My current analysis for BTC possible bounce or breakout today!!!

[BitMaxz]

I want to share my analysis, and I'm hoping someone could share some more ideas about this chart below, and maybe there's something that I didn't notice in my analysis. Hoping some pro traders and positional traders out there could share some pro tricks.

So far this is my analysis below with a daily timeframe:



Scenario #1:
Possible bounce at around $112k on August 20, 2025, and it might be just a retracement and going to retake to hit $125k.
Reason: Stochastic oversold signal.

Scenario #2: Possible breakout, and it might go down more below $106k-$108k, and it might bounce near the anchored VWAP.
Reason: RSI is not oversold yet, and there is no divergence signal yet.

Take note: This is not a financial advice; don't use this analysis to risk your capital. This is my own analysis; you can correct me if I am wrong.

[GreatArkansas]

What's the support to watch so we will know it will fall below the level of $106,000 - $108,000?
It seems that we fell from $115,000; it just continues to dump. From the recent peak around $124,000, this seems the lowest dump it has gotten so far. Could be more or already best opportunity to buy the dip.

[Oshosondy]

A good support can be at $110000 which I think I have discussed before but that was before bitcoin later increase above $120000 again and got to over $124000. Also the same thing still applies but in a way that the support move down a little but now at $110000 as it was still at a price slightly above $110000 before. Bitcoin must not fall below $110000 because if it falls below that price, it is not a good indication at all.

[Faisal2202]

Scenario #2: Possible breakout, and it might go down more below $106k-$108k, and it might bounce near the anchored VWAP.
Reason: RSI is not oversold yet, and there is no divergence signal yet.

Take note: This is not a financial advice; don't use this analysis to risk your capital. This is my own analysis; you can correct me if I am wrong.

I will choose scenario 2 because of the JP speech at 22 August can dump the market, even if the FOMC turn out to be good today, and market bounces back from the current price but the speech can bring bad impact to the price and considering the already dump it can dump more and I also think the ranges you gave from $106k to $108k are possible here or maybe it can go even lower.

This chart is very clear to me, and I am very positive on a dump to $105k as you mentioned, it is not financial advice it is just what I think of the market, but maybe after 22 August market makes a good pattern and we will see it retest its ATH again.

[joeperry]

Interesting setup, thanks for sharing it with us. The BTC is still respecting that big ascending channel and the $125k rejection is not surprising but what I'd watch is the momentum. The RSI is already low but the price isn't showing any strong reversal candle yet, if the buyers can't hold the $112k, we might not just retest $108k but would even see a deeper dip towards the middle of the channel before the bulls comes again.

On the other hand, a quick pump to $115k could bring it back to $120k easily.

[Zaguru12]

Interesting setup, thanks for sharing it with us. The BTC is still respecting that big ascending channel and the $125k rejection is not surprising but what I'd watch is the momentum. The RSI is already low but the price isn't showing any strong reversal candle yet, if the buyers can't hold the $112k, we might not just retest $108k but would even see a deeper dip towards the middle of the channel before the bulls comes again.

On the other hand, a quick pump to $115k could bring it back to $120k easily.

Also wasn’t suprised seeing bitcoin actually dipping immediately after it created this recent all time high, I was actually expecting it considering that technically they were some inducement left behind when you look at the internal chart and I was expecting it to actually filled up those spaces gaps and that’s exactly what it did. The only FVG or inducement left is that at the region of $109k and I expect it to only come to fill it if the bearish sentiment spread continues.

But I will say the market isn’t overbought at the moment to think that sellers will get in control, I think that little weak hands have been shacked off and we might see the market actually doing a double bottom (W) by actually going up from this $112k support. For me I still don’t think we will go dipper than this.

[Bournesparks]

I want to share my analysis, and I'm hoping someone could share some more ideas about this chart below, and maybe there's something that I didn't notice in my analysis. Hoping some pro traders and positional traders out there could share some pro tricks.

So far this is my analysis below with a daily timeframe:



Scenario #1:
Possible bounce at around $112k on August 20, 2025, and it might be just a retracement and going to retake to hit $125k.
Reason: Stochastic oversold signal.

Scenario #2: Possible breakout, and it might go down more below $106k-$108k, and it might bounce near the anchored VWAP.
Reason: RSI is not oversold yet, and there is no divergence signal yet.

Take note: This is not a financial advice; don't use this analysis to risk your capital. This is my own analysis; you can correct me if I am wrong.

BTC will grab liquidity way below before moving up.. it's due

[Bitcoin_Arena]

The moment of truth will be there tomorrow (Friday), A few moments a way from now. I usually noticed some serious movements on Wednesday and Fridays. I right now we are at a support level, but I think we are going to breakout downwards towards that EMA. By Monday, we shall know the position of the market.

[shinratensei_]

It seems to be bouncing back looking up the latest price action.
But not that big of a bounce which indicate that it can still go down. We all know if support being retouched many time it will lose its buy orders and eventually can't hold.

This one supposed to be pretty strong support though. Will see how it plays out.

[BitMaxz]

It seems to be bouncing back looking up the latest price action.
But not that big of a bounce which indicate that it can still go down. We all know if support being retouched many time it will lose its buy orders and eventually can't hold.

This one supposed to be pretty strong support though. Will see how it plays out.

Well, we don't know but it looks like there's a reason why it bounces after touching that support in that area. After digging, it seems that it is because of the recent news about upcoming rate cuts in September, according to Powell.

I see a huge candle, and it is still pumping up. It looks like we are going to see $118k before the end of this day.
If $118k breaks where people place liquidity, then expect for $125k target as a new ATH, but if it fails, then it's just a retracement from the previous uptrend breakout.

[Pandorak]

It seems to be bouncing back looking up the latest price action.
But not that big of a bounce which indicate that it can still go down. We all know if support being retouched many time it will lose its buy orders and eventually can't hold.

This one supposed to be pretty strong support though. Will see how it plays out.

When viewed from a larger time frame, $110k-$111k is the strongest support (demand zone) that aligns with the daily and weekly charts. Of course, this is not easy to break down. After a rejection, the price will likely rise first, as is happening now, or this could even be a reversal point for the price to attempt to reach a new all-time high (ATH) again. However, i believe we are already at the end of the bull market, and it's just a matter of time before the bear market arrives. Additionally, there's been some good news recently, which has brought a breath of fresh air to the market, with most major coins already on the rise.

[BitMaxz]

Here's my update currently on my phone watching BTC and notice something that looks like it built a bullish megaphone pattern.
It also respected the EMA 126 which a support are on the previous dip around $98k as you can see on the image below. RSI is currently building a double bottom so this might be the end of bearish and let's see if the price could break the $113k liquidity.



If the $113k got broke then expect for more price pump this next few days.

Update: For another confluence
Adding this on SMC it is inside on OB. So there's a chance that this is the end of the dump.

[Bitcoin_Arena]

It looks like the drop might continue for another week

Like I said Last time, There are usually some serious movements on Fridays and sometimes on Wednesdays. From the looks of things, it seems ETH has also lost the upward momentum for now so I fancy Bitcoin correcting all the way to somewhere below $100K in the coming weeks.

[BitMaxz]

It looks like the drop might continue for another week

Like I said Last time, There are usually some serious movements on Fridays and sometimes on Wednesdays. From the looks of things, it seems ETH has also lost the upward momentum for now so I fancy Bitcoin correcting all the way to somewhere below $100K in the coming weeks.

But the $107,500 isn't broken yet and it still inside the megaphone pattern. Plus my confirmation looks like this would create a double bottom because there's a liquidity building up under $107,000 or below that area and for daily time frame using EMA150 it is already double bottom and possible there's upcoming reversal.
We might experience consolidation today or bullish order block and EMA150 are confluence it must be bullish within this week but still risky since the previous trend still not broken. For some traders they take this opportunity as try and error meaning they risk here and hold if success because it's a strong bullish sign but if failed the next target price to entry is $105k or around $103k.

Here's my current chart:


If price bullish within this week and the $110k and $111k broke based on fibonacci sequence then there's a possibility of market shift if tha price broke I'm going to wait for a pullback in 50% fibonacci or the golden zone if it reacts on that area I might buy as my try and error.