Actual/Realized cap

[cipherer]

Question:
Realized cap is an important indicator for evaluating market price.
Many Biitcoins have naver moved on chain.
Is there a realized cap availabble for Bitcoins that have moved >= 1 time?

Many Bitcoins are lost, it's hard to calculate how many.
How is the formula for calculating the lost Bitcoin?

[OcTradism]

Many Bitcoins are lost, it's hard to calculate how many.
How is the formula for calculating the lost Bitcoin?

You can estimate lost bitcoins by very long time inactive UTXOs, but it's estimation and it's not accurate number for actual lost bitcoin. Inactive Bitcoin UTXOs many years ago can turn to be active and these coins are not lost bitcoins.

You can use HOLD waves and make your estimation.
https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/hodl-waves/

Lost Bitcoin: 3.7 million Bitcoin are probably gone forever. You can uncertainty in the article title, it's "probably gone forever".

[Ambatman]

Like has been said by the person upstairs.
You can calculate total number of inactive Bitcoin within a timeframe
But can not calculate the total number of Lost Coin.
Many are holding, some lost could be accessed and while certain portion are really lost either through losing seedPhrase or dying with nobody been aware of the holding.

To calculate realized Cap, you can access data from Glassnodes https://glassnode.com/ about Coins that haven't moved for a long time.


https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=supply.ActiveMore5YPercent

[Finestream]

Lost Bitcoin: 3.7 million Bitcoin are probably gone forever. You can uncertainty in the article title, it's "probably gone forever".

Exactly, this is crucial because once these Bitcoins are taken out of circulation, they’re no longer part of the available supply. This helps in calculating the realized cap, which is more of a technical metric. For regular investors or traders, though, this might not be essential. What we usually care about is the total supply and how many Bitcoins are left to mine. That’s the kind of data we use to analyze the market and make decisions.

[cipherer]

Many Bitcoins are lost, it's hard to calculate how many.
How is the formula for calculating the lost Bitcoin?

You can estimate lost bitcoins by very long time inactive UTXOs, but it's estimation and it's not accurate number for actual lost bitcoin. Inactive Bitcoin UTXOs many years ago can turn to be active and these coins are not lost bitcoins.

You can use HOLD waves and make your estimation.
https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/hodl-waves/

Lost Bitcoin: 3.7 million Bitcoin are probably gone forever. You can uncertainty in the article title, it's "probably gone forever".

Thank you, very interesting stuff: the hodl-waves, i agree it seems an estimated guess. In every wave-layer there must be a fraction of lost coins, but in older waves the fraction should increase, because of time en e.g. innovation in storage and increasing value of bitcoin. However the function of the wave >10y is constantly increasing in time(if  you turn the wave), this pattern is different for ALL the other waves.
I suggest the wave >10y is significant different, maybe statistical analyses of the waves can determine the lost fraction with a high probability, Thanks again for advice, i will look at it.

[stompix]

To calculate realized Cap, you can access data from Glassnodes https://glassnode.com/ about Coins that haven't moved for a long time.

Coins that have not moved in 15 years are not definitely coins that are lost!
Coins that have moved yesterday might be coins that have been lost!

Nobody in this world would be able to approximate this, not by a very large margin that is proven day after day that is wrong, besides, it doesn't even matter. Market cap and realized market cap are some indicators that mean little, a far more reliable indicator would be to gather all data from major exchanges that have existed for the last decade and look at the inflows and outflows, which would be far more interesting as it would actually tell you how much was invested compared to the current value of those investments.

What we usually care about is the total supply and how many Bitcoins are left to mine. That’s the kind of data we use to analyze the market and make decisions.

Who is this "we" because I've never heard of someone trading based on how many Bitcoins are left to be mined!

[cipherer]

Like has been said by the person upstairs.
You can calculate total number of inactive Bitcoin within a timeframe
But can not calculate the total number of Lost Coin.
Many are holding, some lost could be accessed and while certain portion are really lost either through losing seedPhrase or dying with nobody been aware of the holding.

To calculate realized Cap, you can access data from Glassnodes https://glassnode.com/ about Coins that haven't moved for a long time.


https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=supply.ActiveMore5YPercent

Thanks for answer.
Realized cap is used as parameter for indicating bull-market. Do you agree that it should be adjusted for lost coins?
Otherwe Rel.Cap is too low, and so Market.cap/Real.cap is too high. It cant be calculated, i agree. but statistical analyses may help.

[cipherer]

Lost Bitcoin: 3.7 million Bitcoin are probably gone forever. You can uncertainty in the article title, it's "probably gone forever".

Exactly, this is crucial because once these Bitcoins are taken out of circulation, they’re no longer part of the available supply. This helps in calculating the realized cap, which is more of a technical metric. For regular investors or traders, though, this might not be essential. What we usually care about is the total supply and how many Bitcoins are left to mine. That’s the kind of data we use to analyze the market and make decisions.

Ok, clear, but then people with less knowledge can be mislead by a onadjusted bull-market indicator market.cap/rel. cap. Bitcoin is also behavioural science.

[BlackHatCoiner]

Is there a realized cap availabble for Bitcoins that have moved >= 1 time?

I guess that means you want to deduct all the unspent coinbase rewards since 2009. I don't think there's any tool or website for that, you'll have to write the code yourself.

There's no essential information you can extract from that statistic, however. We frequently notice coins mined in 2010 being spent more than decade later. Lost coins are only the provably lost, which amount to less than 5 thousand. All the rest are just speculation.

[o48o]

Coins that have not moved in 15 years are not definitely coins that are lost!
-cut-

One strong argument for this if that old wallets does get activated from time to time.

Secondly: OG whales probably own several wallets like Winklevoss brothers have, and have no reason to move most of them, because just touching them is an unnecessary security risk.

[seoincorporation]

The market cap is one thing and the amount of bitcoin in the market are two diferente thing, one is based in the amount of money that People has inyected in the market and the second one is the total amount of bitcoin that you can see in exchanges.

I know some coins are gone for ver, but there are a lot of coins in the market, so, is not a big issue.