The probability is unimaginable!

[CryptoHeadlineNews]

I've registered atleast 500,000 tickets(including coupon tickets and virtual games) and more for the whole, lengthy period of my working experience; The thing is, I've never been awarded a jackpot on my customer's ticket so, I was left with no choice than to imagine the proportion of distribution of jackpots across several users and how lucky one might really need to be

That's gambling for you, where some persons could gamble their entire life and still not hit a jackpot, because the possibility of winning a jackpot is not dependent on how long you have gambled, but how lucky you are to pick the lucky ticket. Because there have been scenarios where a first timer was recorded to have won a jackpot.

... Not until it fell on another cashier's account and the winner wasn't even surprised! Fifteen hundred dollars and he acted very cold!
He acted as though he's lost way too much to win $1,500 luckily.

Maybe he was expecting a huge amount to be won, but moreover, fifteen hundred is still a good sum of money for one to have appreciated if lucky to have won. But moreover, another factor to consider why he seems not to be happy for such luck is looking at how much that gambler use in buying the tickets which gave him that $1500,

, what's the probability that a jackpot hits a ticket?

The probability of a jackpot to hit a ticket can only be determined by how many of such tickets available to be sold in the market, because of the tickets are over one million, then the probability of winning will be one over one million tickets (i.e 1/1,000,000= 0.000001% chance of winning). But if the total tickets are only 500 pieces, then such gambler who buys only just 1 tickets should be having (i.e 1/500= 0.002% chance of winning)

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Maybe he has lost far more than that amount that he finally won from that jackpot, or perhaps it could just be that he was not in a good mood that day. Some people are not actually moved by any amount that they know they are capable of earning in the short term, or maybe their net worth is even far beyond that figure. 

For example, if your net worth is about $1 million and you win a jackpot of $15k, you may not really react so much to your win because it's not the first time you have earned such a large a large amount of money. 

For my long years of gambling, I have not won jackpots. I know it doesn't happen regularly, and it takes a lucky gambler to bet at the right time when the casino is giving out the jackpot. 

[Hispo]

Actually, it is true when we talk about certain statistical topics, like lottery tickets or cryptography, it is true we are dealing with such small percentages which is difficult to imagine something comparable to them within our daily routine. We can think of 3 apples or 5 cars/vehicles, because we have already witnesses those numbers in real life, on the other hand, it could be difficult for us to picture what such a small percentage of 0,00000001% actually means.
That is why within statistics we see practical examples, like Bitcoin with their number of possible public keys being compared with the number of hydrogen atoms in the sea, or comparing the number of stars in the galaxy with the number of sand grains in a beach.
The chances are low, when the numbers of negative results are high. There are different ways to approach the problem of actually having a perceptions of those figures  

[Gozie51]

*What do y'all think of his reaction?
* According to your own prejudice, what's the probability that a jackpot hits a ticket?

I don't think probability exist in this because it is not about how many times that you have tried to pull the big win but how lucky you can be because if going by the numbers of times, many have tried without success. Winning jackpot is not what you have to get because you have played and lost for longtime,. Some times it is just luck like I have witnessed with some friend who got angry playing with small bankroll and then increased his bet but didn't survive it as he lost all. I have also seen a gambler played for few times and won jackpot.

[Yatsan]

*What do y'all think of his reaction?
* According to your own prejudice, what's the probability that a jackpot hits a ticket?

I don't think probability exist in this because it is not about how many times that you have tried to pull the big win but how lucky you can be because if going by the numbers of times, many have tried without success. Winning jackpot is not what you have to get because you have played and lost for longtime,. Some times it is just luck like I have witnessed with some friend who got angry playing with small bankroll and then increased his bet but didn't survive it as he lost all. I have also seen a gambler played for few times and won jackpot.

Absolutely, if such probability really happens then many gamblers should at least experience winning the jackpot if we would base on the population of gamblers and the number of bets they made. What makes sense is that,  the more and longer you gambler your chances of winning will be increased making sense to the idea of quantity of trial vs chances of hitting it. However, not all people have unlimited or high resource of funds to extend their betting instances. In this case, the only thing a player could rely on is luck. Some gamblers managed to win in few tries and some are even on their first bet which is believed to be beginner's luck. Bottomline is to be ready in both possibilities of winning or losing 'coz nothing guarantees what we hope for our bets.

[mirakal]

* According to your own prejudice, what's the probability that a jackpot hits a ticket?

Those who are extremely lucky can get jackpots even with a few tickets while the ones who aren't lucky may have to try their luck by purchasing 100's of thousands of tickets and still they may not hit any jackpot.

It's game of luck not of probability, and I'm pretty sure that most of us are aware of that. Luck is the main factor to decide that whether someone will hit a jackpot or not and that's why we can't really calculate anything accurately when it comes to luck.

You're definitely right. If luck is only on your side, you won't have to risk a lot of money in order to win but even a single or few tickets would still make you the most profitable of them all. Remember that you are not trading but certainly gambling, so what you need is more of a luck rather than a big capital. Gambling relies on probability, and if you think the probability to win is far or unimaginable, better to stop what you're doing and just gamble on what you can afford to lose, without chasing big wins and jackpots because that could only mean bigger losses in next days or weeks.

[Sandra_hakeem]

Is this an incentive to write comments faster?

I don't know what you're talking about.

This is a good proof of the fact that people don't understand probability. If they had it calculated and the number before their eyes, they'd never buy a ticket. They'd know it's money thrown away.
When we don't see the numbers we think that we have 1:1000 chance or something, but in reality it's not even 1:1m. When you actually visualize that you get a headache.

The truth is that we never said we wanted chasing 'em slot tickets or lotteries until it's selected for a jackpot. I was only having a deep thought on what the probability would be, since I haven't been paid throughout my entire working experience in the casino.

My advice, switch to another casino that has a good reputation, who knows if your jackpot will be there, it's not there at the current casino you are playing at, I've done that, casinos [1] are not very friendly to me, I tried the second casino [2] they accepted me well, even though they haven't given me the jackpot, at least I played there was a pull, that's my experience.

maybe switching would help, but the topic didn't say anything about looking for a means to win the jackpot. It was only about the PROBABILITY for crying out loud...

[Weawant]

Some persons have actually lost a good some playing game at the casino and that's why when the win what appears to be like a huge some of money, they still act cold because of they should make some calculations and add things up, they would still be suffering losses so obviously they are not going to be excited about any of those win at any time it did happened. One other thing is in the fact that this wins not coming frequently doesn't excite people that much again because they have lost so much already.
The chances of winning a jackpot is and has always been very slim and never easy, that's why it has to be one out of too many such trials and for me I don't even try to boder my mind on getting a jackpot but just playing and hope I get lucky some day.

[Casdinyard]

Personally, I'd say it takes atleast 1 of 40/50 tries to secure a huge win on casino games! Could be more, could be less...(it all depends on the game in question, and what your favourite betting options are) On the other hand, it may take 1 of 100,000^th tries to get lucky that a jackpot hits your ticket... It could take even longer tries and nothing of such comes...
I've registered atleast 500,000 tickets(including coupon tickets and virtual games) and more for the whole, lengthy period of my working experience; The thing is, I've never been awarded a jackpot on my customer's ticket so, I was left with no choice than to imagine the proportion of distribution of jackpots across several users and how lucky one might really need to be... Not until it fell on another cashier's account and the winner wasn't even surprised! Fifteen hundred dollars and he acted very cold!
He acted as though he's lost way too much to win $1,500 luckily. Meanwhile, I was more concerned about the probability, the odds of it happening atleast ONCE!
*What do y'all think of his reaction?
* According to your own prejudice, what's the probability that a jackpot hits a ticket?

Edit: I think I'd have to lock this topic after 40 replies.

You'd need way more than 500,000 tickets at least mathematically before you could even stand a chance at winning a jackpot, and from the looks of it he probably did lose more than 1500 which is why he's acting like that. No way in hell I'd be acting so high and cold after winning what is the equivalent of a standard employee's 3 months of paycheck here in the Philippines. Lol. In any case, going back, the odds are so magnanimously low that you'd be better off watching paint dry than hope that you'd get something out of your win, and you being the cashier, you get to see in first person just how fucked up lotteries are if you really put your mind into it.

Now, when it comes to the probability, I could only relate it to a lottery that I grew up knowing, and that is the PCSO lottery here in the Philippines, Last I checked, the odds of winning the standard jackpot of a lottery season which is around 50 million pesos, approximately round 1 million dollars, is 1 in 35 million. You're better off working your ass on 60 hour shifts every day for the rest of your life to earn that amount of money than actually trying your luck with that game.

[Sandra_hakeem]

Last I checked, the odds of winning the standard jackpot of a lottery season which is around 50 million pesos, approximately round 1 million dollars, is 1 in 35 million. You're better off working your ass on 60 hour shifts every day for the rest of your life to earn that amount of money than actually trying your luck with that game.

For the standard lottery, it could be more, it could be less but that ain't even the case here. You ain't just grabbing your device, completing some KYC protocols and wagering on casinos just to see what the probability of hitting a jackpot (regardless of win) would be like. You could get into trouble yunno....

Y'all ain't even thinking - what if he was super excited and didn't even know how to react? Just, what if? There's no gambler with an expectation of hitting the jackpot exactly at the right time it happens; you could either be thinking of recovering and maintaining your bankroll to not drift too much then, BOOM!!!

[bitcoin_mining]

There are many possibilities in gambling but not all possibilities come true. I placed a bet and at one stage of the game it appeared that I would win the match and the outcome of the bet was in my favor but moments later the outcome changed completely and the odds went the other way. Gambling is more risky and here the outcome can change every moment so with all these risks then a gambler has to gamble. Decisions in gambling should be made in such a way that we can win there unless something unexpected happens.

[Saint-loup]

Unfortunately, if you don't want to reveal or to explain precisely which game you are referring to, nobody will be able to give you an accurate answer about even the order of magnitude of the actual likelihood to win the jackpot of the game you're talking about. But if it's a national lottery I'm not surprised by the reaction of the person mentioned in the topic, because their house edge is lower than 60%, mostly 50%, meaning that even big winners are very likely to not be in profit over their overall playing interval. Alani123 has posted this link in another thread, it allows people to make simulations of longtime playing sessions on the most famous national lotteries. As you could see, even if you play more than 50 years at the same game you're not likely to win the jackpot actually. https://www.cuandomevaatocar.com/

[Alone055]

*What do y'all think of his reaction?
* According to your own prejudice, what's the probability that a jackpot hits a ticket?

He probably wasn't happy with the win and we all know why. A gambler who has lost a lot of money would barely be happy or enjoy a win that is way below the total amount they have lost so far, and this probably was the case with the guy which is why his reaction was so sold even after hitting that win.

A responsible gambler or someone who doesn't spend a lot of money on their gambling activities and usually moves on after a loss would still be happy if they get a big win regardless of how small or big the win is because such people consider big wins bonuses and they gamble with the mindset that the chances of them losing are higher than them winning.

[Mr. Magkaisa]

*What do y'all think of his reaction?
* According to your own prejudice, what's the probability that a jackpot hits a ticket?

I don't think probability exist in this because it is not about how many times that you have tried to pull the big win but how lucky you can be because if going by the numbers of times, many have tried without success. Winning jackpot is not what you have to get because you have played and lost for longtime,. Some times it is just luck like I have witnessed with some friend who got angry playing with small bankroll and then increased his bet but didn't survive it as he lost all. I have also seen a gambler played for few times and won jackpot.

           -   Getting the jackpot actually depends on who they want to give it to. Let's just remember that they are the manipulators of every casino in the crypto business industry. No gambler controls the game unless he gets really lucky playing it.

It's just that it's rare for someone like that to always get a winning jackpot in a casino because it's really a huge amount. That's why those casinos only do it for greed; that's why they control the games most of the time.

[KTChampions]

I don't think probability exist in this because it is not about how many times that you have tried to pull the big win but how lucky you can be because if going by the numbers of times, many have tried without success. Winning jackpot is not what you have to get because you have played and lost for longtime,. Some times it is just luck like I have witnessed with some friend who got angry playing with small bankroll and then increased his bet but didn't survive it as he lost all. I have also seen a gambler played for few times and won jackpot.

The jackpot usually lies far beyond the 500 thousand attempts that the OP made. Let’s say the chance of getting the jackpot is one in ten million, then the OP has gone only 5% of the way which would allow him to get it with a high degree of confidence.
The fact that some people win after making one or two attempts does not mean anything, since in order to see how probability works in such cases we need to see hundreds of millions of attempts.