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Author Topic: Economics 101. Stagflation.  (Read 316 times)
d5000
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September 16, 2023, 02:44:26 AM
 #41

In Argentina there's a particularly strong stagflation happening now. While a big part can be explained by "money printing"* I think there is another very important factor: inflationary inertia due to a "vicious cycle". This cycle not only includes the well known "price salary spiral" but has some more factors linked to the expectations of a continuously devaluating currency. It is composed by the following phases:

0) (see below)
1) Goods rise in price in the retail sector, because there was an increase in the wholesale price and additionally the retail merchants want to preserve their margins.
2) The consumers don't lower their consumption as they already expect price increases, instead they strive for higher salaries creating a price-salary spiral, which impacts production costs, but these cost increases alone only would explain about 30-50% of the real inflation rate.
3) When the consumers get their salary, they invest a part of it in foreign currencies (primarily the US dollar) because local currency options (like fixed bank deposits) have a meager ROI and they believe the dollar will beform better. Also, companies which import goods try to pay them as early as possible.
4) The value of the local currency decreases (compared to the dollar) due to the low demand (and high demand for foreign currencies) explained by the two mechanisms in step 3.
5) Currency devaluation leads to higher import prices, and thus goods with a high proportion of imported parts rise in price.
6) Steps 2 and 5 creates pressure to production prices, and they rise.
7) / 0) As a consequence, also wholesale prices rise.

(The cycle starts again, Step 7 is also Step 0)

While both the price-salary spiral, the currency devaluation spiral and money printing can explain about 50% of the price increase (or more, in the case of imported goods), the rest is explainable by the fact that all parts in the supply chain continuously rise their prices more than they would be forced to, to hedge against price increases in their own supply chain. So we have, in addition to these two mechanisms, a lot of small price increases have to be added, from the raw material producer to the retailer, with the wholesale sector probably being the most "greedy" because they are often big companies with high market power.

This creates an inflation inertia. Consumers (including the government) could stop it if they consumed even less, and thus price elasticity increases which makes it difficult to rise prices more. But neither the government nor private consumers have incentives to do this.

Argentina is an extreme example, but I can imagine that long-term stagflation works approximately the same in other countries too. Short-term stagflation, in contrast, is mostly caused by the factors Wind_FURY has cited in the Investopedia article.


It's laughable that the people I talk to that remain in denial of the high-probability of Stagflation that's going to happen in many regions around the world.
I think what those "people in denial" criticize is more the "inflation" part than the "stagnation" part. Of course you could argue that if you had 7% inflation with some economic growth and some months later you have 5% with zero growth, then you're "tending towards stagflation". However, in this case it's likely that the inflation will continue to decrease more due to the economic slowdown, if there are no new external shocks (this could be the case due to the rising oil price for example) or if inflation inertia (like I explained) has already catched on.



*there are three different mechanisms for that in Argentina, not only QE (Central bank buying government bonds) but also direct credits (ATs) and something called "giro de utilidades" which gives the Central Bank the option to directly "give away" money to the government as a gift in months where the currency devaluates. This is of course a quite inflationary process as it's a kind of vicious cycle.

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icalical
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September 16, 2023, 03:06:09 PM
 #42

Okay, I have a question here.
In the past, let's say even a couple of centuries ago, humanity was still battling natural forces, unable to produce enough for everyone. If there was a drought, a flood, or something else, it was a catastrophe because the already limited resources got even more scarce, resulting in even more people dying. But starting from the industrial revolution, we did a major breakthrough which allowed to finally overcome the issue of not producing enough. Growth was very important to finally reach a point of abundance.
Now, the thing is, we've reached that point. Globally, we produce enough food to feed everyone, enough clothes, enough medicine. Perhaps not enough housing, but also a lot of vacant housing and all the resources needed to build more. But we're still stuck in thinking that slower growth is a bad thing, and no growth is terrible.
Isn't the issue no longer about how much we produce, but how we use and distribute what we produce? So doesn't it mean that we could, hypothetically, significantly improve the lives of people without any economic growth necessary? So couldn't at least some issues be resolved by focusing on redistribution and rethinking priorities?

You have a valid question here, but the condition you explain will only happened if the world is in ideal situation, but that's not the case, nothing is ideal. Unfortunately most of the world is run in capitalistic manner, everyone looking for profit, you need money to make money, the more money you have more money you can make. Thus result in bigger economic gap. People who own most of the housing/real estate is people with much capital, all they want is to get more profit, they will not sell lower, let alone give it for free. On the other hand, the people who need the housing doesn't have enough money that is needed to buy the house. Same happened in other commodity, seller want more profit, buyer don't have enough money, and those sellers won't sell it cheaper because they already have much money it's not like they need to sell it immediately, they can wait, they think have enough money to spend until they got the ideal price.

Wind_FURY (OP)
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September 18, 2023, 03:30:40 PM
 #43

It's laughable that the people I talk to that remain in denial of the high-probability of Stagflation that's going to happen in many regions around the world.

In Europe, Christine Lagarde raised interest rates again, it's the tenth hike and she won't truly confirm when she'll stop. That will slow down most European economies. But in other parts of the world, China's Stimulus and the supply cuts for Crude Oil will cause higher fuel prices and therefore more inflation.

Stagflation will not merely be a narrative.

This. Interest rates affect many Europeans's family budgets in a negative fashion. Frankly, I'm confused how rising interest rates can fight inflation?


Because inflation has always been a monetary phenomenon, caused by money printing and too much government spending. When there's inflation, it's a symptom that there's too much supply of money in circulation. What the Central Bank does to control it is to tighten monetary policy.

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People pay more for their mortgage so they need to earn more, charge more for their work or service and voila: we get more inflation! Fuel prices are soaring too, accelerating the inflation even more. Additionally, there are rumors of the next Covid wave coming soon... so hold on to your butts, gentlemen!


It's either the Central Bank tightens aggressively to cause the recession themselves, or inflation will cause one for the Central Bank. And it's better if the Central Bank causes one early while the people still have their savings. Plus because inflation will eat up people's savings sooner or later, and when this happens, the economy will slow down, BUT inflation will still be high = Stagflation.

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