Climate Could Upend Everything (Even Bitcoin)

[slapper]

When the very meaning of the word "value" itself is melting, literally, what happens to your "store of value"? Stay with me. This is not another fear-porn apocalypse thread (Stormpix always say I spread fear ) . Or, well, maybe it is, but this one got charts, anecdotes, and a few predictions for Asia big play

Remember the scenes outside Lehman? Cardboard boxes, empty stares, billions vaporized overnight. That was the last great “oops” moment of global finance. But nobody was talking about hurricanes, wildfires, or climate models then. The big bad wolf was bad debt. Now? It is the elements themselves. This time, the dominoes do not fall from sketchy mortgages. They fall because insurers start quitting states. First California, then Florida, then a not-so-slow roll across the map. No insurance = no mortgage. No mortgage = no banking = no property value. That is a doom loop. Property, the “safest” thing you could own, is going from wealth engine to “hot potato”

“Storms so bad, insurer says next year Im on my own. Should I move my stash to BTC?” It is a worldwide pattern now. Dubai, Valencia, LA, Korea, Japan, even Australian floodplain cities - insurance markets are collapsing faster than FTX did. If banks cannot price risk, nobody can

The Asia Pivot:
- Asia is in the front line: Monster typhoons, mega-rains and now mega-insurance repricing
- China has already been shifting money into renewables, with more than $800bn last year alone, more than the US and EU combined
- Real estate as collateral: Megacities in Asia are constructed on the basis of property bubbles + weak insurance market

So, what happens when Tokyo or Hong Kong starts getting “red-zoned” by the big reinsurers? What happens when Southeast Asia’s new middle class can’t get property cover, or can only buy homes in “safe” zones priced for the 1%?

Real estate as retirement = broken narrative. Middle class gets “priced out” of safety. So do they move to Bitcoin? Governments may plug the gap, but their coffers are stretched, just look at FEMA in the US getting kneecapped, or local governments forced to pick up the tab. Is BTC immune? If property as a store of value collapses, will capital chase digital scarcity? What if grid reliability wobbles during climate chaos? Are you ready to live off a hardware wallet in a blackout?

[Ucy]

Bitcoin is choas resistant, but the resistance (or immunity) largely depends on the protection from the extraordinary, coupled with building on strong foundation, like adhering to the ideals of Bitcoin.

When evil is increasing, choas tends to follow, at this point you start adapting to a nomadic/mobile lifestyle which is according to the Bitcoin principles. It's better to sell lands and only hold necessary things that can help you live as a nomad. Try to acquire easy-to-move, foldable and/or modular properties. When you notice something chaotic is about to happen, you quickly move to safe locations with your belongings.
Consume and believe in good quality information, it will form a strong protective bubble around you to help you become choas resistant. Find someone or people with such information, he/they would be promoting Bitcoin according to its ideals like decentralization, transparency, immutability etc. The information is light and the light is from the CREATOR. When people stick to the one who spread good information, and believe what they say, they will become immune to choas.  Interestingly he or they are being used in extraordinary ways to keep Bitcoin safe.  Which is part of the main reasons we are sure Bitcoin is immune.

[coupable]

I reread op topic three times and didn't understand exactly what he was trying to say. Does he mean that climate change in the form of natural disasters can affect everything, including Bitcoin? Sorry if my answer may be off-topic, but I'll try to answer based on what I understand.

In simple terms, yes, natural disasters have a direct impact on everything, and Bitcoin is not immune to external influences. However, Bitcoin is better able to withstand these influences than other products, especially when it comes to investment products. Unlike other products, Bitcoin can be positively impacted during natural disasters after people lose confidence in traditional investments, and Bitcoin becomes a profitable investment opportunity as well as a safe store of value.

[Kagaru]

This is a strong message and this is truly more of a wake-up call than fear-mongering. You are correct in that, the concept of value is changing and climate risks are accelerating this change faster than most people have adjusted. Real estate was never unsafe as it was tangible and long term, but in case the land becomes uninhabitable or not insurable, the security is no more. It is possible that people can begin to regard digital assets such as Bitcoin as the best alternative next not because it would be perfect, but because it is not bound by borders, nor limited by how it can be carried nor susceptible to floods and wildfires. However, using digital exclusively in this world of power outage is also questionable. Perhaps again the solution lies in diversification, not in investing everything in a single source of value, whether real or virtual.

[WillyAp]

Most likely not in this century or at the very end of it.
A war is more likely. 

[Ruttoshi]

Bitcoin stands the chance of surviving any natural disaster that will affect physical assets which is on a landed property. Bitcoin is digital and not only one person run the network. It comprises of many nodes from different part of the world. Therefore, bitcoin will definitely survive as long as the world wouldn't come to an end.

What you should think of is the people holding their bitcoin in their self custody, because if they die in natural disaster, without anyone knowing how to access their bitcoin, that is when their bitcoin is lost. You can have access to your bitcoin in any part of the world as long as a have an internet and your seed phrase with you.

[takuma sato]

I reread op topic three times and didn't understand exactly what he was trying to say. Does he mean that climate change in the form of natural disasters can affect everything, including Bitcoin? Sorry if my answer may be off-topic, but I'll try to answer based on what I understand.

In simple terms, yes, natural disasters have a direct impact on everything, and Bitcoin is not immune to external influences. However, Bitcoin is better able to withstand these influences than other products, especially when it comes to investment products. Unlike other products, Bitcoin can be positively impacted during natural disasters after people lose confidence in traditional investments, and Bitcoin becomes a profitable investment opportunity as well as a safe store of value.

Yeah I think that is what OP meant. If climate change increases all the world's temperature averages, then it will be rougher to keep the machines cold. Plus you have to factor in the increased environmental phenomena related to higher temperatures, such as hurricanes, typhoons, earthquakes and so on. But these things will impact all industries, so it's not different. You will have to adapt. And Bitcoin is a global permissionless network, so you can plug in and out machines as needed without any meetings with the CEO. Each miner operation will come up with their own plan. This means BTC is very efficient compared to other industries. AI datacenters will have to adapt and plan with clients, with BTC there is no clients, you just plug the machines and go.

[₿itcoin]

This time Dominoes are falling causes for climate chaos, not for bad debt. Insurance companies are pulling out from disaster prone areas.
And thats clamps down on real estate, seems a slowmotion Lehman moment. Prices are falling continuously mortgages are drying up, as a result banks are failing, doom loop sucks.

Asia is facing typhoons, floods and mega rains, reinsurers are pulling back, Tokyo and HK are in red zone by reinsurers. Middle class people are stagnating. If property collapses, capital may shift to digital assets like bitcoin. But the problem is Bitcoin mining itself consumes electricity and straining the grid. It is also part of the climate problem.

Bitcoin could be a portable fire resistant resource. You know tech is part of both the problem and the solution.

[FinneysTrueVision]

I reread op topic three times and didn't understand exactly what he was trying to say. Does he mean that climate change in the form of natural disasters can affect everything, including Bitcoin? Sorry if my answer may be off-topic, but I'll try to answer based on what I understand.

If these posts sound like nonsense, it’s because they’re artificially generated. He spreads out posts just enough so they aren’t considered burst posting, but the interval still seems too short to be natural for somebody writing these long walls of text while also controlling at least one other currently active alt account and an altcointalks account that are also writing really long posts. They also use humanization tools to avoid detection. On chain evidence suggests they are an alt of ChuckBuck, one of the largest account farmers the forum has ever had.

[Fortify]

I don't think that many people incorporate or even understand the possible climate change ramifications that are coming - mostly because we cannot even imagine what the shift of a few degrees can really do to the entire planet. We are potentially about to enter an era where the ice caps disappear, which would send weather systems haywire and we start to enter a super heated oven, which some will tolerate and adapt to survive, yet others will simply get wiped out. It's all of our own doing of course, since we have spread pollution and abuse/exhausted resources all over the planet. Scientists have been sounding alarm bells for decades now, but on the relentless march of capitalism and environmental abuse goes, but we are all guilty of reveling in its rewards. Let's just say I would not like to see the state of the planet in another 30 years because things like temperature rises create a snowball effect where the avalanche (or disastrous outcomes) or consequences get ever larger as time goes on. Unfortunately humanity simply cannot help or control itself on a group level, they can barely do it on an individual level.

[tsaroz]

I don't think that many people incorporate or even understand the possible climate change ramifications that are coming - mostly because we cannot even imagine what the shift of a few degrees can really do to the entire planet. We are potentially about to enter an era where the ice caps disappear, which would send weather systems haywire and we start to enter a super heated oven, which some will tolerate and adapt to survive, yet others will simply get wiped out. It's all of our own doing of course, since we have spread pollution and abuse/exhausted resources all over the planet. Scientists have been sounding alarm bells for decades now, but on the relentless march of capitalism and environmental abuse goes, but we are all guilty of reveling in its rewards. Let's just say I would not like to see the state of the planet in another 30 years because things like temperature rises create a snowball effect where the avalanche (or disastrous outcomes) or consequences get ever larger as time goes on. Unfortunately humanity simply cannot help or control itself on a group level, they can barely do it on an individual level.

The cycle of glacial and inter-glacial periods is occurring even before the existence of humans. We are at a later stage of ice age where we still have glaciers at are poles, when these polar ice melts, we enter into a inter-glacial period. It would not be the first time humans are experiencing it but this time we are more prepared than the last time.
Human activities do effect the climate but its negligible compared to what natural causes does it. Still we human with our technology could try to counter it making the earth more suitable to live with Geo-engineering. Human induced global warming would peak soon and if we have enough will power, me may induce Global cooling. It might not be enough to counter the natural causes but at least we could do our best to keep the temperature favorable to us.

[franky1]

Remember the scenes outside Lehman? Cardboard boxes, empty stares, billions vaporized overnight. That was the last great “oops” moment of global finance. But nobody was talking about hurricanes, wildfires, or climate models then. The big bad wolf was bad debt. Now? It is the elements themselves. This time, the dominoes do not fall from sketchy mortgages. They fall because insurers start quitting states. First California, then Florida, then a not-so-slow roll across the map. No insurance = no mortgage. No mortgage = no banking = no property value. That is a doom loop. Property, the “safest” thing you could own, is going from wealth engine to “hot potato”

the thing about the insurance scandal is also part of the real estate development scandal

previously and initially
US houses that are made of wood and fibre boards(designed to be quick cheap builds), is due to the economics of: if in the unlikely event of full house destruction an insurance company can fund a rebuild cheaply..

however compared to say UK brick houses, the cheap US builds are weaker and more prone to be complete write offs with medium level storms, which are becoming more regular, which is causing more complete destruction->rebuilds to occur in the US

and so insurance companies dont want to insure these cheap built homes anymore because the high risk of total destruction..

what will happen is developers whom build cheap wood homes but cant be insured, thus cant sell.. will start making more sturdy homes from proper long lasting material such as brick, and these brick houses will get insured in places like california. homes that wont collapse in storms, fires or earthquakes. (thus cheaper on insurers due to not needing to do full rebuiilds and only need to contract minor repairs)

just look at places like chicago which had major city length fires in previous century(1871). they then built brick houses ontop the burned homes of weaker material, using stronger material such as brick. due to new safety permits requiring homes to be made from such material to pass inspections and thus become insurable
as for how climate can affect bitcoin,
i see this more emotional fear/scare tactic effects of the market. rather than actual infrastructure risk of bitcoins network functionality

[philipma1957]

Remember the scenes outside Lehman? Cardboard boxes, empty stares, billions vaporized overnight. That was the last great “oops” moment of global finance. But nobody was talking about hurricanes, wildfires, or climate models then. The big bad wolf was bad debt. Now? It is the elements themselves. This time, the dominoes do not fall from sketchy mortgages. They fall because insurers start quitting states. First California, then Florida, then a not-so-slow roll across the map. No insurance = no mortgage. No mortgage = no banking = no property value. That is a doom loop. Property, the “safest” thing you could own, is going from wealth engine to “hot potato”

the thing about the insurance scandal is also part of the real estate development scandal

previously and initially
US houses that are made of wood and fibre boards(designed to be quick cheap builds), is due to the economics of: if in the unlikely event of full house destruction an insurance company can fund a rebuild cheaply..

however compared to say UK brick houses, the cheap US builds are weaker and more prone to be complete write offs with medium level storms, which are becoming more regular, which is causing more complete destruction->rebuilds to occur in the US

and so insurance companies dont want to insure these cheap built homes anymore because the high risk of total destruction..

what will happen is developers whom build cheap wood homes but cant be insured, thus cant sell.. will start making more sturdy homes from proper long lasting material such as brick, and these brick houses will get insured in places like california. homes that wont collapse in storms, fires or earthquakes. (thus cheaper on insurers due to not needing to do full rebuiilds and only need to contract minor repairs)

just look at places like chicago which had major city length fires in previous century(1871). they then built brick houses ontop the burned homes of weaker material, using stronger material such as brick. due to new safety permits requiring homes to be made from such material to pass inspections and thus become insurable
as for how climate can affect bitcoin,
i see this more emotional fear/scare tactic effects of the market. rather than actual infrastructure risk of bitcoins network functionality

yeah form cast concrete with stainless steel rebar will be the rule near seawater by 2050.

this will solve a lot of problems.


venice has dealt with water for hundreds of years. properly built buildings can deal with water. and wind.

And yeah Trump will be ending Fema and dumping flood misery on the public in 2026.

I will be moving in 2026 so I will be very careful when picking a new home.


Oh the netherlands 🇳🇱 has reclaimed more than ⅓ of its country’s land from the sea.

also New Orleans has a lot of reclaimed land via dikes and levies.

[slapper]

Bitcoin is choas resistant, but the resistance (or immunity) largely depends on the protection from the extraordinary, coupled with building on strong foundation, like adhering to the ideals of Bitcoin.

When evil is increasing, choas tends to follow, at this point you start adapting to a nomadic/mobile lifestyle which is according to the Bitcoin principles. It's better to sell lands and only hold necessary things that can help you live as a nomad. Try to acquire easy-to-move, foldable and/or modular properties. When you notice something chaotic is about to happen, you quickly move to safe locations with your belongings.
Consume and believe in good quality information, it will form a strong protective bubble around you to help you become choas resistant. Find someone or people with such information, he/they would be promoting Bitcoin according to its ideals like decentralization, transparency, immutability etc. The information is light and the light is from the CREATOR. When people stick to the one who spread good information, and believe what they say, they will become immune to choas.  Interestingly he or they are being used in extraordinary ways to keep Bitcoin safe.  Which is part of the main reasons we are sure Bitcoin is immune.

The idea that real chaos resistance should be about mindset and how we choose to travel through the storm. Bitcoin, at its core, is movement, freedom to pick up and go, both with our value and with our principles. Both “nomad” and “node” keep moving, both survive by staying light and adaptable. In a world where the ground is always shifting (floods here, fires there, markets melting) sometimes the best anchor is no anchor at all. Letting go of what weighs us down, holding only what helps us stay alive and stay true

I reread op topic three times and didn't understand exactly what he was trying to say. Does he mean that climate change in the form of natural disasters can affect everything, including Bitcoin? Sorry if my answer may be off-topic, but I'll try to answer based on what I understand.

In simple terms, yes, natural disasters have a direct impact on everything, and Bitcoin is not immune to external influences. However, Bitcoin is better able to withstand these influences than other products, especially when it comes to investment products. Unlike other products, Bitcoin can be positively impacted during natural disasters after people lose confidence in traditional investments, and Bitcoin becomes a profitable investment opportunity as well as a safe store of value.

Three reads is dedication!

Half the point is that it’s confusing, because the lines between “financial crisis,” “climate shock,” and “safe haven” are starting to blur in ways nobody’s mapped before. But natural disasters hit everything, and Bitcoin’s whole “harder to confiscate, harder to freeze” gives it an edge over, say, suburban Florida real estate

If Bitcoin thrives on distrust, on chaos, then what happens if the “chaos” isn’t a one-off, but a rolling new normal? Imagine insurance markets permanently broken in three or four continents. Imagine every property bubble globally starting to leak, not pop. Does Bitcoin then become the new “home,” or does it become the new insurance? (And if everyone runs for the same exit, does the door stay open?)

Bitcoin stands the chance of surviving any natural disaster that will affect physical assets which is on a landed property. Bitcoin is digital and not only one person run the network. It comprises of many nodes from different part of the world. Therefore, bitcoin will definitely survive as long as the world wouldn't come to an end.

What you should think of is the people holding their bitcoin in their self custody, because if they die in natural disaster, without anyone knowing how to access their bitcoin, that is when their bitcoin is lost. You can have access to your bitcoin in any part of the world as long as a have an internet and your seed phrase with you.

Bitcoin can withstand everything except: forgotten mnemonics, lost passphrases, holders wiped off the map before anyone gets the memo. Makes you wonder: all this digital immortality, and it is still fixed to a frail, twice-cursed flesh-and-blood body can disappear in a flood, or a fire, or an earthquake

Trustless with maximum trust in meatspace: who are you going to entrust your backup to? Family? Friends? One of those multi-sig time-locked schemes?

In the next big climate disaster, maybe it’s not just “how do I rebuild my house?” but “can I recover my keys?”

The nightmare scenario: a whole city hit, nobody recovers, and a new kind of digital ghost town. Wallets full, but utterly silent

[slapper]

I don't think that many people incorporate or even understand the possible climate change ramifications that are coming - mostly because we cannot even imagine what the shift of a few degrees can really do to the entire planet. We are potentially about to enter an era where the ice caps disappear, which would send weather systems haywire and we start to enter a super heated oven, which some will tolerate and adapt to survive, yet others will simply get wiped out. It's all of our own doing of course, since we have spread pollution and abuse/exhausted resources all over the planet. Scientists have been sounding alarm bells for decades now, but on the relentless march of capitalism and environmental abuse goes, but we are all guilty of reveling in its rewards. Let's just say I would not like to see the state of the planet in another 30 years because things like temperature rises create a snowball effect where the avalanche (or disastrous outcomes) or consequences get ever larger as time goes on. Unfortunately humanity simply cannot help or control itself on a group level, they can barely do it on an individual level.

Most people do not actually feel what a "few degrees" is until it is their city underwater, or they cannot step outside for a week because the air is soup. We are strangely programmed to blind to future issues, especially those that are too big to visualize the boundaries. It is like you know the avalanche is coming, yet still enjoy the skiing trip because it is sunny today. And yes, that so-called "group level" issue that you are talking about is the fundamental bug. People may be caring or adjusting individually, but the system is simply charging ahead, rewarding short-term victories and quietly ignoring the slow-motion wipeouts. We all enjoy the toys and convenience, but hate the bill when it finally comes

What I can not understand is how fast that snowball is gaining momentum now. It takes a single poor season and entire regions seem off-limits. But the majority of us just read the news and not the dominoes falling in the background. Maybe the secret, whatever it is, is to begin to connect those dots, rather than waiting for the avalanche comes banging at our own door

This time Dominoes are falling causes for climate chaos, not for bad debt. Insurance companies are pulling out from disaster prone areas.
And thats clamps down on real estate, seems a slowmotion Lehman moment. Prices are falling continuously mortgages are drying up, as a result banks are failing, doom loop sucks.

Asia is facing typhoons, floods and mega rains, reinsurers are pulling back, Tokyo and HK are in red zone by reinsurers. Middle class people are stagnating. If property collapses, capital may shift to digital assets like bitcoin. But the problem is Bitcoin mining itself consumes electricity and straining the grid. It is also part of the climate problem.

Bitcoin could be a portable fire resistant resource. You know tech is part of both the problem and the solution.

The “doom loop” really does suck, especially because there is no obvious bottom

Asia was once a safe place. Tokyo and Hong Kong were like strong castles. However, with the departure of the big insurance firms, even ordinary families are nervous. They no longer feel secure on the ground beneath their feet. When property ceases to work as a store of value, yeah, people will start looking at bitcoin or whatever digital lifeboat they can get. Fire-proof, portable, borderless, all has a big appeal when the map is literally changing

I agree. Tech is double-edged. Bitcoin is energy-hungry, and if mining adds to the climate heat, we are simply transferring the issues from one system to another. Maybe what we need is tech that can actually reinforce resilience, not just run for the exit. Maybe it’s new mining tech, or maybe it’s a fresh way of thinking about “value” that is less tied to land or power grids. Tech is neither the bad guy nor the good guy. It is only a tool, right?

~

the thing about the insurance scandal is also part of the real estate development scandal

previously and initially
US houses that are made of wood and fibre boards(designed to be quick cheap builds), is due to the economics of: if in the unlikely event of full house destruction an insurance company can fund a rebuild cheaply..

however compared to say UK brick houses, the cheap US builds are weaker and more prone to be complete write offs with medium level storms, which are becoming more regular, which is causing more complete destruction->rebuilds to occur in the US

and so insurance companies dont want to insure these cheap built homes anymore because the high risk of total destruction..

what will happen is developers whom build cheap wood homes but cant be insured, thus cant sell.. will start making more sturdy homes from proper long lasting material such as brick, and these brick houses will get insured in places like california. homes that wont collapse in storms, fires or earthquakes. (thus cheaper on insurers due to not needing to do full rebuiilds and only need to contract minor repairs)

just look at places like chicago which had major city length fires in previous century(1871). they then built brick houses ontop the burned homes of weaker material, using stronger material such as brick. due to new safety permits requiring homes to be made from such material to pass inspections and thus become insurable
as for how climate can affect bitcoin,
i see this more emotional fear/scare tactic effects of the market. rather than actual infrastructure risk of bitcoins network functionality

The US housing boom was constructed around the "cheap to rebuild" logic, which worked well as long as disasters were uncommon and insurance was a given. However, as storms leveling up, that equation simply reverses, complete write-offs rather than patch-up jobs, and the insurers attempt flee. Feels like a classic case of short-term savings setting up long-term pain

Completely agree, too, that when insurance backs away, builders will need to step up their game. You can not just keep wrapping sticks in siding and hoping for the best. Brick California? Perhaps it is the sequel. And you are right about Chicago. A hard lesson paid for in fire, and fixed by more intelligent building regulations. History repeats itself, just with different headlines

Yeah, hurricanes or floods are unlikely to be sweating the Bitcoin network, at least not directly. Perhaps climate headlines spread fears and drive people in or out of the market, but Satoshi protocol is not losing sleep over a weather warning. The real game, as you suggest, is what people are willing to hold on to when the ground shift, literally or financially

[davis196]

The Asia Pivot:
- Asia is in the front line: Monster typhoons, mega-rains and now mega-insurance repricing
- China has already been shifting money into renewables, with more than $800bn last year alone, more than the US and EU combined
- Real estate as collateral: Megacities in Asia are constructed on the basis of property bubbles + weak insurance market

So, what happens when Tokyo or Hong Kong starts getting “red-zoned” by the big reinsurers? What happens when Southeast Asia’s new middle class can’t get property cover, or can only buy homes in “safe” zones priced for the 1%?

Real estate as retirement = broken narrative. Middle class gets “priced out” of safety. So do they move to Bitcoin? Governments may plug the gap, but their coffers are stretched, just look at FEMA in the US getting kneecapped, or local governments forced to pick up the tab. Is BTC immune? If property as a store of value collapses, will capital chase digital scarcity? What if grid reliability wobbles during climate chaos? Are you ready to live off a hardware wallet in a blackout?

I think that most Asian cities are totally capable of surviving big typhoons or even major earthquakes(Mostly Japan).
China has "ghost cities" full of empty apartments. The supply of housing units in China is more than enough to cover a growing demand(the population of China is slowly declining, so I don't expect huge demand for apartments). Will the real state price bubble pop? Probably yes, but I don't see it as a bad thing. Maybe there's not enough supply of housing units in Japan and South Korea, but I'm sure that they will be fine in the long term. Switching from real estate investments to Bitcoin/crypto? I don't know about this. Asia is not the most crypto-friendly continent. However, things might change in the future.