Well, I will end this season in disgrace. Losing badly and not learning my lesson.
And if you think I'll be looking to cut losses, or at least bet on good teams, you're wrong.
Love the bet on Spurs !
Yep I'd rather you stay with this type of betting pattern atleast until the season ends though so we could get the overall statistics from this pattern. Anyway Im just throwing this out here but are you continuing with this pattern as well after the season ends ? Euro is coming on June though so Im kinda wondering if you will stick with this on Euro
Thank you for following the thread! You may not know this but it used to be almost every other day in the first few seasons but real life has gotten to a point where I'm short on time and can't really hunt around for value...
... which brings me to the point of this thread, which is actually to look for value. Comparing odds on books, and benefitting from the extra units from a promotion or simply, on features like boosts, or just on a market that's oversized the other way. At the top of this thread you see the units count almost at 100000. An average bet here in 100 units. That's almost 100 times more value over 5 seasons of betting, if you just make sure you use the book that has the best odds. The longer the odds, the bigger the value, usually.
But to answer your questions:
- yes, the pattern is always the same.
- And yes, if I have time here for Euros, it will feature here. Traditionally, this thread season ends with Champions League final and starts with English Charity Shield.
- Pattern explained simply: Majority long odds on a single market (there's where the biggest value is, especially with price boosts). I do play around with accas but as Trofo and others have pointed out in the past, that's not my strong suit and I should stick to value underdogs.
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I suspect, with discipline, and a bigger sample, you generally should come out on top.
a. On anecdotal experience this season, I have done well on some bets I didn't post here -- mainly because I didn't have time, or I simply wasn't sure if I actually did snag the best odds. Saudi Arabia 22/1 during the World Cup was an example! I was too busy watching the game!
b. The evidence supporting this theory of a bigger sample is from early seasons where I probably posted almost every value bet I identified (you can refer to OP for historical results and links):
350 bets in S01 (81% profit)
435 bets in S02 (122% profit)
429 bets in S03 (101% profit)
139 bets in S04 (0.38% profit
And
only 86 bets so far in this 5th season. Which will be a losing season of almost -50% of the 10,000 unit bankroll so far.
KTChampions will agree with me here, because the odds are long, if we correlate odds with probability, I should experience more wins on a larger sample, 86 bets is too small to allow for variance. So this pattern works... but only if you are diligent with studying for value and taking those value bets.
That all said, I return once more to the original purpose of the thread, which isn't about profit or loss, but about gaining value. Expressed overall by the
Units Advantage tally =) A secondary purpose was to create a true "tipster" thread that not only accumulated data over years, but retained proof of the bets (sadly, most links no longer work with defunct books or expired betslips but the post itself I think is a good historical record), and tracked actual bankroll. I only ever saw tipsters with cherry-picked bets, or with win percentage -- which is absolutely useless without bankroll tracking.
Thank you for your questions, I enjoy discussions on this the way people like trading haha.
Follow buwaytress for more non-expert, amateur longshot advice
