts to the news about all the companies that bought BTC through spot ETFs and whose data became public - which is a classic reaction of those who do not think for themselves but always make their decisions based on such news.

[d5000]

I'd like to add a little comment based on the current market situation: If the pump which started yesterday (and today retroceded again a bit) takes us to an epic candle of 80000-90000 or more still in May, it may not be a bad idea to sell in May

I know FOMO will then set in again, but I'd would rather FOMO in the high 50s or low 60s because ... it could be actually the last time we see these prices, if everything happens similarly to previous bull markets. Until now there are also a lot of similarities to the January pump/dump, where we saw first an epic high of 49k and then retroceded more than 20% to 38k, then slowly and increasingly faster moving up again until finding a new halt in the low 50s.

Assuming the bull market continues, 80-90k could be a price level which we could revisit a couple of times, because of a very likely resistance near 100k.

But everything depends, in my opinion, on the actual market situation. For example, if in late May the 73k ATH was broken and then, contrary to expectations, a steady but relatively slow upmove started, then I would not sell. Because then the 100k could be broken quite soon.

[Lanatsa]

~snip~
I mean going up 10% is not a huge deal in the crypto world, we could have that, also it means that we could have 10% days in a row, two of them and suddenly you are at over 70k once again. This is going to be quite important, we need to realize that it is not going to end up all that easy. This should be an important deal, we can't really make it work any other way, it will take some time but it will be important for everyone in the end.

For those experienced who know that Bitcoin is extremely volatile, a 10% or 30% drop in price in one day will not mean too much in the sense that they will panic about it, but there are so many weak hands in the market who cannot accept that they have lost 10% or more on their investment - although as long as they don't sell, they haven't actually lost anything.

As we can see yesterday and today, the market reacts to the news about all the companies that bought BTC through spot ETFs and whose data became public - which is a classic reaction of those who do not think for themselves but always make their decisions based on such news.

If someone getting used to trade with stocks or with forex then these movements would really be something that will shock you or will definitely be banging or punching up your monitor on the time that you have seen such movement but just like on what we are seeing on crypto space then these movements are really just that ordinary days in crypto. Speaking back on those sentiments like "Sell in May" and looking with those charts about monthly gains or loses in percentage then it would really be that hard to make out some patterns but obviously its not really that something bad to look up with these numbers
and you could really be able to make out some analysis basing up on what we are seeing. Usually prices will really be neither be affected with sudden sentiments or news or doesnt have any reason at all behind.
Sell or not for this month of May would really be just that depending on you because not all would really be getting in line on what those charts been saying. We've seen recently the price is shooting up
back again and this is what makes the situation even more harder to guess up.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Well, in my opinion, "sell in May" can be of interest to those people who are only investing in Bitcoin without actually making a decision about the price at which they want to sell. Since I started accumulating Bitcoin at an earlier price of $20k and I have made a decision to sell when the price gets above $80k, that means I don't have any concern to sell Bitcoin in the month of May, but someone who doesn't have any target price at which they want to sell can sell this month if they go by this old ancient trader myth. I am not in a rush to sell my coin, so I will hold on till I reach my target price, even if it doesn't happen this year. 

[Lucius]

I'd like to add a little comment based on the current market situation: If the pump which started yesterday (and today retroceded again a bit) takes us to an epic candle of 80000-90000 or more still in May, it may not be a bad idea to sell in May

I wonder if this pump is caused by the fact that we have had positive inflows into spot ETFs for four days in a row (and that hasn't happened in a long time), or if the market reacted to the news about the public announcement of all those US banks/companies that invested billions of $ in BTC through ETFs. Maybe it's a combination of both, but now the question is how long it will last.

Assuming the bull market continues, 80-90k could be a price level which we could revisit a couple of times, because of a very likely resistance near 100k.
~snip~

I think the same way, because the closer we get to $100k, the harder it will be to keep the positions won if we assume that people will take profits on the way up. I don't know if it can be seen/verified, but are there sales walls that can show how much BTC is for sale in the $80k to $100k range at the moment?

[EluguHcman]

So what do you think? Is "Sell in May" a good idea in 2024?

If we have to consider the market cap historical price of Bitcoin in 2024 in decision making to paragraph when good to sell, let us understand that every Investors would always want to sell at a higher market price.

So to me, if this May would not be able to beat the ATH @ $76K which we experienced before the halving, then I think we missed that good selling chance and selling on a cheaper price since the may could not surpass the ATH is not worth it.
So, let us just keep hodling.
I hope you also understand that regretting mood of resisting to sell at a promising price and then finally you sells below the price. So, while we are still in the month of May, let us see what good market price may come out of it.
Although, this discussion is for the short term investors because the long term Investors would always stay unpanick and unsentimental nomatter the nature of the market value.

[d5000]

I wonder if this pump is caused by the fact that we have had positive inflows into spot ETFs for four days in a row (and that hasn't happened in a long time), or if the market reacted to the news about the public announcement of all those US banks/companies that invested billions of $ in BTC through ETFs. Maybe it's a combination of both, but now the question is how long it will last.

The most convincing reason I heard is that it was caused largely of a decreasing inflation (and thus: interest rate) expectation in the US since the last Fed meeting. Basically I think it could have been contributed that stock markets are rallying worldwide, which is usually also a good sign for Bitcoin because it shows that people are willing to invest in riskiear assets.

I think also that the price didn't threaten again to fall under 60k significantly has also contributed. So there is more confidence in the current price level, and fear of another dump under the recent 56k lows are waning away.

I'm however not sure if this all is enough to get a new ATH soon. It could also consolidate again below the old ATH of 69k, but a bit higher (around 65-68k) for some time, but that would actually also be bullish in my opinion. A "quadruple top" in the 71-73k area due to a short and unsustainable spike would be more bearish.

I don't know if it can be seen/verified, but are there sales walls that can show how much BTC is for sale in the $80k to $100k range at the moment?

I haven't found such a wide orderbook aggregator. Most go up to 75k approximately, like on Coinglass which goes up to around 78k for spot (it goes up to 100k for futures, but there are almost no orders in the 80-100k range). I think for more you'd need an API account directly on the exchanges. But as in the 75-78k area there are already relatively few coins for sale I think that currently that won't be that different for over 80k. I think people will post their orders in this region once we go a bit higher, e.g. over 70k again.

[Lucius]

The most convincing reason I heard is that it was caused largely of a decreasing inflation (and thus: interest rate) expectation in the US since the last Fed meeting. Basically I think it could have been contributed that stock markets are rallying worldwide, which is usually also a good sign for Bitcoin because it shows that people are willing to invest in riskiear assets.

This is something that is definitely being talked about a lot, and I hope that interest rates in the US will go down as soon as possible, because here in the EU, most such decisions are made only after the US, and considering that I live in a country that depends a lot on tourism, the prices of products and services usually go wild in the summer months because the demand generated by tourists is an excellent opportunity for extra earnings.

As I can see, it is already the fifth day in a row that we have recorded positive inlows in spot ETFs, so even though it is not even close to what happened in February and March, it still has an evident effect on the price.

I haven't found such a wide orderbook aggregator.
~snip~

I sincerely doubted that such a thing existed, maybe some people have such information, but do not share it publicly. It seems to me that we could see the real action only in 3-4 months, but it is possible that the old patterns will not repeat themselves as most expect.

[dzungmobile]

Often one reads the ancient trader myth "Sell in May and go away!" in a Bitcoin or crypto context.

So what do you think? Is "Sell in May" a good idea in 2024?

It starts with traditional markets and I have different view on it like most of people who believe in this mythical saying.

Capital in society will switch from one or some markets to another or other markets. People mostly don't have enough patience and discipline to keep their capital inactive for a long time.

If they do things like "Sell in May and go away" in, for example, stock market, they will find another market as a new destination for their capital. It can be Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency market.

[justdimin]

I'd like to add a little comment based on the current market situation: If the pump which started yesterday (and today retroceded again a bit) takes us to an epic candle of 80000-90000 or more still in May, it may not be a bad idea to sell in May

I wonder if this pump is caused by the fact that we have had positive inflows into spot ETFs for four days in a row (and that hasn't happened in a long time), or if the market reacted to the news about the public announcement of all those US banks/companies that invested billions of $ in BTC through ETFs. Maybe it's a combination of both, but now the question is how long it will last.

That is definitely a good reason, I did not know that we had this, usually I do not check what the ETF world is doing and honestly I do not know where you guys are finding out that data, is there like some website that shows how much money went in or out of ETF world for specific days? If there is one, I would like to learn where you guys are checking in.

Back to the topic at hand, if there has been four days in a row of positive movement there, then I guess that it will definitely be something to benefit you as well, it should definitely be something that could grant you a greater result. I prefer to keep it in just the crypto world, but the wall street world getting into definitely helped us along the way during this period.

[Lucius]

@justdimin, one of the forum members posted this link where you can see interesting information about spot ETFs (US). There are probably some other sources, but I think you can see all the important information on this link.

[dansus021]

According the past data May might gonna see a correction but according you picture we still see 1% profit from the past month why don't we stack more bitcoin and sell it next month or next year when the bitcoin reach new all time high.

So Sell in May that totally fine if your position already made up around 30% takes your profit a little and buy more "if" the dip really happen in this month

[Sebas.tian]

Yes, if the price of Bitcoin increases above $75,000 is a good idea to release your Bitcoin to make a passive income in this month of May, because market price is dynamic which anything can change in any month, or year for the price of Bitcoin to break correction for investors to witnesses with their two eyes. There is no way the price of Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in this month of May, which is the major target of many investors but if the price increases higher above this current price in the market, I think some investors will still sell to increase their income as they did last two months when the price of Bitcoin increased to $73,238. I believe, it will be more profitable if you can continue holding your Bitcoin till the end of this year before you can release them for sale, because the price will increase higher before the end of this year.

[BlackBoss_]

Source: Newhedge

Cryptorank.io has its table for Bitcoin ROIs in monthly, quarterly too and it seems they built up the tables long time before Newhedge.io team did it for their website.

https://cryptorank.io/price/bitcoin

[kentrolla]

This may stand true for time being but not everytime just like I believed in a myth that December being worst month for Bitcoin just by checking historic date but this year t turned out to be false and similarly I think we may see the month of "MAY" may not be sell in may month any longer as we cannot narrowed it down on one analysis or historic data as there are just too many factors deciding the market trend.

[davis196]

There's no problem with selling BTC in May at 65K USD, since you have bought at 20-25K USD in May 2023(I don't even remember the BTC price back in May 2023). You could even HODL and don't sell in May. Even if the price does down in the summer, it will most likely go back up in the autumn or during the winter. I also agree with the theory that the Bitcoin market becomes a little bit boring and stagnant during the summer, but I don't see this as a major problem. A big price crash could happen in every season, it doesn't matter if it's summer or winter.
Timing the market is a mission impossible for more than 95% of the traders, so there's no point of overthinking and overanalyzing the seasonal  patterns of the Bitcoin price.

[goldkingcoiner]

Stay clever, sell never.


That rhyme sounds more like something that would help people not lose out on their investment. Selling in may just because of some superstitious trading thing is ridiculous, and as OP has shown us, makes no logical sense...

[dzungmobile]

Stay clever, sell never.


That rhyme sounds more like something that would help people not lose out on their investment. Selling in may just because of some superstitious trading thing is ridiculous, and as OP has shown us, makes no logical sense...

It depends on strategies for capital use and investment plan. If the capital used for investment, is a special assigned part for investment only and the investor has another part for use, no need to sell in May and go away.

Additionally, whales usually to understand psychology of the market very well. They understand how the crowd usually do, like believe in "Sell in May and go away" then they do their manipulation oppositely.

If people have good fund management, individual financial management and have detailed plan for investment, they will not mind about what happen in a single month, like May.

Are you ready for the Bitcoin bull market? What's your plan? Some ideas for you ^newbies

[aoluain]

Its always interesting to see that monthly chart for each year posted by d5000 in the op,
but my view is that it all goes out the window when its only a month post halving. We are
in a Bull market now so I'm not selling. I dont trade so this saying doesnt apply to me specially
that we are in a Bull market post halving.

So what do you think? Is "Sell in May" a good idea in 2024?

When it comes to Bitcoin, I would focus more on the four year cycle. It’s backed by mathematics and has a proven track record. This year in particular with the halving, I don’t think it makes a lot of sense to be selling right now. You’ll regret it in a year. Stocks are more prone to an annual cycle of movements due to being more effected by the flow of money to the average person.

og the op made thread yesterday and today we are whaling.

hodl hodl hodl.

Funny that!

The market seems to be holding so we should indeed HODL too!